Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 872 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  California's shift from D Strong to D Lean now takes 46 changes to make it happen, so it will depart this list for now.  Definite change in favor of Obama today save for Nevada.

CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-9 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-5 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-4 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 875 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  Florida has shifted in a big way from R Lean to R Tossup.  Save for Colorado, all of the tracked shifts are towards Obama, with the three States in Quinnipiac poll all showing hefty prediction changes.

CO: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  Lean) [+16 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (15 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+7 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-8 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong ( 8 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-4 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 878 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  Looks like just random noise today.

CO: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (17 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
WV: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1 new predictors since Friday. With a total of 879 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 43.

Here are the easy shifts.  Not much activity, but not any reason for any either.  North Carolina has been creeping towards joining the list and would require only 45 changes at the moment to change to R Lean.

CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 change needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (18 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
OH: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-2 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (11 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

3 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 882 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 44.

Here are the easy shifts.  There is a new shift added to the list today, but it isn't the one I was expecting. Delaware changing from D Lean to D Strong has joined the list.

CO: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  40%)    [unchanged]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (44 changes can shift to D Strong)  [new]
FL: R 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
HI: D 50%  Lean  (18 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MI: D 50% Tossup (41 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1 change needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]

[ottermax]

Can you change Hawaii so that it says it is strong. I think that's what is intended, but it hasn't been changed. Just bugs me. Thanks!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

6 new predictors since yesterday. With a total of 888 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.

Here are the easy shifts.  North Carolina just barely edged on to the list today and Delaware edged back off it after being on for one day.

CO: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (20 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-2 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (44 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  30%)    [unchanged]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
OH: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
WV: R 50% Strong (13 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]

Since we're at the top of a new page, I'm also listing the not as easy changes that require a 5 to 10% shift.

CA: D 50% Strong (50 changes can shift to D  Lean)
DE: D 50%  Lean  (45 changes can shift to D Strong)
IA: D 40% Tossup (52 changes can shift to D  50%)
MO: R 50% Tossup (75 changes can shift to R  30%)
MO: R 50% Tossup (77 changes can shift to D  30%)
MO: R 50% Tossup (79 changes can shift to D  40%)
TX: R 60% Strong (60 changes can shift to R  50%)
WI: D 40% Tossup (79 changes can shift to D  50%)
VA: R 50% Tossup (70 changes can shift to R  30%)
VA: R 50% Tossup (74 changes can shift to D  30%)
VA: R 50% Tossup (75 changes can shift to D  40%)

Key:
Red text indicates a change in favor of the Democrats
Blue text indicates a change in favor of the Republicans
Gray text indicates a change that requires a different change to happen first before it can happen.
Yellow background indicates a change that would affect Dave's line graph.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

5 new predictors since two days ago (Tuesday). With a total of 893 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.

Here are the easy shifts.  Delaware is back on the list again.  Nevada flipped to Republican, but only Dave's rule of ties being broken by the previous result is keeping it from being shown as the tie it truly is at the moment (Last flip on Nevada was Josh22's prediction from R Nevada to D Nevada, thus making that state a tie.)

CO: D 50% Tossup (43 changes can shift to D  40%)  [+10 changes needed]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (42 changes can shift to D Strong)  [3 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (17 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-6 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (39 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-5 changes needed]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  30%)   [+4 changes needed]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to R  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (18 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+5 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

3 new predictors since three days ago (Thursday). With a total of 896 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 44.

Here are the easy shifts.  Overall the last three days have been favorable to Obama prediction-wise, tho McCain has improved n Missouri.


CO: D 50% Tossup (43 changes can shift to D  40%)    [unchanged]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (40 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+3 changes needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (21 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-9 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (36 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to R  30%)   [+1 change needed]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  40%)    [unchanged]
PA: D 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-4 changes needed]
VA: R 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (19 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

4 new predictors since three days ago (Sunday). With a total of 900 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Changes to them have been strongly pro-McCain.

CO: D 50% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (39 changes can shift to D Strong) [-1 change needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-6 changes needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (20 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-4 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (30 changes can shift to R  40%)  [+11 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 8 change  can shift to R  30%)  [+10 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  30%)  [+10 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  40%)  [+10 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (21 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
VA: R 50% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-4 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+7 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 new predictors since three days ago (Wednesday). With a total of 902 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Very mild movement in favor Obama overall.  Colorado now needs 46 changes to shift to D 40% and is no longer an easy change.  Iowa needs 47 changes to shift to D 50% and if current trends continue will join the list soon.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (36 changes can shift to D Strong) [-3 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (21 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+2 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+2 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-2 changes needed]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to R  50%)   [+3 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 new predictors since two days ago (Saturday). With a total of 904 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Iowa has joined the list of easy changes.  The change of Virginia in the other direction (to R 30%) now needs 49 changes and may join the list.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (31 changes can shift to D Strong) [-5 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-2 changes needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+3 changes needed]
IA: D 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-6 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-2 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+4 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+3 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (17 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-5 changes needed]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+4 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 new predictors since three days ago (Monday). With a total of 906 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Given the lack of polling results, its understandable that nothing has seen a strong shift in opinions as to who will win where.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (31 changes can shift to D Strong)  [unchanged]
FL: R 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]
HI: D 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
IA: D 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1 change needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (33 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]
NV: R 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1 change needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4 changes needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-2 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R  Lean)   [unchanged]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

