Prediction Summary - with states most easily changed noted

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

5 new predictors since yesterday (Wednesday). With a total of 1003 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent increases by 1 to 50.

Here are the easy shifts.

CO: D 50% Tossup (24 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (11 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 7 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+5]
HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1]
IA: D 40% Tossup (36 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1]
MI: D 50% Tossup (26 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+4]
NC: R 50% Strong (23 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1]
NV: R 40% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+5]
NV: R 40% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+4]
NV: R 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+4]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-2]
PA: D 50%  Lean  ( 9 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-3]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 6 changes can shift to R  50%)   [*]
WI: D 40% Tossup (48 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [±0]
WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1]
[*] Accidentally deleted from last report; -6 changes since three days ago.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

1 fewer predictors since yesterday (Thursday). (Did Dave prune a duplicate or two?) With a total of 1002 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 50.

Here are the easy shifts.  Changes are mildly pro-McCain overall, but not nearly as much as has been the case of late, suggesting that sentiment is reaching a new equilibrium.

CO: D 50% Tossup (22 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-2]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to D Strong) [+1]
FL: R 50%  Lean  ( 6 changes can shift to R Tossup) [-1]
HI: D 50% Strong (37 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [±0]
IA: D 40% Tossup (37 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1]
MI: D 50% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1]
NC: R 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [-1]
NV: R 40% Tossup (26 changes can shift to R  30%)   [±0]
NV: R 40% Tossup (27 changes can shift to D  30%)   [±0]
NV: R 40% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D  40%)   [±0]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 8 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+2]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (12 changes can shift to D Tossup) [+3]
VA: R 40% Tossup ( 4 changes can shift to R  50%)   [-2]
WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D  50%)   [±0]
WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+1]

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

7 new predictors since yesterday (Friday). With a total of 1009 predictions, the 5% threshold for an easy change if no one predicts an independent remains 50.

Here are the easy shifts.  Virginia has shifted from R 40% to R 50%, tho it would only take 1 change to shift it back.  Definite advantage to McCain in the last 24 hours of prediction changes.  Only state that I'm tracking that improved for Obama is Delaware.  Have rumors of Biden as Obama's running mate increased of late, or is this just a statistical blip in Delaware?

CO: D 50% Tossup (18 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-1]
DE: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Strong) [-2]
FL: R 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to R Tossup) [+4]
HI: D 50% Strong (36 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [-1]
IA: D 40% Tossup (38 changes can shift to D  50%)   [+1]
MI: D 50% Tossup (29 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [+2]
NC: R 50% Strong (22 changes can shift to R  Lean)  [±0]
NV: R 40% Tossup (31 changes can shift to R  30%)   [+5]
NV: R 40% Tossup (32 changes can shift to D  30%)   [+5]
NV: R 40% Tossup (34 changes can shift to D  40%)   [+5]
OH: D 50% Tossup ( 5 changes can shift to D  40%)   [-3]
PA: D 50%  Lean  (10 changes can shift to D Tossup) [-2]
VA: R 50% Tossup ( 1 change  can shift to R  40%)   [+4]
WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D  50%)   [±0]
WI: D 40% Tossup (49 changes can shift to D  Lean)  [±0]

[Хahar 🤔]

Most likely a blip. I can't imagine Biden would cause many people to move Delaware.

[Erc]

Ohio appears to have flipped to R +30.

[auburntiger]

Wow! Ohio just flipped! That came out of nowhere fast.
Now all we need is for Colorado to get with the program, like it usually does.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

It;s about time Ohio flipped. PA is now a tossup as well.

[minionofmidas]

Update?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Update?

No.  I got busy with other things and once I got unbusy, I decided not to bother with this any more.  If someone else wants to, they can.  It's not difficult, just time consuming.

[GMantis]

The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem.

[tokar]

The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem.

Another couple changes in the last couple of days you missed:
Michigan went from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic confidence.
Missouri went from Lean Republican confidence to Toss-up confidence.

Iowa is almost ready to flip from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic as well.  10 more flips (or 19 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push it to Lean Democratic confidence.
16 flips (or 31 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push PA to Lean Democratic confidence.

[GMantis]

The first change in well over a month - Colorado switched from >40% Dem to 50 >50% Dem.

Another couple changes in the last couple of days you missed:
Michigan went from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic confidence.
Missouri went from Lean Republican confidence to Toss-up confidence.

Iowa is almost ready to flip from Toss-up confidence to Lean Democratic as well.  10 more flips (or 19 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push it to Lean Democratic confidence.
16 flips (or 31 new user predictions) to Lean/Strong DEM will push PA to Lean Democratic confidence.

Those two were after my post. You also missed Florida going Toss-up. And Ohio is on the brink of changing - just 2 changes or new predictions will swing it to the Democrats. It has already just >30% Republican.

[GMantis]

And Ohio has finally switched.