SD PrimD: ARG: Clinton enjoys a huge lead over Obama

[Alcon]

What.  The.  Hell.

[Alcon]

To take ARG too seriously, maybe this is why the Clinton campaign has been trumpeting South Dakota "pulling closer."  I mean, ARG sucks, but does it suck by >26 points?

[Alcon]

I don´t think that either Obama or Clinton will win comfortably tomorrow. I think they will be within 5 percent. For example, Obama did quite well in the ID caucuses, but "just" won 58% in the "beauty" primary.

Yes, you're quite right. Caucuses obviously inflate the margin of victory. But these "beauty contests" have deflated turnout considerably, haven't they? I think that should be relevant.

Is that why in every "beauty contest" primary, turnout was larger than the caucus?

A state-sanctioned primary always has higher turnout than a caucus.  The "beauty contest" primaries, in turn, always have much lower turnout than a state-sanctioned primary that counts for something.

[Alcon]

On the other hand, if Clinton wins SD, ARG will be getting all sorts of accolades, even if it's a narrow, 2.6% win, rather than the 26% blowout they predict.

I think anyone who pays enough attention to polls to give accolades to polling groups will know that it'd still be a f-up.