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| | | |-+  What will be the closest state this year?
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Poll
Question: By percentage, not total votes
New Hampshire   -10 (12.7%)
Pennsylvania   -6 (7.6%)
Ohio   -10 (12.7%)
Michigan   -3 (3.8%)
Wisconsin   -1 (1.3%)
Iowa   -1 (1.3%)
Missouri   -9 (11.4%)
Florida   -1 (1.3%)
Virginia   -9 (11.4%)
North Carolina   -2 (2.5%)
New Mexico   -6 (7.6%)
Arizona   -1 (1.3%)
Colorado   -4 (5.1%)
Nevada   -15 (19%)
Other (please be specific)   -1 (1.3%)
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Total Voters: 78

Author Topic: What will be the closest state this year?  (Read 8084 times)
Torie
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« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2008, 01:07:37 pm »
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Close call between New Hampshire and Nevada (I picked Nevada), and others seem to agree. But Pennsylvania might be. I don't have a good handle on that state at present.
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« Reply #26 on: May 25, 2008, 01:19:15 pm »
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I'm gonna say Missouri.  Most people have it as a toss-up McCain or a lean McCain state.  I actually think it is a pure toss-up with only a very, very small tilt to McCain.  Obama can easily win this state.

I can see why people would say Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Really?  Not Oklahoma?

Haven't you been reading?  I've given up on the idea of Oklahoma being a swing state this year.  I still think Obama will do better than expected (maybe high 30s or 40%), but will still get crushed here.  I'm thinking the McCain/Obama numbers to be close to 2000.  In that election, Bush beat Gore 60-38.  I think it will be very similar this year.  It could also be another 1988 where Bush beat Dukakis 58-41, but no closer.
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« Reply #27 on: May 25, 2008, 05:54:17 pm »
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I'm gonna say Missouri.  Most people have it as a toss-up McCain or a lean McCain state.  I actually think it is a pure toss-up with only a very, very small tilt to McCain.  Obama can easily win this state.

I can see why people would say Michigan, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico.
Really?  Not Oklahoma?

Haven't you been reading?  I've given up on the idea of Oklahoma being a swing state this year.  I still think Obama will do better than expected (maybe high 30s or 40%), but will still get crushed here.  I'm thinking the McCain/Obama numbers to be close to 2000.  In that election, Bush beat Gore 60-38.  I think it will be very similar this year.  It could also be another 1988 where Bush beat Dukakis 58-41, but no closer.

But wasn't part of the Oklahoma results because Lloyd Bentsen was on the ticket? I seem to also recall that possibly helping Dukakis in Louisiana as well...
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« Reply #28 on: May 26, 2008, 10:40:37 am »
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Missouri will be the closest state, by far.
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« Reply #29 on: May 27, 2008, 12:04:59 am »
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nevada, that was my vote.

Ohio 2nd.
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« Reply #30 on: May 27, 2008, 12:23:14 am »
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Ohio, Colorado, then Nevada - followed by Virginia and Missouri. NH will be 3-5% for Obama.
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« Reply #31 on: May 27, 2008, 07:59:48 pm »
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I think if Missouri is the closest state, then Obama will win comfortably.
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« Reply #32 on: June 04, 2008, 09:33:52 pm »
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Kentucky
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« Reply #33 on: June 05, 2008, 02:08:59 am »
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Kentucky

You're even more pessimistic than I am.
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« Reply #34 on: June 05, 2008, 04:56:06 pm »
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Kentucky

Please, please let that be true.
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« Reply #35 on: June 11, 2008, 01:06:55 pm »
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I'll be optimistic and Say Missouri. I'm guessing that Obama will win by around 1500 votes.

I also expect Nevada, Virginia, and Ohio to all be decided by less than 1% FWIW.
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« Reply #36 on: June 15, 2008, 02:05:21 pm »
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The Old Dominion
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« Reply #37 on: June 18, 2008, 10:45:21 pm »
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It's starting to look like Virginia; it goes Obama by about 10,000 votes.
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« Reply #38 on: June 22, 2008, 10:37:52 pm »
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I think if Missouri is the closest state, then Obama will win comfortably.

So far, Nevada is the winner with 15 votes. Missouri is 3rd with 8 votes, and I agree with benconstine in his statement. New Hampshire, however, is 2nd with 10 votes. If this is the case, I have to say McCain would have the advantage nationally.
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« Reply #39 on: August 15, 2008, 07:08:45 am »
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What about Louisiana?

I'm sure the black vote will rise in November significantly, so it couldn't LA be pretty close, too? At least Clinton carried Louisiana by 12 pionts in 1996.
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« Reply #40 on: August 15, 2008, 07:27:05 am »
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What about Louisiana?

I'm sure the black vote will rise in November significantly, so it couldn't LA be pretty close, too? At least Clinton carried Louisiana by 12 pionts in 1996.

That's ridiculous. Obama will struggle to get 20% of the White Vote in LA. Allthough he will get 95% of African-Americans, their share will be no higher than 32%, with 30% most likely. That means, in the best case scenario, 44-45% in LA will vote for Obama.
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« Reply #41 on: August 15, 2008, 09:44:04 am »
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Ohio

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« Reply #42 on: August 15, 2008, 09:59:34 am »
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What about Louisiana?

I'm sure the black vote will rise in November significantly, so it couldn't LA be pretty close, too? At least Clinton carried Louisiana by 12 pionts in 1996.

LOL
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« Reply #43 on: August 15, 2008, 02:07:26 pm »
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Since I expect this to be a big year for Democrats, I'll say MO.

     Agreed. I figure McCain has a cieling of 47% in New Hampshire given his support of the troop surge.
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« Reply #44 on: August 15, 2008, 08:31:35 pm »
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I get the feeling it may be VA.  I hope it isn't, because if it looks like it will be that means we'll be deluged with TV ads, phone calls, and polls from Labor Day until early November. 

But I get a feeling it'll be VA. 
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« Reply #45 on: August 17, 2008, 06:09:33 pm »
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I get the feeling it may be VA.  I hope it isn't, because if it looks like it will be that means we'll be deluged with TV ads, phone calls, and polls from Labor Day until early November. 

But I get a feeling it'll be VA. 

Nah.

Consider yourself lucky.  We'll get very little attention in Alabama.
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« Reply #46 on: August 17, 2008, 08:42:07 pm »
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I get the feeling it may be VA.  I hope it isn't, because if it looks like it will be that means we'll be deluged with TV ads, phone calls, and polls from Labor Day until early November. 

But I get a feeling it'll be VA. 

Nah.

Consider yourself lucky.  We'll get very little attention in Alabama.

We couldn't tell from the number of polls released.
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