How Barr could change the election

[Josh/Devilman88]

This is the map of Barr/Root taking  1% of McCain voters away in every state.

Obama: 276
McCain: 262
Barr: 0

[Verily]

Or, you could have made this map without considering Barr, and it would have been reasonably realistic.

[zombones]

Michigan is not voting Republican

[Alcon]

Or, you could have made this map without considering Barr, and it would have been reasonably realistic.

Yeah -- I have no idea how one would extrapolate this.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I should tell you guys how I did it. I use fivethrityeight.com numbers. If McCain was ahead I took away 1% if Obama was ahead I added 1%.

[Alcon]

I should tell you guys how I did it. I use fivethrityeight.com numbers. If McCain was ahead I took away 1% if Obama was ahead I added 1%.

I don't think Barr would get a net 1% from McCain's poll numbers (100% of his support) if he polled at 1%.  Most of his supporters are probably "other candidate" respondents, so he'd need something like 3-4% before he removed a net 1% from McCain, at least.

[Josh/Devilman88]

Or, you could have made this map without considering Barr, and it would have been reasonably realistic.

Well without Barr this is the map, of the current polls...

McCain: 286
Obama: 252

[ChrisFromNJ]

I wonder if Barr could have an impact out West. In 2004, Nevada was decided by only 20,000 votes. New Mexico was decided by only 6,000 votes. I wonder if Barr could take just enough votes away from McCain to tip those states to Obama.

[Josh/Devilman88]

I should tell you guys how I did it. I use fivethrityeight.com numbers. If McCain was ahead I took away 1% if Obama was ahead I added 1%.

I don't think Barr would get a net 1% from McCain's poll numbers (100% of his support) if he polled at 1%.  Most of his supporters are probably "other candidate" respondents, so he'd need something like 3-4% before he removed a net 1% from McCain, at least.

Well that map is Barr taking 1% of his voters away in every state.

[zombones]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

[King]

This is the map of Barr/Root getting 1% in every state.

Obama: 276
McCain: 262
Barr: 0

Why not just give Obama a couple of southern states and rename it "1976"?

[Verily]

Of course, there are all sorts of ways in which Barr's support would be skewed. On 1% nationally, he'd probably get as high as 7-8% in Alaska, maybe 3-5% in the Mountains and probably also 3-5% in Georgia while polling well below 1% in the rest of the South and the Midwest. (He's also unlikely to get on the ballot in Oklahoma.)

[12th Doctor]

If Bob Barr takes .1% in the polls, I'll be amazed.  Plus, there are just as many fridge wackjobs running on the Liberal side who can take a few votes away from Obama.

[Alcon]

If Bob Barr takes .1% in the polls, I'll be amazed.

Really?  Even David Cobb managed .1% and he had many fewer states than the Libertarians do.

[emailking]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

Well enough to get 33/35 = 94.3% of the Georgia delegates to vote for him at the convention. I think Georgia could be one of his bigger states.

[Robespierre's Jaw]

I cannot see Bob Barr having an impact at all in the General. Bob Barr, in my mind, would be lucky even to crack the 1% mark nationwide in the McCain/Obama Election. However, saying this, I believe that Barr has the potential to do well in Alaska. And if he pulls anywhere between 6-8%, Obama could possibly win Alaska and her 3 Electoral Votes . If only. If only...

[bgwah]

I dunno, I could see some McCain-hating Republicans voting for Barr...

[Torie]

I dunno, I could see some McCain-hating Republicans voting for Barr...

There are a few out there, actually. But he is against the Patriot Act, so that takes out the punish the perps cohort of McCain haters.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I dunno, I could see some McCain-hating Republicans voting for Barr...

There are a few out there, actually. But he is against the Patriot Act, so that takes out the punish the perps cohort of McCain haters.

what are his views on immigration? That seems to be the right's biggest problem with McCain.

[Bacon King]

I could really see Barr getting 5-7% in Georgia.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

Well enough to get 33/35 = 94.3% of the Georgia delegates to vote for him at the convention. I think Georgia could be one of his bigger states.

Mary Ruwart would have totally won Tennessee then.

Actually I think the fact that Barr, a former member of Congress, barely beat a random activist doctor is instructive of his lack of political capability.

I could really see Barr getting 5-7% in Georgia.

I'd defer to you as a Georgian,  but I am skeptical of 7% of Georgians voting for an ACLU attorney and Marijuana Policy Project lobbyist.  Southerners tend to shy away from third parties, except when the third party is a temporary replacement for a major party (i.e. Wallace in '68).

[Adlai Stevenson]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

Well enough to get 33/35 = 94.3% of the Georgia delegates to vote for him at the convention. I think Georgia could be one of his bigger states.

Mary Ruwart would have totally won Tennessee then.

Actually I think the fact that Barr, a former member of Congress, barely beat a random activist doctor is instructive of his lack of political capability.

I could really see Barr getting 5-7% in Georgia.

I can't see Barr getting more than 2%-3% in Georgia to be honest.  My prediction:

GEORGIA PRESIDENT -
54% (R) McCain
43% (D) Obama
  2% (L) Barr

I'd defer to you as a Georgian,  but I am skeptical of 7% of Georgians voting for an ACLU attorney and Marijuana Policy Project lobbyist.  Southerners tend to shy away from third parties, except when the third party is a temporary replacement for a major party (i.e. Wallace in '68).

[Josh/Devilman88]

PPP will add Barr to their poll for now on. Their first Obama vs McCain vs Barr poll will be out on Monday for NC. We will see if changes anything at al in NC. I could see Barr getting 1% maybe 2% if he is lucky in NC. And I see Barr getting close to 4% in a McCain/Clinton match up in NC.

[emailking]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

Well enough to get 33/35 = 94.3% of the Georgia delegates to vote for him at the convention. I think Georgia could be one of his bigger states.

Mary Ruwart would have totally won Tennessee then.

Did I say he would win...or even come close? If Ruwart had gotten the nomination then Tennessee could have been one of her bigger states, yes.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

How well-liked is Barr in Georgia?

Well enough to get 33/35 = 94.3% of the Georgia delegates to vote for him at the convention. I think Georgia could be one of his bigger states.

Mary Ruwart would have totally won Tennessee then.

Did I say he would win...or even come close? If Ruwart had gotten the nomination then Tennessee could have been one of her bigger states, yes.

*sigh*

There are like twenty Libertarians in Tennessee.  The rest might have voted for Barr, Root, Phillies, etc. but they got distracted by the Star Trek convention down the street.  A few dorks - whether in Tennessee, Georgia, or wherever- are not indicative of the preferences of thousands or millions of actual voters.