24 Hidden Electoral Votes.

[°Leprechaun]

Candidates tend to ignore states with 3 or 4 electoral votes
even though some of these could be "swingers".
None of the 3 electoral vote states are usually considered swing states,
although with more attention perhaps Delaware and Montana could be.
New Hampshire (4) is definately and possibly Maine (4) or at least the more
Republican district in Maine are.


7 smallest states plus DC = 24 electoral votes

12 smallest states plus DC = 44 electoral votes (3/4 votes)

[°Leprechaun]

The map is based on electoral votes and therefore a crude population map.
If you see any obvious mistakes feel free to point them out.
The 3&4 states are obviously the lightest color.
etc etc

[elcorazon]

the small states can be a really efficient way of gaining electoral votes as they are disproportionately represented due to their 2 senators, despite their low populations.  Of course this kinda depends on how their media markets are set up.  And with the western states their populations are so spread out that it may not be all that fruitful.

Add to that that many of them are too far from the center to be "in play" (DC being the most obvious example) and for the most part they are ignored.

NH, Maine, Delaware, Montana and possibly the Dakotas, I suppose could be winnable by either side under the right circumstances.  I still believe Vermont and Rhode Island are not crazy possibilities to become in play at some point (although not this cycle). 

Even states with 60/40 splits can be turned with relatively few people changing sides.  Big states where splits are 53-47 still require a ton of people to switch to actually change the result.

[JSojourner]

I don't see how Delaware could be winnable absent a major Obama gaffe or scandal.  It's kinda like suggesting an Obama win in North Dakota or Wyoming, isn't it?

[Alcon]

I don't see how Delaware could be winnable absent a major Obama gaffe or scandal.  It's kinda like suggesting an Obama win in North Dakota or Wyoming, isn't it?

Not really.  Delaware is not nearly as Democratic as North Dakota, and especially Wyoming, are Republican.  It's just Democratic enough, and with few enough electoral votes, that it's not worth much trouble.

The bulk of Delaware's population lives in the pricy Philadelphia media market, so generally advertising there is cross-contamination.  The southern third (in geography, definitely not population) is in the moderately-priced but electorally useless Salisbury, Md., media market.

It's just not really worth it in an election year when bigger states are in play (which is essentially the answer to this entire topic.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The only one of these small states that will be in play in a close election is New Hampshire, so it's not surprising that they get so little notice.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

New Hampshire is the only <5 EV state that will be within 5 points this year; so there's no real point.

[J. J.]

A couple of things:

1.  Some of the small states tend to overwhelmingly go to to one party, e.g. WY is R, DC is D.

2.  Some of those states are well within the media market of a larger state, e.g. if you are running an air campaign in Philadelphia, you're running one in DE.

Of that list, really only NH and NM are really in play in an Obama/McCain race.  It does open up a bit with Clinton/McCain.

[Padfoot]

With multiple polls indicating many of these small states may be more competitive than usual and the fact that Obama built up a large amount of grassroots support in those same states during the primary I wouldn't be surprised if he at least ran ads in Alaska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, and Nebraska.  They're all long shots but if Obama is able to maintain his enormous fundraising advantage then its well worth it IMO.  It might even result in some actual wins too since Nebraska uses the CD method and Alaska is looking surprisingly good for Democrats at the Congressional level as well.

New Hampshire, Nevada and New Mexico will undoubtedly be hotly contested as well.

[Josh/Devilman88]

one mistake you can make in presidential politics is to visit all fifty states. look at Nixon in 1960.

Look at Obama, he is doing it and he is way ahead in the polls.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

one mistake you can make in presidential politics is to visit all fifty states. look at Nixon in 1960.

That didn't cost Nixon the election.  Continuing to campaign after banging up his knee instead of resting and refusing makeup in the debate cost him the election.