SD PrimD: ARG: Clinton enjoys a huge lead over Obama

[Mr. Morden]

Summary:

Clinton:	60%
Obama:	34%
Other:	0%
Undecided:	6%

Based on ARG's track record, the expected actual result would be:

Other 68%
Undecided 40%
Obama 0.0005%
Clinton -18%
Rounding error 10%

[Mr. Morden]

HAHA funny, why do the even waste their money on polling? ARG is a joke.

It doesn't actually cost them that much.  It's not like it's that expensive to program a random number generator.

[Mr. Morden]

A good way for ARG to end the primary season.

Indeed.  This poll is making me nostalgic for polls like these:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=51096.0

from before we all realized just how much of a sham ARG was.  ARG's polling of the 2008 primaries was truly in a class of its own.  Really, just thinking back on it all.....my eyes are getting misty.

[Mr. Morden]

This poll makes no sense.  Obama was up by 12 last month here. 

That was before this huge burst of momentum for Clinton:

[Mr. Morden]

You are joking right?

Of course. 

[Mr. Morden]

Given my expectation of a +15% Obama win...

...when was the last time ARG missed a race by 40+%?

I don't think they've ever missed it by *quite* that much.  For the Democratic primary in SC, they were off by 26 points.  For the GOP caucus in Nevada, they were off by about 30 points (Research 2000 was actually even worse in that case).

There've been loads of times when they were off by about 10 or 15, but I'm not sure if there are any other instances of them being off by 25+ points.

[Mr. Morden]

Pretty much, but I could go on with the bad ARG polls

Off by 16 in Florida, by 17 in Connecticut, by 21 in Illinois, by 18 in Iowa...

This is fun!

Ah, the memories.

[Mr. Morden]

I'm getting pretty sure they'll tell us all tomorrow that the existence of the polling company was just a massive joke and they were using a fancy dartboard all along.

That must be it.  "American Research Group" is just a bunch of drunk college students using a dartboard, who've been releasing a bunch of ridiculous "polls", and waiting to see how long it takes someone to guess what's really going on.  For their grand finale, they're giving us one last chance to catch on to their game, as they release the most ridiculous "poll" of all.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton wins!!!   FEAR THE ARG!!!

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton wins!!!   FEAR THE ARG!!!

Never mind that they were twenty points off.

Minor detail.

We've now learned that, in an election in which there are no other polls besides ARG, it might be worth considering making a minor shift in our expectations of the outcome in the direction of the ARG poll.  If that isn't a victory for ARG, I don't know what is.