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Author Topic: SD PrimD: ARG: Clinton enjoys a huge lead over Obama  (Read 20124 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: June 02, 2008, 12:44:59 pm »
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New Poll: South Dakota President by ARG on 2008-06-01

Summary:
Clinton:
60%
Obama:
34%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details


Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 56% to 39% among men (46% of likely Democratic primary voters). Among women, Clinton leads 63% to 29%.

Clinton leads 57% to 38% among voters age 18 to 49 (46% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads 63% to 30% among voters age 50 and older.

11% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the primary and 27% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: June 02, 2008, 12:46:47 pm »
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Okkkkaayyy. This is interesting ... Tongue
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: June 02, 2008, 12:47:54 pm »
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Umm...lol?
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #3 on: June 02, 2008, 12:48:26 pm »
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Ah, good ol' ARG.  How we missed ya.
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elcorazon
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« Reply #4 on: June 02, 2008, 12:49:13 pm »
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this actually made my stomach churn.  If true, this is really bad news for Obama.

I fear I may have been correct when I made the prediction that Wright has made Obama unelectable.
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« Reply #5 on: June 02, 2008, 12:49:47 pm »
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Quote from: elcorazon on June 02, 2008, 12:49:13 pm
this actually made my stomach churn.  If true, this is really bad news for Obama.

I fear I may have been correct when I made the prediction that Wright has made Obama unelectable.

You're basing that on one ARG poll from South Dakota?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: June 02, 2008, 12:49:59 pm »
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If Obama actually manages to win by 10 points tomorrow, this poll should be classified "worst ever" ...
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: June 02, 2008, 12:52:04 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on June 02, 2008, 12:44:59 pm
Summary:
Clinton:
60%
Obama:
34%
Other:
0%
Undecided:
6%

Based on ARG's track record, the expected actual result would be:

Other 68%
Undecided 40%
Obama 0.0005%
Clinton -18%
Rounding error 10%
« Last Edit: June 02, 2008, 12:57:01 pm by Mr. Morden »Logged
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Alcon
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« Reply #8 on: June 02, 2008, 12:52:49 pm »
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What.  The.  Hell.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: June 02, 2008, 12:53:35 pm »
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On to Denver!
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Franzl
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2008, 12:53:58 pm »
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Quote from: President Keystone Phil on June 02, 2008, 12:53:35 pm
On to Denver!


sarcasm?
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Josh/Devilman88
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2008, 12:56:04 pm »
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HAHA funny, why do the even waste their money on polling? ARG is a joke.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2008, 12:57:27 pm »
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Quote from: Franzl on June 02, 2008, 12:53:58 pm
Quote from: President Keystone Phil on June 02, 2008, 12:53:35 pm
On to Denver!


sarcasm?

...

Yes.

Tongue
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2008, 12:57:52 pm »
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Quote from: Josh22 on June 02, 2008, 12:56:04 pm
HAHA funny, why do the even waste their money on polling? ARG is a joke.

It doesn't actually cost them that much.  It's not like it's that expensive to program a random number generator.
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Alcon
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2008, 12:58:13 pm »
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To take ARG too seriously, maybe this is why the Clinton campaign has been trumpeting South Dakota "pulling closer."  I mean, ARG sucks, but does it suck by >26 points?
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2008, 01:04:18 pm »
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Perhaps, SD just wants to be awkward. If it votes Clinton, it will stand out on the map like a bleeding sore thumb

Dave
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« Reply #16 on: June 02, 2008, 01:05:57 pm »
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Quote from: elcorazon on June 02, 2008, 12:49:13 pm

I fear I may have been correct when I made the prediction that Wright has made Obama unelectable.

No more than Bush should render McCain unelectable. The US ain't heading in the wrong direction because of insignificants like Wright

Dave
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Erc
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« Reply #17 on: June 02, 2008, 01:07:51 pm »
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South Dakota is a closed primary.

Every single major party figure in South Dakota has endorsed Obama (Daschle, Johnson, Herseth-Sandlin, all but 1 DNC member).

In February, the North Dakota caucuses picked Obama 61-37.

Maybe the Dakotas are just that different, maybe caucuses do have that large of a pro-Obama bias...

...or ARG just sucks.


Wouldn't it be amusing, though, if Clinton won South Dakota but didn't even show up to celebrate the victory?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #18 on: June 02, 2008, 01:11:01 pm »
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I donīt think that either Obama or Clinton will win comfortably tomorrow. I think they will be within 5 percent. For example, Obama did quite well in the ID caucuses, but "just" won 58% in the "beauty" primary.
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Aizen
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« Reply #19 on: June 02, 2008, 01:11:46 pm »
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A good way for ARG to end the primary season.
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Franzl
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« Reply #20 on: June 02, 2008, 01:14:17 pm »
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Quote from: Tender Branson on June 02, 2008, 01:11:01 pm
I donīt think that either Obama or Clinton will win comfortably tomorrow. I think they will be within 5 percent. For example, Obama did quite well in the ID caucuses, but "just" won 58% in the "beauty" primary.

Yes, you're quite right. Caucuses obviously inflate the margin of victory. But these "beauty contests" have deflated turnout considerably, haven't they? I think that should be relevant.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2008, 01:22:04 pm »
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Quote from: Aizen on June 02, 2008, 01:11:46 pm
A good way for ARG to end the primary season.

Indeed.  This poll is making me nostalgic for polls like these:

http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=51096.0

from before we all realized just how much of a sham ARG was.  ARG's polling of the 2008 primaries was truly in a class of its own.  Really, just thinking back on it all.....my eyes are getting misty.
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Cuivienen
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2008, 01:22:52 pm »
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Maybe they only conducted their poll on a Sioux reservation or something. The Sioux and Crow hate each other, and Obama is now an honorary Crow.
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Boris
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« Reply #23 on: June 02, 2008, 01:35:11 pm »
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Is this seriously the only poll we have from SD?
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Democratic Hawk
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« Reply #24 on: June 02, 2008, 01:38:21 pm »
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Quote from: Democratic 'Hawk' on June 02, 2008, 01:04:18 pm
Perhaps, SD just wants to be awkward different. If it votes Clinton, it will stand out on the map like a bleeding sore thumb botched boob job Tongue

Dave
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