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Author Topic: Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted  (Read 17635 times)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« on: May 23, 2008, 04:09:06 pm »
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Here's a list of what the current accumulated predictions are, with those states that would require a change in less than 5% (40) of the current 804 predictions to alter the cumulative wisdom.  Of the 9 states that can have their prediction most easily changed, 4 changes are pro-D and 5 are pro-R.  Only 2 of those changes would affect the line graphs, those of FL and MI, and both are pro-D.  No easy changes would affect the EV totals.

I intend to make updates at regular intervals.  How easy I deem a change to be is here based solely on how many predictions would need to revised to cause a change.  No inference is being made or should be assumed as to how probable a change is.  This list is being offered solely so that interested persons have an idea as to which states need watching for possible changes.

AL: R 60% Strong
AK: R 60% Strong
AR: R 50%  Lean
AZ: R 50% Strong
CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D  Lean)
CO: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  50%)
CT: D 50% Strong
DC: D 80% Strong
DE: D 50%  Lean
FL: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  Lean)
GA: R 50% Strong
HI: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Strong)
IA: D 40% Tossup
ID: R 60% Strong
IL: D 50% Strong
IN: R 50% Strong
KS: R 60% Strong
KY: R 50% Strong
LA: R 50% Strong
MA: D 60% Strong
MD: D 50% Strong
ME: D 50%  Lean
MO: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R  40%)
MI: D 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to D Tossup)
MS: R 50% Strong
MN: D 50%  Lean
MT: R 50% Strong
NC: R 50% Strong
ND: R 60% Strong
NE: R 60% Strong
NH: D 50% Tossup
NJ: D 50%  Lean
NM: D 40% Tossup
NV: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  30%)
NY: D 50% Strong
OK: R 60% Strong
OH: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  40%)
OR: D 50%  Lean
PA: D 50% Tossup
RI: D 50% Strong
SC: R 50% Strong
SD: R 50% Strong
TN: R 50% Strong
TX: R 60% Strong
UT: R 70% Strong
VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)
VT: D 50% Strong
WA: D 50%  Lean
WI: D 40% Tossup
WV: R 50%  Lean
WY: R 60% Strong
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2008, 01:16:27 pm »
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We have 3 new predictions since yesterday, plus some changes.  With a total of 807 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.

Here are the easy changes.  I'm tempted to think I missed WV yesterday, because otherwise, it has shifted more than any other State since yesterday.  None of these changes were made more difficult, and overall, the net effect was favorable to the Republicans.

CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [unchanged]
CO: D 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  Lean[-2 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R  40%)   [unchanged]
MI: D 50%  Lean   (7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-5 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  40%)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (33 changes can shift to R Strong) [new]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2008, 05:58:05 pm »
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We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes.  With a total of 808 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.

Here are the easy changes.  The margin changed on 7 of these today, all in favor of the Republicans

CA: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [unchanged]
CO: D 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+2 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  Lean[-4 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
MI: D 50%  Lean   (7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (31 changes can shift to R Strong) [-2 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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Posts: 28440
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2008, 02:58:33 pm »
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We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes.  With a total of 809 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.

Here are the easy changes.  For the most part, the revisions in predictions favored the Democrats, including the addition of a new easy change: Pennsylvania from D Tossup to D Lean.  Like the ones for Florida and Michigan, if made, this change will affect the line graph of the Aggregate Prediction History that gets automatically computed.

CA: D 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
CO: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1 change needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [unchanged]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 5 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+1 change needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[new]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (31 changes can shift to R Strong) [unchanged]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2008, 05:34:09 pm »
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We have 10 new prediction since Monday (three days ago), plus some changes.  With a total of 819 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change is still 40.

Here are the easy changes.  The revisions in predictions slightly favored the Republicans.

CA: D 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-5 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [unchanged]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [unchanged]
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 change needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (26 changes can shift to R Strong) [-5 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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*****
Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2008, 04:01:46 pm »
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We have 6 new predictions since yesterday, plus some changes.  With a total of 825 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change increases by 1 to 41.

Here are the easy changes.  Note that by my hand tally, Michigan should already be in D Tossup, but if the 5 predictions of an independent victory aren't considered in deciding what goes on the map, then 2 or 3 more changes are needed.

CA: D 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
CO: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-2 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  Lean[-5 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 8 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
MI: D 50%  Lean  (-1 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  30%)   [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  40%)   [unchanged]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (24 changes can shift to R Strong) [-2 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #6 on: May 31, 2008, 07:07:24 pm »
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We have 1 new prediction since yesterday, plus some changes.  With a total of 826 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent is 41.

I'm rebalancing the numbers needed for a change to ignore independent predictions, which will make calculations slightly more complex, but match the automatic results better.

Here are the easy changes.  Because of the rebalancing, comparisons to last time are not given, save in California, which has no predictions of an Independent victory.

