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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  My Gubernatorial Predictions
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Author Topic: My Gubernatorial Predictions  (Read 1008 times)
PragmaticPopulist
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« Reply #25 on: June 20, 2017, 08:21:02 am »
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No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.
This.

It's hard to see Gillespie pulling off a win in Virginia, since the state is becoming friendlier toward Democrats, and Trump is very unpopular there.

CT is a very plausible R pickup though. the state Democratic party has been eroded to the point where they only control the state senate because of the Lieutenant Governor, and have a narrow majority in the state house as well. CT also has a history of electing moderate Republican governors, like most other northeastern states.
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« Reply #26 on: June 20, 2017, 09:21:37 am »
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VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%
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Endorsements:
- President: Kamala Harris
- CA Governor: Gavin Newsom

- NJ Governor: Phil Murphy
- VA Governor: Ralph Northam
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« Reply #27 on: June 20, 2017, 10:23:10 am »
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while your outcome is correct, your MAP in ohio is pretty whacked.
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Rjjr77
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« Reply #28 on: June 20, 2017, 10:23:44 am »
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VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?
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« Reply #29 on: June 20, 2017, 11:12:04 am »
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No way Dems lose CT and VA

I don't see Dems losing VA either but CT is plausible. If KS can be competitive because of Brownback then CT can easily be competitive because of Malloy.

Dems are gonna win MD rather than KS because Carl Brewer is anti-2nd amendment.  Jealous will break out of pack in his anti-concealed weapon and MD will have a Democratic gain. As for CT, Dems will win.
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PAK Man
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« Reply #30 on: June 20, 2017, 11:52:02 am »
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My latest predictions:

2017:
New Jersey - Likely D
Virginia - Leans D

2018:
Alabama - Safe R
Alaska - Tossup
Arizona - Likely R
Arkansas - Safe R
California - Safe D
Colorado - Leans D
Connecticut - Tossup
Florida - Tossup
Georgia - Leans R
Hawaii - Safe D
Idaho - Safe R
Illinois - Tossup
Iowa - Leans R
Kansas - Leans R
Maine - Tossup
Maryland - Leans R
Massachusetts - Likely R
Michigan - Tossup
Minnesota - Leans D
Nebraska - Safe R
Nevada - Tossup
New Hampshire - Leans R
New Mexico - Leans D (+1)
New York - Safe D
Ohio - Leans R
Oklahoma - Likely R
Oregon - Safe D
Pennsylvania - Leans D
Rhode Island - Leans D
South Carolina - Safe R
South Dakota - Safe R
Tennessee - Likely R
Texas - Safe R
Vermont - Likely R
Wisconsin - Likely R
Wyoming - Safe R
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« Reply #31 on: June 20, 2017, 12:20:45 pm »
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Hogan veteoed Paid Leave of Absence and Sununu's race will become competetive.
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Spark498
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« Reply #32 on: June 20, 2017, 06:56:49 pm »
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Will Baker win all counties in MA except Boston?
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Endorsements:

2017

Governor: Guadagno (R-NJ), Gillespie (R-VA)

2018

Governor: Wagner (R-PA)
Senate: Comstock (R-VA)
House: TBD

2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #33 on: June 21, 2017, 09:15:58 am »
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VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?

I think Taylor will pull it off, because she received Kasich's endorsement, who is still very popular in OH.
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Endorsements:
- President: Kamala Harris
- CA Governor: Gavin Newsom

- NJ Governor: Phil Murphy
- VA Governor: Ralph Northam
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« Reply #34 on: June 21, 2017, 01:07:55 pm »
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VA will not flip GOP, while FL and OH will be closer.

My predictions (as of June 2017):

VA:
✓ Ralph Northam: 49.6%
Ed Gillipsie: 46.1%

NJ:
✓ Phil Murphy: 58.0%
Ed Gillipsie: 40.2%



OH:
✓ Mary Taylor: 54.4%
Joe Scheavoni: 43.9%

MI:
✓ Gretchen Whitmer: 52.5%
Bill Schuette: 46.2%

FL:
✓ John Morgan: 50.2%
Adam Putnam: 47.7%

PA:
✓ Tom Wolf (inc.): 54.5%
Scott Wagner: 45.5%

IL:
✓ Chris Kennedy: 51.7%
Bruce Rauner (inc.): 46.6%

CA:
✓ Gavin Newsom: 54.9%
Antonio Villaraigosa: 45.1%

NY:
✓ Andrew Cuomo: 57.4%
Harry Wilson: 40.8%

really think  Mary Taylor is going to win the field in Ohio?

I think Taylor will pull it off, because she received Kasich's endorsement, who is still very popular in OH.
No money, lower name ID and Kasich's endorsement all seems like a massive loss to me.

