SurveyUSA: OH: Obama leads McCain by 9%

[Alcon]

Summary: D: 48%, R: 39%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[agcatter]

Wow!  McCain up 10% among Indies according to internals and loses the state by 9.  Could it have anything to do with the fact that their sample was 52% D, 28% R?   He damned well better be ahead by 9.

52% of registered voters in Ohio are Democrats?  In Ohio?  Sounds like the party breakdown in Massachusetts.  Ohio?

I give up.

[TheresNoMoney]

The partisan breakdown makes no sense.

[ChrisFromNJ]

What is up with these party breakdowns?

[Alcon]

With their partisan breakdown, it's Obama +10

With 2006 partisan breakdown, it's McCain +3

With 2004 partisan breakdown, McCain +8

Caveat emptor: SUSA always identifies fewer indies than the exit poll, because they ask "toward which party do you lean" (I think) and that obviously favors McCain here.  I'd say this poll, adjusted to 2006 numbers, shows McCain +2 or so.  With a realistic 2008 breakdown, it's probably reasonably close to a push, definitely well within MoE.

[agcatter]

Ok, I'm officially through looking at anymore "polls" until after the conventions.

[Rococo4]

Trash

[agcatter]

I was thinking a slight lean to McCain in Ohio, but if Dems are 52% and Republicans are 28% it's all over.  I'd like to hear some feedback from both Republican and Democratic Ohio posters on these numbers.

[Tender Branson]

Freaky.

[Josh/Devilman88]

SUSA doesn't weight their polls by what party the person is it, they weight it by other things. fivethirtyeight.com has something out talking about it, because people were like WTF? 28% republican?

[agcatter]

Problem is that if you weight it with other things and you still pulled a 52-28 party split you have to believe you've got an unrepresentative sample that is off some way.

UNLESS

we suddenly have an earthquake party realignment over the past several months and Ohio has suddenly turned into Massachusetts or California.

I doubt it.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Well I know in NC Republican only make up of 35% of the RVs and dems make up of 42%

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Well I know in NC Republican only make up of 35% of the RVs and dems make up of 42%

Well, 35% to 42% makes sense for NC. A lot of those are blue dog Dems that never changed their party registration. There's a big difference between that and 52% to 28%.

[Alcon]

It's worth considering that a lot of people change reported party affiliations as they change candidates.  This is most strongly shown in SUSA, which asks the "party identification" question instead of "party registration" question.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Plus I think alot of the liberal Repulbican might have swtich to the Democratic party or indy do to Bush.

[minionofmidas]

It's worth considering that a lot of people change reported party affiliations as they change candidates.  This is most strongly shown in SUSA, which asks the "party identification" question instead of "party registration" question.

Well yeah. Still... McCain winning indies? Is it not pc to identify as a Republican in Ohio anymore?
Not that there's any reason why it should be.

[Sam Spade]

Considering present levels of voter enthusiasm, this result isn't really surprising, actually.

[minionofmidas]

Considering present levels of voter enthusiasm, this result isn't really surprising, actually.

The end result isn't... very encouraging, but not totally shocking. But that partisan breakdown is... (shakes head)

[Alcon]

Someone read our mind

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/party-identification-in-ohio.html

[Ronnie]

*throws up in mouth*

Wow, this poll freaks me out.  If McCain can't get Ohio, he better kiss this election freakin' goodbye.

[Aizen]

Yeah, if McCain loses Ohio then he's finished. Game over. However, this poll shouldn't worry Republicans. The state ever so slightly still leans McCain (probably) but it's still a decisive swing state.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks Alcon!

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Ahha! No earthly reason whatsoever to discard this poll.

[© tweed]

the latest SUSA batch seems like trash

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Thanks Alcon!

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Ahha! No earthly reason whatsoever to discard this poll.

So this poll essentially states that Republican turnout will be lower in a contested general election than in an uncontested Republican Primary?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's worth considering that a lot of people change reported party affiliations as they change candidates.  This is most strongly shown in SUSA, which asks the "party identification" question instead of "party registration" question.

Well yeah. Still... McCain winning indies? Is it not pc to identify as a Republican in Ohio anymore?

Being reluctant to identify as a Republican in Ohio now doesn't surprise me at all, considering 2006 and everyone's favorite ex-Governor Bob Taft.