3 new predictors since two days ago (Thursday). With a total of 909 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Nothing particularly noteworthy, though a very slight shift in predictions overall to favor Obama

DE: D 50%  Lean  (28 changes can shift to D Strong) [-3 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1 change needed]
IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3 changes needed]
MI: D 50% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  Lean)   [unchanged]
MO: R 50% Tossup (39 changes can shift to R  40%)    [unchanged]
NC: R 50% Strong (28 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-5 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-3 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1 change needed]
PA: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1 change needed]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+3 changes needed]
WV: R 50% Strong (26 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

6 new predictors since four days ago (Saturday). With a total of 915 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Save for Nevada, predictions mainly shifted towards Obama. Pennsylvania barely shifted over to D Lean and it would take only 1 change to shift it back.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (26 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2 changes needed]
FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
HI: D 50% Strong (29 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2 changes needed]
IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  50%)    [unchanged]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 7 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-8 changes needed]
MO: R 50% Tossup (38 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1 changes needed]
NC: R 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-3 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+4 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+4 changes needed]
NV: R 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5 changes needed]
OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1 change needed]
PA: D 50%  Lean  ( 1 change  can shift to D Tossup) [+5 changes needed]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  50%)    [unchanged]
WV: R 50% Strong (25 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1 change needed]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

2 new predictors since two days ago (Wednesday). With a total of 917 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 45.

Here are the easy shifts.  Obama gained slightly in a mixed result.  With no polling news, I have no idea why Missouri had the largest amount of change in the changes I'm tracking closely.  Texas is getting close to having an easy shift on the list with only 49 changes now needed to shift from R 60% to R 50%.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (27 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1]
FL: R 50% Tossup (14 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [±0]
HI: D 50% Strong (30 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1]
IA: D 40% Tossup (42 changes can shift to D  50%)   [±0]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-3]
MO: R 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-9]
NC: R 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 9 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-5]
NV: R 40% Tossup (10 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-5]
NV: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-6]
OH: D 50% Tossup (33 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1]
PA: D 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+2]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-2]
WV: R 50% Strong (27 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

12 new predictors since three days ago (Friday). With a total of 929 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 46.

Here are the easy shifts. Michigan made a one day shift to D Lean yesterday, and it would only take 1 change to restore it to D Lean. Texas is closer to making the list as it now needs 47 changes for its shift.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (25 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2]
FL: R 50% Tossup (10 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-4]
HI: D 50% Strong (35 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+5]
IA: D 40% Tossup (39 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3]
MI: D 50% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  Lean)  [-3]
MO: R 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-1]
NC: R 50% Strong (18 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-9]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to R  30%)   [-8]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 3 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-7]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-6]
OH: D 50% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2]
PA: D 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [±0]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+4]
WV: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R  Lean) [+11]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

4 new predictors since three days ago (Monday). With a total of 933 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 46.

Here are the easy shifts.  Michigan has shifted from D Tossup to D Lean.  Nevada has shifted from R 40% to R 30% since last time.  Texas has joined the list of easy shifts.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (23 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2]
FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+9]
HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2]
IA: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-2]
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 8 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+8]
MO: R 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+1]
NC: R 50% Strong (12 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-6]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  30%)   [-1]
NV: R 30% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1]
OH: D 50% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+7]
TX: R 60% Strong (45 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-2]
VA: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+8]
WV: R 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [±0]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

7 new predictors since three days ago (Thursday). With a total of 940 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 47.

Here are the easy shifts.  Nevada has shifted from R 30% to D 40% since last time.  Besides the change from R 40% to R 50% for Virginia that has been on the list, it has been joined by a change in the other direction to R 30%.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (21 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2]
FL: R 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [±0]
HI: D 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+6]
IA: D 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3]
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 7 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-1]
MO: R 50% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+2]
NC: R 50% Strong ( 7 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-5]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to D  30%)   [+5]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+5]
NV: D 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+4]
OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-4]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (17 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+7]
TX: R 60% Strong (47 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+2]
VA: R 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+5]
VA: R 40% Tossup (43 changes can shift to R  30%)   [new]
WV: R 50% Strong (43 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+5]

[Josh/Devilman88]

GO NC!!!!!!!!!! Lean here we come!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

6 new predictors since two days ago (Sunday). With a total of 946 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 47.

Here are the easy shifts.  Nevada has shifted from D 40% back to D 30% since last time. Josh will have to wait longer for the shift in North Carolina, assuming it ever happens.

