Crime Rates Shown to Be Falling

[Beet]

Lastest figures show a reversal of an upward tick, but the picture remains complicated
By Emma Schwartz
Posted June 11, 2008

It was an alarming trend. In 2005 and 2006 violent crime began to creep up again. With growing economic uncertainty and hundreds of thousands of convicts leaving prison each year, law enforcement officials began to warn that the country might be headed for a reprise of the crime wave of the late 1980s and early '90s."There are those that say this is a statistical blip, an aberration," Chuck Wexler, executive director of the Police Executive Research Forum told the Associated Press at the time. "After two years, this is no aberration."

But the release this week of preliminary crime statistics for last year shows a 1.4 percent drop in violent crime and a 2.1 percent decline in property crime rates. The minor upticks in crime during 2005 and 2006 (2.3 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively, for violent crime) appear to be no more than minor fluctuations from the historic low crime rate reached in 2000.

Yet simply saying that crime rates have remained relatively stable nationwide hardly explains the great divergence in crime patterns across the country. The average figures mask much more complicated fluctuations between big cities and rural areas and between regions like the Northeast and the South. "It's almost like a tale of two cities," Wexler said this week.

Take, for instance, the overall drop in homicides. Nationally, the decline was 2.7 percent, but most of that decrease came from major cities like New York (down 20 percent, to 496 homicides) and Los Angeles (down 19 percent, to 380 homicides). Among cities with populations over 1 million, murder rates dropped 9.8 percent. That is a stark contrast to medium-size cities. Those with populations of 100,000 to 249,999 saw a 1.9 percent rise in murder rates. For cities with 50,000 to 99,999 residents, the increase was even greater: 3.7 percent.

What precisely explains why big cities are doing so much better isn't entirely clear. Criminologists point to several factors. For instance, major cities have more sophisticated policing methods and more resources to respond to any fluctuations in crime rates. Regardless, the drop in big-city murder rates has a strong influence on the overall average. "A big piece of what is going on by region is very much driven by what's going on in the big cities," says Alfred Blumstein, a criminologist at Carnegie Mellon University.

Size wasn't the only factor. Northeastern cities represented the lion's share of the violent crime decline, with an overall drop of 5.4 percent. In addition to New York, cities like Boston and Philadelphia saw downturns in their murder rates. Yet others did not budge. For instance, Newark, N.J., reported 105 homicides in 2006 and 2007.

On average, violent crime in the South went up 0.7 percent, concentrated in large metropolitan areas like New Orleans (where homicides increased 29 percent, to 209) and Atlanta (where homicides went up 17 percent, to 129). In these instances, local factors played a key role. New Orleans is still trying to get a handle on the crime increase that followed Hurricane Katrina. In Atlanta, Deputy Police Chief Peter Andresen pointed to several factors leading to last year's increase, particularly heavy gang activity and an overhaul of narcotics units. He noted that, despite the increase in homicides, other violent crime, like aggravated assault, declined 2 percent.

This divergence is so widespread that, according to a recent survey by the Police Executive Research Forum, the number of cities reporting an increase in homicides was almost the same as the number reporting a decline.

But this divergence does not break down neatly into geographic or size categories. Instead, the pattern over the past few years is one of volatility in crimes rates. Many cities go up one year and down the next, some see their rates decline year after year, and others are continuously struggling with high rates.

Unlike in the late 1980s and '90s, when the crack epidemic sent crime rates up across the board, there "isn't a consistent set of national trends" these days, says Frank Zimring, a professor at the University of California-Berkeley's Boalt Hall School of Law.

And the future is even less certain. With rising food and oil prices, many cities are seeing an increase in crime—particularly property crimes—in 2008. But predicting crime rates is an even less certain science than economic forecasting. For now, says Blumstein, the best advice may be that "it's much more local conditions rather than some common national condition."

[Tender Branson]

Here to: In Austria, the homicide rate has fallen to its lowest level ever last year. 39 homicides took place. The country has 8.33 Mio. inhabitants, therefore a homicide rate of 0.47 per 100.000 inhabitants. This is 1/10th of the US homicide rate.

