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| | |-+  If Walker is so unpopular, why was he re-elected?
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Author Topic: If Walker is so unpopular, why was he re-elected?  (Read 1154 times)
IndyRep
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« on: March 10, 2015, 02:21:56 pm »
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Walker trails Hillary by 9 points and even Warren and Biden in his own home state. He is viewed unfavorable by a majority of Wisconsinites. However, why on earth did he win in 2014 then?
And no, it was not because of low turnout. WI 2014 turnout was the highest for a midterm election in 50 years.
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bronz4141
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« Reply #1 on: March 10, 2015, 02:23:47 pm »
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Mary Burke was less charismatic than Walker is. She just didn't ran a great campaign. Barrett and Burke could'nt beat Walker. Feingold and Dave Obey could have in my opinion.
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« Reply #2 on: March 10, 2015, 02:52:51 pm »
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A few things:

He didn't win by a lot.  52% is not an overwhelming win, just a solid win in a competitive race.  And, turnout does matter.  Scott Walker got almost 200k fewer votes than Mitt Romney.  Presidential year turnout generally benefits Democrats.

The biggest thing is that people vote in a more partisan fashion with their cultural leanings for Presidential elections.  The Scott Walker-Obama voter seems like a non-politically engaged, but pragmatic person, white, suburban, not very religious.  They wouldn't vote Republican at the national level because of abortion, or foreign policy, or how the national GOP is seen.  But, they have more trust for their local politicians, of either party.  National elections come down to these big ideological cleavages, Republicans are anti-environment, Democrats are pro-abortion, Republicans hate poor people, Democrats want to raise taxes.  It becomes a culturally defined vote.

At the state level, people are more likely to vote personality or just see someone as "pragmatic."  If you're not thinking about these big cultural issues, a moderate person might just say, "hey, why not let this guy trim the fat from government a bit."  That's how Christie or Walker gets elected.  They get the votes of that kind of person.  But, it's much, much harder at the Presidential level where everything becomes more serious and polarized on cultural grounds.
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« Reply #3 on: March 10, 2015, 03:24:23 pm »
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Because he didn't say he was going to sign RTW.
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IndyRep
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« Reply #4 on: March 10, 2015, 03:30:02 pm »
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A few things:

He didn't win by a lot.  52% is not an overwhelming win, just a solid win in a competitive race.  And, turnout does matter.  Scott Walker got almost 200k fewer votes than Mitt Romney.  Presidential year turnout generally benefits Democrats.

The biggest thing is that people vote in a more partisan fashion with their cultural leanings for Presidential elections.  The Scott Walker-Obama voter seems like a non-politically engaged, but pragmatic person, white, suburban, not very religious.  They wouldn't vote Republican at the national level because of abortion, or foreign policy, or how the national GOP is seen.  But, they have more trust for their local politicians, of either party.  National elections come down to these big ideological cleavages, Republicans are anti-environment, Democrats are pro-abortion, Republicans hate poor people, Democrats want to raise taxes.  It becomes a culturally defined vote.

At the state level, people are more likely to vote personality or just see someone as "pragmatic."  If you're not thinking about these big cultural issues, a moderate person might just say, "hey, why not let this guy trim the fat from government a bit."  That's how Christie or Walker gets elected.  They get the votes of that kind of person.  But, it's much, much harder at the Presidential level where everything becomes more serious and polarized on cultural grounds.

I agree with that. Another reason may be that a majority of Wisconsinites identify themselves as "liberals" and only 10% (lol) as "(Very) conservative". That must also explain why he's trailing Dems badly.
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« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2015, 03:33:48 pm »
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I pretty much agree with all the posts in this thread so far, but I'll add one more: this was just a single poll. A single poll should never be taken as gospel.
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« Reply #6 on: March 10, 2015, 07:31:12 pm »
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It was a GOP wave election. Just like in my state, voters are having buyer's remorse about putting the GOP back in charge.

Maybe it was a good thing that voters saw this coming before the presidential election, that having a Republican dominated control of the government wasn't a good thing.