CA: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D  Lean[+3 changes needed]
CO: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  50%)
FL: R 50% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R  Lean)
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong)
MO: R 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to R  40%)
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 1 change  can shift to D Tossup)
NV: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  30%)
PA: D 50% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  Lean)
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  40%)
VA: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)
WV: R 50%  Lean  (23 changes can shift to R Strong)
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
auburntiger
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Posts: 1267
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Political Matrix
E: 2.61, S: 0.65

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« Reply #7 on: June 01, 2008, 10:21:31 pm »
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I noticed MI just went from lean-D to tossup, and CO went to D>50%. I'm curious as how you delegate each state (R>40, or D>50) based on predictions. Is it a certain number? Could you elaborate on that? 
Logged

Moderate Republican turned Independent.
True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2008, 02:15:38 pm »
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We have 2 new predictions since Saturday (two days ago).  With a total of 828 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.

Here are the easy changes.  Colorado has changed from D 40% to D 50% and Michigan from D Lean to D Tossup since the last time I did this summary, so now I get to start listing how many changes going the other direction are needed to flip them back.

CA: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+6 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean[-1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 7 changes can shift to D Strong) [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean[+6 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D  Lean[+4 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (17 changes can shift to R Strong) [-6 changes needed]



To answer auburntiger's question:
I can't swear this is how Dave is doing it, but it's the system I'm using, and it seems to match the automatically generated results.

1. Total the number of predictions for R, D, and I for each state.  The one with the most predictions gets the state, with a tie going to what won prior to the new or changed prediction.
2. Now to determine where the predicted margin of victory is, total the number of prediction for the first and second place finishers in each state and divide by half to get the target number for that state.
3. If the number of Strong predictions for that party is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Strong.  If the overall prediction is not Strong then if the number of Strong ad Lean predictions is greater than the target number, the overall prediction is Lean, otherwise it is Tossup.
4.  For the percentage, it is the highest percentage for which the number of predictions for that party at that percentage or higher is greater than the target number.
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #9 on: June 03, 2008, 03:55:10 pm »
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We have 2 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 830 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.

Here are the easy changes.  Slight improvement for the Democrats, but hardly more than noise.


CA: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [unchanged]
CO: D 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  Lean[+2 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  40%)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (17 changes can shift to R Strong) [unchanged]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #10 on: June 04, 2008, 03:36:03 pm »
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We have 4 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 834 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 41.

Here are the easy changes.  Slight improvement for the Republicans.  Nevada is getting close enough I may start adding how many changes it would take for the shifts to R 30% and R 40% to the list.  Predictions at the 30% level are thin, and deservedly so, as they require a a strong third party effort to get at least 20% to achieve.  However that means those levels can be quickly swept through if a State flips from one party to another and that listing those numbers doesn't add much info.

CA: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [unchanged]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 2 changes can shift to D Strong) [-4 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-7 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [unchanged]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  40%)   [unchanged]
WV: R 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to R Strong) [-3 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #11 on: June 07, 2008, 02:27:19 pm »
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We have 9 new predictions since Wednesday (3 days ago).  With a total of 843 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent has increased by 1 to 42.

I've decided to indicate the changes that affect the line graph with yellow highlighting instead of bold text, as with the constant width font I'm using, bold type isn't that different from roman type.

Here are the easy changes.  Hawaii has switched since the last summary from D Lean to D Strong.  Pennsylvania going from D Tossup to D Lean is no longer within the range of an easy change as it will take 43 changes to make that happen now.  Overall, the revisions were about equal, but in terms of those with the potential to change the line graph, the Republicans clearly had the benefit.  With PA no longer on the list I decided to bite the bullet and add the two lines for Nevada.

CA: D 50% Strong (31 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+6 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R  Lean[-7 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 2 changes can shift to D  Lean[+3 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R  40%[-11 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D  Lean[+5 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R  30%)   [new substat]
NV: D 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  40%)   [new substat]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  ( 8 changes can shift to R Strong) [-6 changes needed]

Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
auburntiger
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Posts: 1267
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.61, S: 0.65

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« Reply #12 on: June 08, 2008, 02:01:39 pm »
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Yay for Florida becoming R-Lean!
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Moderate Republican turned Independent.
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Ernest
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« Reply #13 on: June 08, 2008, 07:56:18 pm »
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We have 4 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 847 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes.  Florida flipped from R Tossup to R Lean, but a change in only prediction would be enough to make it flip back.  After a 1 day absence, the change from in Pennsylvania from D Tossup to D Lean is back on the list.

Overall the past day has been good for the Republicans, but I've noted that Sunday usually is good for them.

CA: D 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D  40%)     [unchanged]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 1 change  can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 5 changes can shift to D  Lean[+3 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R  30%)    [unchanged]       
NV: D 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50%  Lean  ( 1 change  can shift to R Strong) [-7 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2008, 06:52:17 pm »
Ignore

We have 1 new prediction since yesterday.  With a total of 848 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes.  West Virginia has shifted from R Lean to R Strong.  The pattern of the changes leads me to believe that most activity is by people who had been predicting Clinton would be the nominee and are updating their maps to reflect Obama as the nominee.


CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+8 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  Lean[-5 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-9 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-9 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-9 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 4 changes can shift to R  Lean[+4 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
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Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #15 on: June 10, 2008, 09:38:33 pm »
Ignore

We have 3 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 851 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy changes.  Ohio flipped from D 50% to D 40%.  Michigan saw a flurry of changes for some reason.


CA: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
CO: D 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (10 change  can shift to R Tossup) [+1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MI: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  Lean) [+13 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (22 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 6 changes can shift to R  Lean[+2 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
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Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #16 on: June 11, 2008, 10:54:40 pm »
Ignore

We have 8 new predictions since yesterday.  With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy shifts.  Michigan and Pennsylvania saw the most change in the collective wisdon today, but in opposite directions.


CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (13 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 8 changes can shift to D  Lean[+2 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  Lean) [+10 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean[-6 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean[+2 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
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Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #17 on: June 12, 2008, 10:58:15 pm »
Ignore

No new predictors since yesterday, just people changing their existing predictions.  With a total of 859 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains at 42.

Here are the easy shifts.  Slight trend to the Democrats, but not much activity of any sort today.

CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 9 changes can shift to R  Lean[+1 change needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
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*****
Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #18 on: June 13, 2008, 07:10:45 pm »
Ignore

2 new predictors since yesterday, With a total of 861 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  I'll leave analysis to Tim Russert today.

CA: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
CO: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+2 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D  Lean[+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean[+4 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-4 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-4 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean[+3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R  Lean[+1 change needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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Posts: 10149
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

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« Reply #19 on: June 13, 2008, 10:27:02 pm »
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I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.
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Ernest
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« Reply #20 on: June 14, 2008, 01:52:41 pm »
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I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.

At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean.  I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time.  The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is:

DE: D 50%  Lean  (55 changes to D Strong)
IA: D 40% Tossup (62 changes to D  50%)
NC: R 50% Strong (59 changes to R  Lean)
OH: D 40% Tossup (82 changes to D  30%)
TX: R 60% Strong (66 changes to R  50%)
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
Josh/Devilman88
josh4bush
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Posts: 10149
Political Matrix
E: 3.61, S: -1.74

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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2008, 03:45:54 pm »
Ignore

I have a question. How many changes would it take until NC moves to lean McCain.

At the moment, it would take 59 changed predictions to shift NC from R Strong to R Lean.  I keep an eye out for States like NC that have a 5 to10% margin to see if they need adding to the list, but I don't bother keeping track of the exact margin each day due to time.  The full list of those waiting in the wings right now is:

DE: D 50%  Lean  (55 changes to D Strong)
IA: D 40% Tossup (62 changes to D  50%)
NC: R 50% Strong (59 changes to R  Lean)
OH: D 40% Tossup (82 changes to D  30%)
TX: R 60% Strong (66 changes to R  50%)


Thanks, nice work.
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auburntiger
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« Reply #22 on: June 15, 2008, 10:06:59 am »
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Wow! Nevada is getting VERY close to flipping!
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Moderate Republican turned Independent.
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Ernest
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« Reply #23 on: June 15, 2008, 06:45:25 pm »
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3 new predictors since Friday (2 days ago). With a total of 864 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  Slight advantage to the Dems, but other than Flordia, nothing that can be categorized as more than statistical noise.

CA: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-5 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D  Lean[-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  Lean[-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean[-2 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 28440
United States


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« Reply #24 on: June 17, 2008, 03:41:31 pm »
Ignore

6 new predictors since Sunday (2 days ago). With a total of 870 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  After remaining unchanged the last four times I checked, Ohio finally had a change, and in doing so flipped from D 40% to D 50%.  The latest Virginia poll apparently has caused people to be changing their Virginia predictions to be more favorable to Obama. (I was among them, but my change was not to the percentage but rather in my level of confidence from R Lean to R Tossup.)  Indeed, overall, the changes to predictions were favorable to Obama, tho perversely, in changes that would affect the bar graph, McCain has a small advantage.

CA: D 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to D  Lean[+6 changes needed]
CO: D 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (13 changes can shift to D  Lean[+4 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  Lean[-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  40%[-10 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean[+4 changes needed]
Logged

My November ballot:
Ervin(I) Gov.
Sellers(D) Lt. Gov.
Hammond(R) Sec. of State
Diggs(D) Att. Gen.
Herbert(D) Comptroller Gen.
Spearman(R) Supt. of Education
DeFelice(American) Commissioner of Agriculture
Hutto(D) US Sen (full)
Scott(R) US Sen (special)
Geddings(Labor) US House SC-2
Quinn(R) SC House District 69
Yes: Amendment 1 (Gen. Assembly may allow and regulate charity raffles)
No: Amendment 2 (end election of the Adjutant General)
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