How will the Court rule on the DC Handgun Case?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

This is the law for those interested:

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[A18]

Judging by the oral argument, it seems very likely that Chief Justice Roberts and Justices Scalia, Kennedy (huzzah!), Thomas, and Alito will vote to strike down the handgun ban. Interestingly, Justice Kennedy seemed to go the farthest in dismissing the importance of the preamble, and suggested that perhaps the Miller standard was deficient.

Justices Stevens and Souter seem like sure votes for DC. Although the arguments (er, "questions") they put forward were somewhat better than those of DC's advocate, they were paradoxically somewhat more bizarre as well--often making strained analogies from contemporaneous state provisions with markedly different wording.

It thus appears that at least two judges on our highest court are firmly in the camp of DC--and on its weakest, most intellectually bankrupt argument, to boot.

Justice Ginsburg also looks like a strong vote for DC, though I'm less confident as to her. Meanwhile, Justice Breyer seemed to be looking for some theoretical middle ground, but in practice came across as ready to bury the Second Amendment--just preferably alive, and while no one is looking.

Happily, though, it appears that Heller has five votes.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Probably overturn 5-4.  It'll only be overturned 6-3 if the ruling (or Breyer's concurrence) is a narrow one that doesn't address whether the second amendment's right to bear arms is a collective or individual right.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Can anyone get a link to the oral argument?  The C-Span one doesn't seem to be working

[Хahar 🤔]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

[Person Man]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

[bullmoose88]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

[A18]

Can anyone get a link to the oral argument?  The C-Span one doesn't seem to be working

http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2007/2007_07_290/argument/

Enjoy.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Can anyone get a link to the oral argument?  The C-Span one doesn't seem to be working

http://www.oyez.org/cases/2000-2009/2007/2007_07_290/argument/

Enjoy.

Thanks a lot

[WalterMitty]

5-3 to strike down the ban.

breyer, stevens and ginsburg in dissent.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

5-3 to strike down the ban.

breyer, stevens and ginsburg in dissent.

Which Justice doesn't vote?

[Kaine for Senate '18]

After listening to the oral argument, it seems to me that at least 5 Justices are going to overturn the law.  Dellinger seemed to fumble over his words a little bit, and his logic seemed rather faulty.

[Person Man]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

Bush and Ford, right? but they are as republican as the pope is baptist.

[WalterMitty]

5-3 to strike down the ban.

breyer, stevens and ginsburg in dissent.

Which Justice doesn't vote?

typo.  i meant to type 6-3.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

5-3 to strike down the ban.

breyer, stevens and ginsburg in dissent.

Which Justice doesn't vote?

typo.  i meant to type 6-3.

Interesting; what makes you think Souter will go with the conservatives?

[bullmoose88]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

Bush and Ford, right? but they are as republican as the pope is baptist.

They're just as Republican as anyone else in the party...let's not forget that Republican really isn't an ideology in the United States...anyone can rightfully be a Republican...but they're as conservative as the Pope is Baptist.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

Bush and Ford, right? but they are as republican as the pope is baptist.

They're just as Republican as anyone else in the party...let's not forget that Republican really isn't an ideology in the United States...anyone can rightfully be a Republican...but they're as conservative as the Pope is Baptist.

No, the Pope is more Baptist than Stevens is conservative.

[bullmoose88]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

Bush and Ford, right? but they are as republican as the pope is baptist.

They're just as Republican as anyone else in the party...let's not forget that Republican really isn't an ideology in the United States...anyone can rightfully be a Republican...but they're as conservative as the Pope is Baptist.

No, the Pope is more Baptist than Stevens is conservative.

Couple of things...1) Stevens is actually pretty pro-law and order and tends to favor the government when its challenged, 2) Stevens also sits in William O Douglas' seat...perhaps its influenced him in some way

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

Bush and Ford, right? but they are as republican as the pope is baptist.

They're just as Republican as anyone else in the party...let's not forget that Republican really isn't an ideology in the United States...anyone can rightfully be a Republican...but they're as conservative as the Pope is Baptist.

No, the Pope is more Baptist than Stevens is conservative.

Couple of things...1) Stevens is actually pretty pro-law and order and tends to favor the government when its challenged, 2) Stevens also sits in William O Douglas' seat...perhaps its influenced him in some way

I haven't noticed Stevens being pro law and order, what opinions has he written for that point of view?

[Frodo]

There would be a 6 to 3 majority on the Supreme Court if the question is simply whether the Second Amendment protects, first and foremost, an individual right to bear arms (assuming what I hear about Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg is correct).

As to the DC gun ban, then the numbers would be more like 5 to 4 in favor of declaring such bans unconstitutional, as well as subjecting current and future gun control measures to strict scrutiny by the courts. 

[SPC]

Overturn 5-4.

On ideological lines, of course.

more like party lines. Though I think it will be 6-3.

Err..you do understand Souter and Stevens are Republicans...right?

(WARNING: WANDERING OFF TOPIC)

Yet another reason why the "Vote for McCain to keep strict constructionists on the court" argument is bullsh**t.

[Sam Spade]

Probably 7-2, with the ruling being less friendly to gun rights activists than people think (though better than the current situation).

[Frodo]

I know the decision is expected this month, but does anyone happen to know when in June they will rule on this case? 

[A18]

I know the decision is expected this month, but does anyone happen to know when in June they will rule on this case? 

There's no fixed date, known in advance. But probably June 26.