They seem more about cuts but not about pro growth policies like raising minimum wage and immigration reform. And he has signed more anti union collective bargining power. Which voters, especially have a hard time when it comes to teacher's union and pensions. Which hurts kids all over.
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« Reply #7 on: March 10, 2015, 10:03:28 pm »
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People have made pretty good points here, but I'll also point out that several governors less popular than Walker (Scott, LePage, Brownback, and Malloy to name a few) were also re-elected. It seems like being unpopular really doesn't equate to being doomed these days. If that were the case, Reid would've been toast several cycles ago.
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« Reply #8 on: March 11, 2015, 01:58:41 am »
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Because Democrats thought their bitching on Facebook was equivalent to a vote in the 2014 elections, presumably.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #9 on: March 11, 2015, 02:31:54 pm »
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Because Democrats thought their bitching on Facebook was equivalent to a vote in the 2014 elections, presumably.

Very true as well. I can think of a certain someone who would be in deep trouble if bitching on the internet translated into votes. Tongue
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« Reply #10 on: March 11, 2015, 10:01:51 pm »
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Because Democrats thought their bitching on Facebook was equivalent to a vote in the 2014 elections, presumably.

Very true as well. I can think of a certain someone who would be in deep trouble if bitching on the internet translated into votes. Tongue
Yeah, if Atlas dems were in charge of things, Teachout would have beaten Cuomo 95-5% in the primary.
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« Reply #11 on: March 13, 2015, 12:32:11 am »
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Because Democrats thought their bitching on Facebook was equivalent to a vote in the 2014 elections, presumably.

Very true as well. I can think of a certain someone who would be in deep trouble if bitching on the internet translated into votes. Tongue
Yeah, if Atlas dems were in charge of things, Teachout would have beaten Cuomo 95-5% in the primary.

Governor Teachout >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Governor Cuomo
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IceSpear
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« Reply #12 on: March 13, 2015, 03:35:19 am »
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Because Democrats thought their bitching on Facebook was equivalent to a vote in the 2014 elections, presumably.

Very true as well. I can think of a certain someone who would be in deep trouble if bitching on the internet translated into votes. Tongue
Yeah, if Atlas dems were in charge of things, Teachout would have beaten Cuomo 95-5% in the primary.

I was thinking of someone else, but that works too.

Speaking of that, you have to wonder why all these "progressive groups" spend all their time trying to force someone who clearly doesn't want to run for president into running for president rather than actually helping someone like Teachout who performed surprisingly well with no help whatsoever. Is it because of the leftist compulsion to be as impotent as possible?
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Justice TJ
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« Reply #13 on: March 13, 2015, 10:32:28 am »
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Walker wasn't that unpopular last year. The left hated him of course but they have for years. Walker managed to get a slim but consistent majority of midterm voters who believed he really would clean up the state's budget, in particular as it relates to public employees' benefits.

Since then Walker has done something to drag down his popularity but it isn't RTW, it's the UW cuts. RTW won't tick off anyone besides those who considered Act 10 an unforgivable offense, but the UW cuts affect an entirely different set of people. Cutting education funding is one of the quickest ways to get squishy moderates to turn on you. See Brown back for example (though Kansas is Republican enough to win without the moderates).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #14 on: March 13, 2015, 12:42:38 pm »
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He had big money behind him.

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SMilo
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« Reply #15 on: March 13, 2015, 12:54:29 pm »
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It's really funny - he seems to rile up the opposite base far more than his own. I wonder how that plays into it. Do independents get turned off by the other side's rage more than boring old Scott? Hard to portray a harmless generic-looking dude as a devil to a third party. Could be wrong since I don't know the numbers, but that's my theory. Obama seems to work in a similar way.
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« Reply #16 on: March 13, 2015, 09:38:46 pm »
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He won narrowly both times in a nominally blue state during strong GOP years. He isn't popular so much as polarizing with just enough support to eek out a majority. If he'd run in 2008 he would've lost handily. Even in 2012 he probably lost re-election.
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