Given my expectation of a +15% Obama win...
...when was the last time ARG missed a race by 40+%?
Well, not an actual election, but they had Sununu up by eleven points while UNH (the gold standard in NH) had Shaheen up by eighteen a few months ago. (They "fixed" their numbers in the next poll and had Shaheen up.) That's only 29 points, of course. They were off by 26 in South Carolina. They had their last-minute switcharoo in Wisconsin: Clinton up six two days before the election and then Obama up ten the day of (the first poll then being off by 24).