[© tweed]

Freakonomics says it is because of abortion

[Beet]

Here is another hypothesis:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Link

Here is Steve Levitt's response to the lead theory:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Here is the Wolpay Reyes paper Levitt is referring to.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Ah, guys, while I suspect abortion rates do play a role in crime rates, and the "lead" issue may also play a role (correlation does NOT prove causation), let me suggest a simpler explanation.

Only a small percentage of the population causes mala in se crimes.

This small percentage tends to be repeat offenders.

Since 1980 (the year Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaugher rates peaked) there has been a significant increse in the prison population.

Kind of hard to murder someone outside the prison when you're locked up.

Here's some stats:

  Number of sentenced inmates incarcerated under State and Federal jurisdiction per 100,000 population
 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
1980 139   

1985 202   

1990 297   

1995 411   

2000 478   

2005 491   

2006 501   

Source: Correctional Populations in the United States and Prisoners in 2006


 

[© tweed]

how about we incarcerate the entire population?  that way, our crime rate will be zero.

[CARLHAYDEN]

how about we incarcerate the entire population?  that way, our crime rate will be zero.

Evidently you do not understand.

First, a very small percentage of the population is responsible for the bulk of the Mala in Se felonies.

Second, if those persons are incarcerated, they are incapacitaed from committing crimes against persons outside the prison.

 

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

Freakonomics says it is because of abortion

That's what convinced me to become pro-choice too!

[CARLHAYDEN]

George Will has an interesting column on this subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/crime_debate_reduced_to_incarc.html

[Beet]

George Will has an interesting column on this subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/crime_debate_reduced_to_incarc.html

This article also to be found on the Washington Post.

Will is right insofar as he goes. Steve Levitt cited increases in the number of police (which conservatives do not like to mention because their programs have cut police budgets), increased prison population, the receding crack epidemic (which there is no point for conservatives to mention because it does not carry obvious political connotations), and abortion rates (which conservatives do not want to mention for obvious reasons). On top of that Reyes adds a reduced exposure to lead among children, which conservatives would like to ignore, once again. Out of 5 plausible explanations given by Levitt & Reyes, Will focuses on the one which politically expedient, and for evidence to back up his thesis he cites only ideologically aligned sources, but that is hardly a surprise.

Personally, my theory (which conservatives should like) is the fall of the Soviet Union reduced crime rates. In some instances, crime peaked in 1991 or 1992, right around the time the USSR was coming down. The Kremlin was obviously feeding crack & inciting crime into the US through the KGB. Either that, or the mugger in the Bronx hood saw that the "big bullies" of the world were giving things up in favor of kumbaya, so they should as well.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Abolish laws against victimless crimes, toss out the obscene taxes for alcohol/smokes(to reduce the urge for smuggling), toss out idiotic public intoxication laws(keep drunk living laws but that's it), legalize (and regulate) gambling and do the same for prostitution. Thosae reforms would clear up aloto f money for cracking down o nactual crimes.

[Albus Dumbledore]

Yes. Drunk driving a typo on my part.

[Umengus]

George Will has an interesting column on this subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/crime_debate_reduced_to_incarc.html

Incarceration is the solution. Even a child knows that.

But the fight against crime is not over. We must continue to be tough, to incarcerate more and more, to avoid releasing of criminals,...  It's the price of freedom for honest people.

[CARLHAYDEN]

George Will has an interesting column on this subject:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/crime_debate_reduced_to_incarc.html

Incarceration is the solution. Even a child knows that.

But the fight against crime is not over. We must continue to be tough, to incarcerate more and more, to avoid releasing of criminals,...  It's the price of freedom for honest people.

Actually, its an interesting theory which has entered the area of criminology about thirty years ago.

For centuries, the concept behind incarceration was punishment.

Then (largely starting with the Quakers) the concept of incarceration as part of a reformatory process took hold, and spread like a malignant cancer.

In the 1970s a number of criminologists noted that a relatively small number of criminals were responsible for a relatively high percentage of serious crimes, and suggested that by an increased rate of apprehension, successful prosecution and lengthier incarceration, they could be incapacitated from committing further crimes.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Just basedon observations around here, crime seemed to rise in the fall and winter (a couple  of murders around the area), but things have calmed down now.  Maybe it's back to normal levels now, but it's definitely down from what it was earlier here in Metro-Detroit.