MS: McCain +6%

[Franzl]

McCain: 50%
Obama: 44%

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/mississippi/election_2008_mississippi_presidential_election

[Alcon]

OK, I'm done with polls

[Aizen]

In before Harry

[Sam Spade]

If this is the GE result, I wonder what amusing result we're going to have on the Senate side

(oh wait, I see in a separate window that this has already been posted).

Yes, McCain is up 6 in MS and up 28 in AL.  That's believable...

[agcatter]

Quick, dump some more Obama money into Mississippi.  It's winnable.  Zogby's polling of the South is right!

[agcatter]

I always knew Mississippi whites were more liberal than Alabama whites!!

[Franzl]

seriously, any idea why Rasmussen has been so greatly overestimating DEM support in the last couple of weeks?

[HardRCafé]

This may be the year the Green Party has a sporting chance in Biloxi, y'all!

[Democratic Hawk]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

[Verily]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

About right. The state is 37% black.

[Franzl]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

About right. The state is 37% black.

I suppose that could be right, if Obama is on the ballot.

But isn't black turnout in the south usually incredibly low?

[Gustaf]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

About right. It was 34% in 2004 according to exit polls. Of course, Kerry got 14% of the white vote. Assuming Obama is getting 90% of the black vote per usual he would have to get substantially more than that. I find that hard to believe in a state like MS.

[Tender Branson]

I´ve said it before: If 40% of the MS electorate on Election Day is African-American, then Obama would win the state by getting 20.5% of Whites. Not going to happen though. I think he got between 14-18% of Whites in this Rasmussen poll.

[Sam Spade]

Obama could realistically get 95% of the black vote in a state like Mississippi.  I think it is additionally possible that the AA% could get as high as 40%, but I really doubt it gets any higher, and it's more likely that it's lower (for a few reasons, though of course higher than Kerry).

If he got 15% of the white vote in MS, with 40% blacks, then we're up to 47%.  But the only whites left in MS who vote Democrat are in the Hill Country and the colleges.

[Eraserhead]

Could Barr do any serious damage to McCain here? I wouldn't think so...

[exopolitician]

Heres the senate poll if nobody saw it:

In yet another indication that Senate Republicans are really playing on defense everywhere this year, a new Rasmussen poll has bad news for them in even the deep-red state of Mississippi, with appointed Sen. Roger Wicker (R) now trailing former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove (D) in a race that's within the margin of error:

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As we noted a few days ago, Wicker is already up on the air -- having to introduce himself to voters in a state that President Bush carried with 60% of the vote in 2004.

If the Dems were to manage to knock off a GOP Senator in the Deep South, it really would be a massive victory.






...massive victory indeed.

[Brittain33]

If he got 15% of the white vote in MS, with 40% blacks, then we're up to 47%.  But the only whites left in MS who vote Democrat are in the Hill Country and the colleges.

This poll's showing 44%, so what's the problem? I could believe this poll (as I said elsewhere, I have no grounding for claiming it's factual or relevant) and still believe Obama has essentially no chance to win the state.

[Lief 🗽]

Obama won't win Mississippi, but he'll help Musgrove pick up the Senate seat.

[Flying Dog]

It would be nice but.......no.

[Sbane]

I think Obama has a good chance of breaking 45% but no chance at all of winning. Those whites in MS tend to be stubborn.

[7,052,770]

Obama won't win Mississippi, but he'll help Musgrove pick up the Senate seat.

bingo.

[Хahar 🤔]

Obama won't win Mississippi, but he'll help Musgrove pick up the Senate seat.

bingo.

Yep.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Obama won't win Mississippi, but he'll help Musgrove pick up the Senate seat.

bingo.

Yep.

Indeed.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Could Barr do any serious damage to McCain here? I wouldn't think so...

nah, 3rd parties don't do well in the south, and Mississippi Republicans are not libertarian.

[Verily]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

About right. The state is 37% black.

I suppose that could be right, if Obama is on the ballot.

But isn't black turnout in the south usually incredibly low?

Not really. What is low is black registration as voters--but only in states with restrictive registration laws, which MS does not have. As Gustaf posted, 34% of voters in MS were black, so the differential turnout was slightly low but not very. Compare that to places like Florida which have intensely restrictive registration laws and where black registration and thus differential turnout is much lower.