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Author Topic: PR: Hillary! with narrow lead over Obama  (Read 8294 times)
Thomas Jackson
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« on: May 28, 2008, 08:58:28 am »
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http://www.vocero.com/portadas.asp?s=vocero

Clinton: 51%
Obama: 38%
Neither: 8%
Don't know: 3%

50% of the electorate says it will not participate in the primary.

34% of the electorate dislikes Clinton, 44% dislike Obama.
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« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2008, 09:05:40 am »
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+13 is not "narrow"
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« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2008, 09:12:14 am »
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When you're using the LA Times for your polling definitions, you're in trouble
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« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2008, 09:32:47 am »
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+13 is not "narrow"
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Franzl
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« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2008, 09:40:14 am »
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Quote
When you're using the LA Times for your polling definitions, you're in trouble.

Are you dare suggesting that the Slimes would dare lie about the marriage amendment?

No, he is suggesting that they suck at polling, and that any person that resorts to LA Times polls to back up their arguments isn't in a very good position.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2008, 11:23:43 am »
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+13 would definitely be narrow by the expectations game, as the general over-under from media sources seems more like a thirty-point margin (or, rather, that Clinton will win around two-thirds of the vote).

I wish we had more information on the breakdown of the poll. Anyone have a link? (Doesn't have to be in English.)
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: May 28, 2008, 11:29:40 am »
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This is an identical spread to the only other PR poll we have, from back in April:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=74023.0
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2008, 02:51:12 pm »
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You got my hopes up for a moment there, but then I saw the author.
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2008, 07:10:24 pm »
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Exactly how accurate are Puerto Rico polls or should caveat emptor be applied?
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2008, 07:53:56 pm »
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No idea, but some breakdowns I found:

If Puerto Rico could vote for President, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain 72-10.

37% said they were absolutely certain to vote, which means that will likely be the turnout (of all registered voters). 48% said they were at least somewhat likely to vote, and that was the group surveyed for their voting intention.
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Aizen
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2008, 10:36:02 pm »
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+13 is not "narrow"

According to the new media definition it is. The LA Slimes claimed that a +19 point lead for the marriage amendment in Kalifornia was "narrow". 54%-35%.

This most certainly qualifies under that definition. (Not to mention it's much better for Obama than the 60's that Hitlery was claiming she would get in PR.)


I'll bite. What's with the misspelling of "California"?
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Volatilesaff
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2008, 10:52:09 pm »
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+13 is not "narrow"

According to the new media definition it is. The LA Slimes claimed that a +19 point lead for the marriage amendment in Kalifornia was "narrow". 54%-35%.

This most certainly qualifies under that definition. (Not to mention it's much better for Obama than the 60's that Hitlery was claiming she would get in PR.)


I'll bite. What's with the misspelling of "California"?

I write it sometimes like that...only because its kinda how DA GOVERNATOR pronounces it Tongue
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Warren '16!
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« Reply #12 on: May 31, 2008, 11:57:59 pm »
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If Puerto Rico could vote for President, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain 72-10.

I wonder why no Republican asked so far how many EV Puerto Rico has ... Roll Eyes
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J. J.
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« Reply #13 on: June 01, 2008, 12:01:42 am »
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+13 is not "narrow"

According to the new media definition it is. The LA Slimes claimed that a +19 point lead for the marriage amendment in Kalifornia was "narrow". 54%-35%.

This most certainly qualifies under that definition. (Not to mention it's much better for Obama than the 60's that Hitlery was claiming she would get in PR.)

Didn't they also report that Saddam Hussein's was feeing a bit under the weather today?
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J. J.

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« Reply #14 on: June 01, 2008, 01:28:43 am »
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If Puerto Rico could vote for President, both Clinton and Obama lead McCain 72-10.

I wonder why no Republican asked so far how many EV Puerto Rico has ... Roll Eyes

So wait, how many... Oh, you sneaky person.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: June 01, 2008, 04:44:37 pm »
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Epic fail.

This was roughly as bad as ARG's "polling" of South Carolina.
« Last Edit: June 01, 2008, 04:47:28 pm by Mr. Morden »Logged

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Sam Spade
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« Reply #16 on: June 01, 2008, 05:34:02 pm »
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So Puerto Rico polling is as bad as US polling.  Not surprised.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #17 on: June 01, 2008, 05:58:23 pm »
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So Puerto Rico polling is as bad as US polling.  Not surprised.

They way overestimated turnout, which I suspect is what sank them (as the group most likely to vote was the group most favorable to Clinton).
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