What are the Most likely nations to form this century?

[Undisguised Sockpuppet]

So what does this group think are the most likely nations to form this century? My guesses are some state of the 'core EU'(france+germany+benelux) merging into one, Catalonia. For vanishing? My guesses are Bolivia as a united state(parts of the east want to leave while some indian radicals want to form a 'Collasuyu' consisting of the rest of bolivia and parts of it's neighbors) and some of the more integrated EU nations vanishing if the EU project gets off the ground. The common cliche of Quebec getting free IMO strikes me as unlikely. They had 2 chances to vote on it and turned it down. So what else does everyone else see as likely?

[Хahar 🤔]

Kosovo and Albania could merge, if the great powers finally agree.

I honestly can't see Belgium sticking around too long.

[Sensei]

i suspect the map of Africa will look dramatically different after there is some effort made to draw borders along cultural lines.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

i suspect the map of Africa will look dramatically different after there is some effort made to draw borders along cultural lines.

I also think there will be a Kurdish state eventually.

[J. J.]

I doubt that Nepal and possibly Bhutan will last until 2028.

[The Mikado]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an Abkhazia (as a Russian client state), a Transniestria (same), a merger between Belarus and Russia (once Belarus has a sane president), and a Palestine (who knows when, but it will happen).    If Pakistan collapses (a small but realistic possibility), we might see a free Baluchistan.

I wouldn't be surprised to see little Kyrgyzstan absorbed by the Chinese.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why Nepal, J. J.?  Do you think it'll disintegrate so badly that India will move in to keep China from doing the same?  Absent a total collapse, I can't see India seeking to annex Nepal.

The reuniting of a Central American republic is a possibility.

[The Mikado]

[quote author=Douglas Hordern link=topic=76772.msg1576148#msg1576148
The reuniting of a Central American republic is a possibility.
[/quote]

Really?

[Хahar 🤔]

A century ago, there was no Poland, and we had Austria-Hungary. Just 60 years ago, there were all of two independent states in Africa. Anything could happen.

[Cubby]

If Pakistan collapses (a small but realistic possibility), we might see a free Baluchistan.

What would happen to Sindh, Punjab and the NW Frontier? Would the former two be absorbed by India and the other parts by Afghanistan?

I wouldn't be surprised to see little Kyrgyzstan absorbed by the Chinese.

They better not. They have more than enough land as it is. If anything, Xinjiang and Tibet should become independent.

On a separate note, as Russia's population shrinks further, a possibility is Irkutsk and Sakha and all points east to either become independent or get settled by Chinese.

There will be a new country when Sudan breaks in half. (This will happen, a referendum will be held in 2011 on whether to remain part of Sudan).

[dead0man]

Kurdistan (it pretty much is already)
Hawaii
Flanders/Wallonia

I agree that Africa will be redrawn but not because the powers that be thought it would be a good idea.  No, they will be redrawn because of war.  China and NATO will be the external forces.  Southern Africa and the Indian Ocean will be the battlefield.  China will lose.  We'll spend trillions "fixing up" southern Africa to "right a wrong" then a decade later they will kick us out, mostly non-violently.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Africa (most likely countries): Southern Sudan, Western Sahara, Somaliland (in the latter two cases recognition of independence).

The Caucasus could get pretty balkanized (or "caucasunized"): Abkhazia, Chechnya, Nagorno-Karabakh etc.

Middle East: Palestine and Kurdistan.

East Asia: Taiwan (recognition of independence) and a unified Korea as soon as the regime in the north collapses.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

A century ago, there was no Poland, and we had Austria-Hungary.

I highly doubt that the circumstances that led to the creation of Poland and the end of Austria-Hungary will happen again.

Just 60 years ago, there were all of two independent states in Africa. Anything could happen.

Likewise with Africa; it just seems unlikely.

[Albus Dumbledore]

If the idealists who believe in multinational federations like the EU are right we'll have less independent nations. However, if they prove to be wrong we'll have alot more. My guess is somewhere in the middle with more stable zones ending up parts of federations while the third world is either in permanent chaos or tiny microstates.

[Хahar 🤔]

A century ago, there was no Poland, and we had Austria-Hungary.

I highly doubt that the circumstances that led to the creation of Poland and the end of Austria-Hungary will happen again.

Just 60 years ago, there were all of two independent states in Africa. Anything could happen.

Likewise with Africa; it just seems unlikely.

As unlikely as decolonization did back then.

[opebo]

I'm hoping for Greater Canada and Jesusland.

But I'm sure the Canadians would have serious doubts about that. 

[AkSaber]

a merger between Belarus and Russia (once Belarus has a sane president)

I thought of that one too.

How about Romania and Moldova becoming one nation?

[Albus Dumbledore]

PR being independent? Doubtful. Statehood is far more likely. Then again, in general I expect to see a reversal of the current trend of more and more independent nations.

[afleitch]

I would consider most of those suggested so far (eg Tatarstan)  to be 'nations' anyway if that is the entity that their people identify with, independent or not.

[Albus Dumbledore]

I meant nation as in recognized governments(also nation-state wouldn't fit in the title ).

[afleitch]

I meant nation as in recognized governments(also nation-state wouldn't fit in the title ).

I had thought so I was just throwing it out there.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Fair nuff. The nations in question already exist... their states don't.(yet)

I don't think all of Europe will merge into one unit.