MS: McCain +6%

[Democratic Hawk]

Incidentally, the 44% support for Obama matches his 44% favorability rating. Is a 36% African American sample too high or about right for MS?

Dave

About right. It was 34% in 2004 according to exit polls. Of course, Kerry got 14% of the white vote. Assuming Obama is getting 90% of the black vote per usual he would have to get substantially more than that. I find that hard to believe in a state like MS.

Assuming Obama is getting 90% of the black vote (36%) that gives him 32.40 %. Add to that 14% of the white vote (64%), which is 8.96%; this gives him a total base of 41.36% - so he must be running either 1) better among blacks than 90% or 2) better than among whites than 14%

Give Obama say 18% among whites = 11.52% + 32.4% = 43.92%

Give Obama say 95% among blacks =  34.2% + 8.96% = 43.16%

Either is well short of winning; but:

Give Obama (95% of 36%) 34.2% + (20% of 64%) 12.8% = 47%; however, give Obama (25% of 64%) 16%, it would be 50.2%

In sum, Obama needs 1 in 4 white voters to stand any real shot at MS - unless blacks were to comprise 40% of the electorate and even then he needs to be winning 20% of whites

Dave

[Stranger in a strange land]

what if black turnout is up and white evangelical turnout is down? I have a hard time seeing them turn out for McCain with the same force for which they turned out for Bush.

[7,052,770]

what if black turnout is up and white evangelical turnout is down? I have a hard time seeing them turn out for McCain with the same force for which they turned out for Bush.

That is what I hoping against hope will happen.  Blacks turnout in record numbers, white evangelicals stay home, Barr gets about 3%, Obama gets just enough of the white vote to eek about a 48.6-48.4 win.  All of my dreams would come true.  Note that I'm not predicting this, or saying it will happen, I'm just saying it's what I dream of at night.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This speculation is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone speculated like this for McCain, they'd be thrown off the forum, or at least have 5 pages of arguing ensuing.

[Lief 🗽]

This speculation is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone speculated like this for McCain, they'd be thrown off the forum, or at least have 5 pages of arguing ensuing.

Jesus Christ, stop whining constantly. There's no liberal conspiracy to shut up people with hackish McCain predictions. No one has said that Obama will win Mississippi. We're just looking at how different turn-out rates (some of them purely hypothetical) could change the margin in the state, which is so easy with Mississippi because of the polarized racial voting patterns.

[7,052,770]

This speculation is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone speculated like this for McCain, they'd be thrown off the forum, or at least have 5 pages of arguing ensuing.

Show me a state that voted under in the 50-60% range for Kerry in 2004 that shows McCain within 6 points of Obama.  If there is such a state, then it is reasonable to discuss the possibility, however remote, of McCain winning there in November.

[Sam Spade]

Ya, the whining is annoying.  It's only one poll - although as usual its amusing to see Harry drawing conclusions.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

This speculation is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone speculated like this for McCain, they'd be thrown off the forum, or at least have 5 pages of arguing ensuing.

Show me a state that voted under in the 50-60% range for Kerry in 2004 that shows McCain within 6 points of Obama.  If there is such a state, then it is reasonable to discuss the possibility, however remote, of McCain winning there in November.

I could introduce you to Massachusetts and NJ, but the last polls out of there showed Obama ahead by comfortable margins. Even before that, though, when many polls showed the states close, suggesting they could even be competitive brought outcry from your side. Don't play this game with me. Remember, "there's no way John 100 years in Iraq McCain can win a Kerry state." So why even bother showing states that went to Kerry where McCain is within 6%. They don't count.

[Brittain33]

whine

Who got thrown off of the forum from those threads?

[Warren Griffin]

More stuff :

Could Obama Win Mississippi?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/18/115022/815/380/517291

[7,052,770]

Ya, the whining is annoying.  It's only one poll - although as usual its amusing to see Harry drawing conclusions.

lulz.

[Stranger in a strange land]

This speculation is absolutely ridiculous. If anyone speculated like this for McCain, they'd be thrown off the forum, or at least have 5 pages of arguing ensuing.

Jesus Christ, stop whining constantly. There's no liberal conspiracy to shut up people with hackish McCain predictions. No one has said that Obama will win Mississippi. We're just looking at how different turn-out rates (some of them purely hypothetical) could change the margin in the state, which is so easy with Mississippi because of the polarized racial voting patterns.

like the people who said McCain would win Massachusetts and Califronia?