Kasich isn't as popular in Ohio as people think, I don't think Kasich could win a GOP primary here, his base isn't happy with him, and we've seen his approvals dip, even though he's buoyed with higher than average numbers among democrats.
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Spark498
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« Reply #35 on: June 21, 2017, 01:28:30 pm »
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Follow my gubernatorial predictions series on Youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCLinnmzSyoC5QhJUaqt5BaTi3HSuqcmy

Doing all of the races.
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Endorsements:

2017

Governor: Guadagno (R-NJ), Gillespie (R-VA)

2018

Governor: Wagner (R-PA)
Senate: Comstock (R-VA)
House: TBD

2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Irritable Moderate
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« Reply #36 on: June 21, 2017, 01:53:17 pm »
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New Jersey's county map is way off. Bigly.
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Spark498
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« Reply #37 on: June 21, 2017, 02:23:32 pm »
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So far:

MA: Gov. Charlie Baker def. Gonzalez (52-46%)
VT: Gov. Phil Scott def. Sue Minter (56-40%)
RI: Gov. Gina Raimondo def. Ken Block/Rep (61-39%)
CT: Mark Lauretti def. Lt. Gov. Nancy Wyman (51-47%)
ME: Mary Mayhew def. Terry Hayes and Janet Mills (48-34-17%)
NH: Gov. Chris Sununu def. Steve Marchand (48-47%)
PA: Gov. Tom Wolf def. Scott Wagner (51-48%)
NJ: Phil Murphy def. Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno (56-43%)
NY: Gov. Andrew Cuomo def. John Flanagan (52-45%)
VA: Ed Gillespie def. Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam (50-49%), upset pick
MI: Gretchen Whitmer def. Att Gen. Bill Schuette (57-43%)
IL: Chris Kennedy def. Gov. Bruce Rauner (54-46%)
FL: Gwen Graham def. Adam Putnam (52-47%)
MD: Gov. Larry Hogan def. Richard Madaleno (52-47%)
WI: Gov. Scott Walker def. Dem/Kathleen Vinehout (53-46%)
MN: Matt Dean def. Tim Walz (47-46%)
IA: Gov. Kim Reynolds def. Nate Boulton (55-42%)
SD: Att Gen. Marty Jackley def. Billie Sutton (56-43%)
NE: Gov. Pete Ricketts (75%, unopposed)
KS: Carl Brewer def. Kris Kobach (upset pick, Brownback did a poor job) (49-47%)
OK: Lt. Gov. Todd Lamb def. Constance Johnson (54-45%)
TX: Gov. Greg Abbott def. Wendy Davis (63-36%)
NM: Michelle Lujan Grisham def. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (55-44%)
AZ: Gov. Doug Ducey def. Steve Farley (54-43%)
CO: Cary Kennedy def. Victor Mitchell (53-44%)
NV: Att Gen. Adam Laxalt def. Aaron Ford (49-48%)
ID: Lt. Gov. Brad Little def. Troy Minton (87-13%)
WY: Sec of State Ed Murray def. Chris Rothfuss (59-39%)
OR: Gov. Kate Brown def. Dennis Richardson (58-42%)
CA: Gavin Newsom def. Antonio Villaraigosa (54-42%)
HI: Gov. David Ige def. Bob McDermott (59-40%)
AK: Mark Begich def. Gov. Bill Walker (upset, Walker not popular), (49-48%)


Upcoming-

AR: Gov. Asa Hutchinson def. Connor Eldridge
TN: Mae Beavers def. Karl Dean
GA: Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle def. Stacey Abrams
AL: Roy Moore/Rep def. Susan Bell Cobb
SC: Gov. Henry McMaster def. Vincent Sheheen/Dem




Begich win in AK, Graham win in FL, Narrow Gillespie win in VA, and Mayhew win in ME. GOP picks up CT due to Malloy being unpopular and VA. Dems pick up AK, IL, CO, MI, FL, KS.

Most uncertain about AK, VA, FL, CT, & KS. AK & VA are toss-up, CT is lean Dem, KS is lean R.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2017, 07:25:34 pm by Spark498 »Logged





Endorsements:

2017

Governor: Guadagno (R-NJ), Gillespie (R-VA)

2018

Governor: Wagner (R-PA)
Senate: Comstock (R-VA)
House: TBD

2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Bring Back the Big Tent
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« Reply #38 on: June 21, 2017, 04:00:21 pm »
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Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.
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Spark498
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« Reply #39 on: June 21, 2017, 04:07:38 pm »
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Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.
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Endorsements:

2017

Governor: Guadagno (R-NJ), Gillespie (R-VA)

2018

Governor: Wagner (R-PA)
Senate: Comstock (R-VA)
House: TBD

2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
Bring Back the Big Tent
Kamala
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« Reply #40 on: June 21, 2017, 04:11:21 pm »
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Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.

Well, there hasn't been a male representative from South Dakota in almost a decade and a half either.

I would say Noem is currently slightly favored because I think she's more dynamic than Jackley and most likely also has the support of Thune and his machine.
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Ancestral Prairie Democrat.

Everyone deserves a seat at the Democratic table, as long as they believe we can use government to make life better for everyone.
Spark498
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« Reply #41 on: June 21, 2017, 04:13:24 pm »
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Spark, what are your reasons for Jackley defeating Noem in the primaries?  I'm just interested to hear what the race looks like from the outside.

