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|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Florida 2018 Gubernatorial
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Poll
Question: Who would you vote for in the Florida gubernatorial election in 2018?
Andrew Gillum (D)   -5 (9.1%)
Gwen Graham (D)   -22 (40%)
Adam Putnam (R)   -8 (14.5%)
Rick Baker (R)   -1 (1.8%)
Mike Huckabee (R)   -2 (3.6%)
John Morgan (D)   -17 (30.9%)
Philip Levine (D)   -0 (0%)
Richard Corcoran (R)   -0 (0%)
Randy Wiseman (L)   -0 (0%)
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Total Voters: 55

Author Topic: Florida 2018 Gubernatorial  (Read 1042 times)
smoltchanov
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« Reply #50 on: March 22, 2017, 03:37:07 pm »
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Actually, comparing the the 2012 and 2014 exit polls, the groups that defected most from Democrats were 18-40 year old voters, eg Millennials, who are the most receptive and arguably most "demanding" of a progressive message. When you compare their support for Obama vs their support for Crist, there is a decently large difference. It's not like they liked Scott so much more - he only got 6% more among 18-29 year olds than Romney did, but it's that they defected en masse to a third party candidate and Crist only pulled 51 - 38 among 18-29 year olds. That is pretty bad for a Democrat in Florida. Millennials are crucial to a Democrat winning here. Among 65+ year olds, Crist got about what Obama got. They don't care if you're moderate or not. They treat all Democrats about the same.

So yes I think there is an argument that maybe a progressive candidate is needed to rally young people. So far it seems that old people in Florida give a moderate about as much support as they'd give a liberal, so it's not really going to hurt Democrats to put up someone like that. Their goals would have to be to get Obama-level numbers of young people, give or take 5% I suppose, and hold the line among baby boomers. But, none of this is to say there aren't limits, either. This is Florida after all, not Vermont.

http://edition.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/FL/governor/
http://edition.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/FL/president/


Are you sure that 6% that went to Scott over Romney were progressives? It's a strange way for progressive to go for ultraconservative (much more so then Romney) candidate like Scott...
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« Reply #51 on: March 22, 2017, 03:59:18 pm »

Are you sure that 6% that went to Scott over Romney were progressives? It's a strange way for progressive to go for ultraconservative (much more so then Romney) candidate like Scott...

Nope, I was just saying that based on the % Crist got among 18-40 year olds, and his margin among 65+ year olds, there is most likely a decent case to be made that a more liberal candidate could have better success in Florida and not really suffer with older voters, as older voters pretty much vote the same way regardless. Of course, "more liberal" is pretty broad - I think more economically liberal or populist even might be better, while not going going overboard on social issues.

I'm not a fan of the perpetual "what we need is a MORE liberal candidate!" line of thinking (even though I would like a liberal Tongue), but Democrats have a lot of room to improve among younger FL voters for sure, and what seems like little room left to fall among the older electorate.
« Last Edit: March 22, 2017, 04:03:40 pm by Virginia »Logged

smoltchanov
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« Reply #52 on: March 22, 2017, 11:05:44 pm »
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Are you sure that 6% that went to Scott over Romney were progressives? It's a strange way for progressive to go for ultraconservative (much more so then Romney) candidate like Scott...

Nope, I was just saying that based on the % Crist got among 18-40 year olds, and his margin among 65+ year olds, there is most likely a decent case to be made that a more liberal candidate could have better success in Florida and not really suffer with older voters, as older voters pretty much vote the same way regardless. Of course, "more liberal" is pretty broad - I think more economically liberal or populist even might be better, while not going going overboard on social issues.

I'm not a fan of the perpetual "what we need is a MORE liberal candidate!" line of thinking (even though I would like a liberal Tongue), but Democrats have a lot of room to improve among younger FL voters for sure, and what seems like little room left to fall among the older electorate.

Well, i, obviously, have nothing against testing such plausible hypothesis, though i have doubts about final success of this approach. Especially if progressives can't even win Democratic primary for years, as some people here state. We shall see..
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Raging moderate. Big fan of "mavericks" (in all parties) and big non-lover of "reliable foot soldiers" (in all parties as well). Very much "anti-tea party". Political Matrix - E: -0.26, S: -3.48. Like to collect bans on partisan sites (4-5 on DKE (+ SSP) and on RRH).
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