What posters' precincts will be the 5 most lopsided in each direction this year?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

For Obama:

1-J. J.
2-me
3-Sam Spade
4-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty
5-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty

I'm not sure if SamSpade will beat me, but mine was 85.66% for Kerry and has far more blacks than Hispanics, while I'm guessing his has more Hispanics than blacks. Plus Kerry did better in Minneapolis than Brooklyn.

For McCain:

1-Evilmexicandictator
2-BushOklahoma
3-Torie

meh, this one is kind of tough. Not even sure about the first three (though I bet all of them will be somewhere in the top 5.)

[Jake]

I don't know where this puts me, but mine will be ~60% McCain, more if the Hillary voters stay home/switch. On a forum full of folks who either live in coastal suburbs or cities, that has to be up there.

[Torie]

My precinct is about 3-2 GOP. I don't think I am in the running. It won't go as high as 2-1 McCain, but might get up to 65% McCain maybe max. As a sidebar, I once lived in a precinct that will go 10-1 for Obama, maybe close to 20-1.

Spade lives in a precinct that I would be shocked if it went 85% Dem. It might be 2-1 for Obama as a wild guess, but obviously he knows better than I do.

[Boris]

Don't The Mikado and MikeyCNY live in DC?

[Sam Spade]

hmmm...

My precinct will be Obama and high, but probably under the district-wide numbers.  That is, unless Obama really bombs among the Hispanics.  Probably less than yours, actually BRTD.

[J. J.]

I think it will be mine.  I would expect it to be more than 95% Obama.  Turnout will be  the question.  I've actually seen more Obama signs up since the primary than before it.

[Torie]

hmmm...

My precinct will be Obama and high, but probably under the district-wide numbers.  That is, unless Obama really bombs among the Hispanics.  Probably less than yours, actually BRTD.

Come on Sam, gives us a percentage, or a range. I know you can! 

[Sam Spade]

hmmm...

My precinct will be Obama and high, but probably under the district-wide numbers.  That is, unless Obama really bombs among the Hispanics.  Probably less than yours, actually BRTD.

Come on Sam, gives us a percentage, or a range. I know you can! 

Probably 75%. 

The neighborhood is historically one of the few bastions of WASPs in NYC and probably voted Republican 30 years ago.  Over the past 5-10 years though, it's become more infiltrated with upper-income atheist Jews and yuppies.  And of course, the WASP movement towards the Dems has been very strong over the last 30 years.  It is a very rich precinct, of course.

I know a decent number of Republicans in the neighborhood and there is a sizable old population - those who have rent-stabilized apartments back from the days when the area was less rich and desirable.  Of course, the number of Obama buttons among street travelers here is strong (less so with signs in the apartments, however - Hillary does pretty well here in the sign department), which makes me wonder how many of the street travelers vote here. 

Henceforth, my guess...

[Torie]

Interesting. Do you know how your precinct voted in 2004?

[War on Want]

I think that I will come in second(yes!!!!) and not first in the most lopsided for McCain area. I actually think Obama will get at least 30% in my precinct and Barr will probably score 2 or 3%. I don't know how that exactly matches up compared to BushOklahoma but I could be beaten.

[Torie]

I think that I will come in second(yes!!!!) and not first in the most lopsided for McCain area. I actually think Obama will get at least 30% in my precinct and Barr will probably score 2 or 3%. I don't know how that exactly matches up compared to BushOklahoma but I could be beaten.

Where do you live if I may ask? I notice per punching your name, that you live in Mass. Who knew!

[Хahar 🤔]

I think that I will come in second(yes!!!!) and not first in the most lopsided for McCain area. I actually think Obama will get at least 30% in my precinct and Barr will probably score 2 or 3%. I don't know how that exactly matches up compared to BushOklahoma but I could be beaten.

Where do you live if I may ask? I notice per punching your name, that you live in Mass. Who knew!

He's actually Idahoan. Avatars aren't always a ready indicator.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

For Obama:

1-J. J.
2-me
3-Sam Spade
4-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty
5-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty

My initial reaction is that my precinct will almost certainly go bigger for Obama than WalterMitty's.  Totally different demographics—I live in a Prius-driving, yuppie-filled, lesbian-clogged, student-thick area of Somerville.  Mitty lives in a working-class area.

By comparison: Kerry got 80.1% in Somerville, his 9th best town in the Commonwealth.  (And I live in one of the most liberal parts of Somerville.)  Kerry "only" got to 68.4% in Medford.

McCain may get to 20% in my precinct.

[Sam Spade]

Interesting. Do you know how your precinct voted in 2004?

Amazingly enough, I didn't actually look it up before I posted.  Which, of course, led me to say 75%, when it should be around 85%.   

Still won't be as bad as JJ's and I doubt it eclipses BRTDs.

(removes foot from mouth)

[jesmo]

Living in a precinct that is in a suburb of St Louis that is 50% black, 45% white, and most of those whites are latte liberals, I may be in the most Obama precinct .

[WalterMitty]

For Obama:

1-J. J.
2-me
3-Sam Spade
4-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty
5-either Mr. Moderate or WalterMitty

My initial reaction is that my precinct will almost certainly go bigger for Obama than WalterMitty's.  Totally different demographics—I live in a Prius-driving, yuppie-filled, lesbian-clogged, student-thick area of Somerville.  Mitty lives in a working-class area.

By comparison: Kerry got 80.1% in Somerville, his 9th best town in the Commonwealth.  (And I live in one of the most liberal parts of Somerville.)  Kerry "only" got to 68.4% in Medford.

McCain may get to 20% in my precinct.

yes, obama should do much better overall in somerville than medford.  heck, clinton beat obama in medford in the primary.

also, my precinct is filled with italians, older italians in particular.  i dont think obama is going to landslide in my precinct.  maybe 60%.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Precinct?

I bet someone lives in one of those places where a precinct has like 100 people and 98 of them vote McCain or Obama.  As for mine, one of the more Democratic precincts, but the town is 50-50, so were talking maybe Obama 56 - McCain 44

[Verily]

For some reason, I can't find the 2004 breakdown by precinct online; it seems our county clerk takes down the results of old elections. However, the city as a whole was 74% for Kerry, and my precinct is considerably more Democratic than that, so I would expect it was around 85% for Kerry. So I'm definitely in contention.

Example: In 2007, we voted over 90% for our (Democratic) State Senator. The County Clerk still has the 2007 results up. Of course, she won election/reelection in a landslide (had been appointed).

[memphis]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

Wow in Memphis? What the fuck?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

And with the issue of mine vs. Sam Spade's settled, here comes the other interesting question of whose House district will be more pro-Obama. And State House and State Senate district (although from the sound of things I have those won for sure, at least State House)

[Torie]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

Wow in Memphis? What the fuck?

Memphis is very racially polarized, perhaps the most of any metro area in the nation of a substantial size.

[Alcon]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

Wow in Memphis? What the fuck?

There are some precincts that approached 4-to-1 Bush in Memphis...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

Wow in Memphis? What the fuck?

There are some precincts that approached 4-to-1 Bush in Memphis...

Wow, glad I live in an enlightened place with no Republican areas.

[Torie]

My preciinct should go for McCain by about 2-1.

Wow in Memphis? What the fuck?

There are some precincts that approached 4-to-1 Bush in Memphis...

Wow, glad I live in an enlightened place with no Republican areas.

Ya, Pubbies living near you would degrade your happiness. It would be like SS Storm Troopers living next door, to take you away to the gas chambers. We can't have that!  We want to monitor and constrict your private life, snoop on it, and strip you of your social safety net. We want to make you an economic serf. We are scum!