Simply because there has not yet been a female governor of South Dakota.

Well, there hasn't been a male representative from South Dakota in almost a decade and a half either.

I would say Noem is currently slightly favored because I think she's more dynamic than Jackley and most likely also has the support of Thune and his machine.

Either would win the race handily. I favor Jackley slightly for now.
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Endorsements:

2017

Governor: Guadagno (R-NJ), Gillespie (R-VA)

2018

Governor: Wagner (R-PA)
Senate: Comstock (R-VA)
House: TBD

2020

President: Trump

Political Spectrum:
Economic: +1.47 (Centrist)
Social: 0.14 (Libertarian)
Foreign Policy: 4.52 (Neo-Con)
Cultural: 5.91 (Conservative)
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« Reply #42 on: June 21, 2017, 08:26:54 pm »
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Why does Putnam lose by 5 to Graham? I could maybe see him doing that badly if the Dems nominate Morgan, but not against Graham.
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« Reply #43 on: June 21, 2017, 08:44:31 pm »
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Safe R: AR, ID, SD
Likely R: AL, OK, MA, SC, SD, TN, TX
Lean R: GA, MD, NE, OH, VT
Tilt R: AZ, IA, NV, NH, WI
Tossup: FL, IL, KS
Tilt D: CO, CT, RI
Lean D: ME, MI, PA, VA
Likely D: MN, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NJ, NY, OR

Likely ID: AK
37/50

D+4 to D+7, with D+16(Tossup, Tilt R, and GA, MD, NE, and VT flipping) being a huge ceiling.
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

Economic: 1.38
Social: -2.36
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Kamala
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« Reply #44 on: June 21, 2017, 08:46:57 pm »
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Safe R: AR, ID, SD
Likely R: AL, OK, MA, SC, SD, TN, TX
Lean R: GA, MD, NE, OH, VT
Tilt R: AZ, IA, NV, NH, WI
Tossup: FL, IL, KS
Tilt D: CO, CT, RI
Lean D: ME, MI, PA, VA
Likely D: MN, NM
Safe D: CA, HI, NJ, NY, OR

Likely ID: AK
37/50

D+4 to D+7, with D+16(Tossup, Tilt R, and GA, MD, NE, and VT flipping) being a huge ceiling.

You have South Dakota listed twice.
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« Reply #45 on: June 21, 2017, 08:53:58 pm »
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Then I'm missing a state. I should have 38.
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"America now is stumbling through the darkness of hatred and divisiveness. Our values, our principles, and our determination to succeed as a free and democratic people will give us a torch to light the way." - Gerald Ford

Economic: 1.38
Social: -2.36
azcactus
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« Reply #46 on: June 23, 2017, 07:01:18 am »
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May as well have a crack at this. Probably a few of these will be a touch bold, but what's life without eating a few hats?

2017
NJ: Phil Murphy
VA: Ralph Northam

2018
AL: Tommy Battle
AK: Bill Walker
AR: Asa Hutchinson
AZ: Greg Stanton*
CA: Gavin Newsom
CO: Jared Polis
CT: Dan Drew
FL: Gwen Graham*
GA: Brian Kemp
HI: Tulsi Gabbard**
IA: Kim Reynolds
ID: Brad Little
IL: Tom Dart*
KS: Joshua Svaty*
MA: Charlie Baker
MD: John Delaney*
ME: Susan Collins
MI: Gretchen Whitmer*
MN: Tim Walz
NE: Bob Krist**
NH: Steve Marchand*
NM: Javier Gonzales*
NV: Adam Laxalt
NY: Andrew Cuomo
OH: Mike DeWine
OK: Mick Cornett
OR: Kate Brown
PA: Tom Wolf
RI: Peter Kilmartin**
SC: Henry McMaster
SD: Marty Jackley
TN: Karl Dean*
TX: Greg Abbott
VT: Phil Scott
WI: Scott Walker
WY: Ed Murray

* Pickup
** Incumbent defeated in primary
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« Reply #47 on: June 23, 2017, 11:00:05 am »
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Here are my ratings for all races (including 2019 and 2020) just for the fun of it:

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xīngkěruž
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« Reply #48 on: June 24, 2017, 12:03:44 pm »
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Ratings:


Prediction:


D+7
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« Reply #49 on: June 24, 2017, 01:09:36 pm »
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AZ* P-David Garcia def T Ducey
FL P-Gwen Graham def T Adam Putnam
IL* S-Chris Kennedy def cc Bruce Rauner
KS S-Carl Brewer def T- Kris Kobach
MD*S Ben Jealous def cc Larry Hogan
MI  S-Gretchen Whitmerdef T Bill Schuette
NH* S-Steve Marchard def T- Sununu
NJ S-Phil Murphy def T- Kim Guadagno
NM S Michelle Grisham def T Aubrey Dunn Jr

D+10 with ME
« Last Edit: June 24, 2017, 03:08:49 pm by Da-Jon Cory Booker-4-Prez »Logged
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