DE: D 50%  Lean  (23 changes can shift to D Strong) [+2]
FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1]
HI: D 50% Strong (39 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-4]
IA: D 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-2]
MI: D 50%  Lean  ( 3 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4]
MO: R 50% Tossup (34 changes can shift to R  40%)   [+3]
NC: R 50% Strong (10 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+3]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 2 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-2]
NV: D 30% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  40%)   [-2]
OH: D 50% Tossup (28 changes can shift to D  40%)   [±0]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (13 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-4]
TX: R 60% Strong (47 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+2]
VA: R 40% Tossup (23 changes can shift to R  50%)   [+2]
VA: R 40% Tossup (40 changes can shift to R  30%)   [-3]
VA: R 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D  30%)   [new]
VA: R 40% Tossup (46 changes can shift to D  40%)   [new]
WV: R 50% Strong (45 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+2]


Since we're at the top of a new page, I'm also listing the not as easy changes that require a 5 to 10% shift.

AK: R 60% Strong (80 changes can shift to R  50%)
CA: D 50% Strong (76 changes can shift to D  Lean)
CO: D 50% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D  40%)
IN: R 50% Strong (70 changes can shift to R  Lean)
MT: R 50% Strong (89 changes can shift to R  Lean)
WA: D 50%  Lean  (82 changes can shift to D Strong)
WI: D 40% Tossup (63 changes can shift to D  50%)
WI: D 40% Tossup (56 changes can shift to D  Lean)

Key:
Red text indicates a change in favor of the Democrats
Blue text indicates a change in favor of the Republicans
Gray text indicates a change that requires a different change to happen first before it can happen.
Yellow background indicates a change that would affect Dave's line graph.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Darn you people!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

24 new predictors since nine days ago (Tuesday a week ago). With a total of 970 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 48.

Here are the easy shifts.  During my nine day hiatus, Michigan has gone from D Lean to D Tossup and Nevada from D 30% to R 40%.  Texas now needs 50 shifts and West Virgina 53 for their most likely shifts and thus has fallen off the list of easy shifts.  Conversely Colorado and Wisconsin have joined the list.  With only 52 changes needed, Wisconsin's percentages could join Wisconsin's confidence on the list very readily if trends continue.

CO: D 50% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  40%)  [-11]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (14 changes can shift to D Strong) [-9]
FL: R 50% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+1]
HI: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1]
IA: D 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-3]
MI: D 50% Tossup (11 changes can shift to D  Lean) [+13]
MO: R 50% Tossup (45 changes can shift to R  40%)  [+11]
NC: R 50% Strong (13 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [+3]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+5]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+6]
NV: R 40% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+6]
OH: D 50% Tossup (19 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-9]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (21 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+8]
VA: R 40% Tossup (20 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-3]
VA: R 40% Tossup (41 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+1]
VA: R 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+1]
VA: R 40% Tossup (47 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+1]
WI: D 40% Tossup (47 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-9]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

16 new predictors since four days ago (Thursday). With a total of 986 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 49.

Here are the easy shifts.  The past four days have generally been favorable to McCain prediction-wise. Missouri has left the list as it now needs 50 shifts to change to R 40%.  Texas remains in the wings, needing 54 shifts.  Virgina's pro-Obama shifts have fallen off the list thanks to 10 changes that make the needed shifts 51, 55, and 57 for R 30%, D 30%, and D 40% respectively, while the pro-McCain shift to R 50% remains on the list.  A percentage shift for Wisconsin has joined the confidence shift for that State, and had a bigger net change, enough to make it the likelier of the two shifts for now.

CO: D 50% Tossup (40 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+3]
DE: D 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to D Strong) [-8]
FL: R 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to R  Lean) [-15]
HI: D 50% Strong (42 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+4]
IA: D 40% Tossup (30 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1]
MI: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+7]
NC: R 50% Strong (31 changes can shift to R  Lean) [+18]
NV: R 40% Tossup (15 changes can shift to R  30%)  [+10]
NV: R 40% Tossup (16 changes can shift to D  30%)  [+10]
NV: R 40% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  40%)  [+10]
OH: D 50% Tossup (13 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-6]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (15 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-6]
VA: R 40% Tossup (12 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-8]
WI: D 40% Tossup (45 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-2]
WI: D 40% Tossup (44 changes can shift to D  50%)   [-8]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

8 new predictors since two days ago (Tuesday). With a total of 998 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 49.  Since Tuesday, Florida has shifted from R Tossup to R Lean, affecting the line graph.

Here are the easy shifts.  The past two days have been almost totally favorable to McCain prediction-wise. The sole exception is North Carolina, which had a huge McCain bounce in my last summary.

CO: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D  40%)  [-13]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [+4]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 2 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+6]
HI: D 50% Strong (38 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-4]
IA: D 40% Tossup (35 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+5]
MI: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+4]
NC: R 50% Strong (24 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-7]
NV: R 40% Tossup (21 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+6]
NV: R 40% Tossup (23 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+7]
NV: R 40% Tossup (25 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+7]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-5]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-3]
WI: D 40% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+3]
WI: D 40% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+4]