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| | |-+  Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election
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Author Topic: Sacrificial lambs that ended up winning the election  (Read 1838 times)
Adam T
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« Reply #25 on: May 19, 2016, 06:51:06 am »
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Joseph Cao is the only answer.

Here in Canada, Bob Rae and many of the NDP candidates in Ontario in 1990, most Quebec NDP federal candidates in 2011 and some of the Alberta NDP candidates in 2015. 
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« Reply #26 on: May 19, 2016, 06:20:40 pm »
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Walt Minnick, the guy who won ID-01 in the 2008 wave.

It always makes me smile when I'm reminded that the Dems won a House seat in Idaho in 2008.
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« Reply #27 on: May 19, 2016, 07:14:41 pm »
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Heidi Heitkamp in 2012, it was a Presidential election year so a lot of democrats figured she was going to lose especially since ND is quite conservative but she pulled out a victory despite Obama losing there by 20%.



Joseph Cao is the only answer.

Here in Canada, Bob Rae and many of the NDP candidates in Ontario in 1990, most Quebec NDP federal candidates in 2011 and some of the Alberta NDP candidates in 2015.  

Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Quebec. Only got the spot because the guy who intended to contest in the riding bolted and she was a placeholder, she didnt even campaign there and didn't speak french at the time. And she won because of the orange wave in 2011.

Strangely enough even though the NDP was eaten up in Quebec last year by the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals she kept her spot with even a small swing to her.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2016, 07:47:39 pm by ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°) »Logged

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« Reply #28 on: May 23, 2016, 10:12:59 pm »
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Cresent Hardy is the obvious example. Ed Gillespie came close. Scott Brown is a good one.

But Brown and Gillespie weren't really sacrificial lambs, because both were nominated by electorates that were clearly prioritizing electability when they could have picked more extreme choices.

Joe Walsh in Illinois was a good example, though I wish he would have lost so Tammy Duckworth wouldn't have been able to win that seat after redistricting and because Walsh is a massive hack and HP.
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« Reply #29 on: May 24, 2016, 04:19:24 pm »
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   How about FDR for governor of New York in 1928.  IIRC Al Smith wanted him to run to bolster the Dem ticket.  FDR was still coming to grips with polio and really wasn't ready to run for public office yet, especially as 1928 was looking like a strong GOP year, but he ran anyway and narrowly won.
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« Reply #30 on: May 24, 2016, 04:27:11 pm »
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Heidi Heitkamp in 2012, it was a Presidential election year so a lot of democrats figured she was going to lose especially since ND is quite conservative but she pulled out a victory despite Obama losing there by 20%.



Joseph Cao is the only answer.

Here in Canada, Bob Rae and many of the NDP candidates in Ontario in 1990, most Quebec NDP federal candidates in 2011 and some of the Alberta NDP candidates in 2015.  

Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Quebec. Only got the spot because the guy who intended to contest in the riding bolted and she was a placeholder, she didnt even campaign there and didn't speak french at the time. And she won because of the orange wave in 2011.

Strangely enough even though the NDP was eaten up in Quebec last year by the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals she kept her spot with even a small swing to her.

Heitkamp's election record shows she was anything but a sacrificial lamb - a very strong recruit in a state that is pretty elastic.
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« Reply #31 on: May 26, 2016, 12:13:34 pm »
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Surely Kay Hagan, wasn't she an unknown State Senator before 2008?
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« Reply #32 on: May 26, 2016, 12:15:32 pm »
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Surely Kay Hagan, wasn't she an unknown State Senator before 2008?

Hagan was definitely an underdog, but I wouldn't really say she was a "sacrificial lamb." IIRC, there were signs early on that Dole could be vulnerable.
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« Reply #33 on: May 26, 2016, 12:18:21 pm »
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Surely Kay Hagan, wasn't she an unknown State Senator before 2008?
Yes.
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« Reply #34 on: May 26, 2016, 03:40:00 pm »
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Here's one I'm confused about - Larry Hogan in 2014. On one hand, nobody really thought he would win. But on the other, he ran a very strong race against Steny Hoyer a long time ago and has a family name in the state.
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« Reply #35 on: May 26, 2016, 03:51:20 pm »
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Guys, we really need to realize the distinction between an "underdog" and a "sacrificial lamb".
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« Reply #36 on: May 27, 2016, 01:20:16 pm »
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Guys, we really need to realize the distinction between an "underdog" and a "sacrificial lamb".

srsly
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« Reply #37 on: May 27, 2016, 06:20:31 pm »
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Joseph Cao is the prime example. What a strange saga... I guess Chris Coons would also fit the bill. He was expected to get demolished. Chris Smith also.
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« Reply #38 on: May 27, 2016, 07:11:21 pm »
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John Bel Edwards. David Vitter was a clear front runner early on, and then FFs Dardenne and Edwards utterly crushed him together.
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« Reply #39 on: May 31, 2016, 09:29:30 pm »
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One good example might be Abraham Lincoln in 1860.  Others are Richard Stallings in 1984, Scott DesJarlais, Roscoe Bartlett in 1992, Spiro Agnew in 1966, Tom Coburn in 1994, maybe David McKinley in 2010, Bill Orton in 1990, David Obey in 1969, and Pat Leahy in 1974.
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« Reply #40 on: May 31, 2016, 10:49:29 pm »
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Ruth Ellen Brosseau in Quebec. Only got the spot because the guy who intended to contest in the riding bolted and she was a placeholder, she didnt even campaign there and didn't speak french at the time. And she won because of the orange wave in 2011.

Strangely enough even though the NDP was eaten up in Quebec last year by the Bloc, Conservatives and Liberals she kept her spot with even a small swing to her.

That's because Brosseau is a badass.
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« Reply #41 on: May 31, 2016, 11:59:31 pm »
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William Proxmire in 1957.
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« Reply #42 on: June 01, 2016, 10:37:19 am »
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At the Presidential level, Bill Clinton in 1992 (recall how many candidates passed on taking along the "unbeatable" President Bush that year).
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« Reply #43 on: June 13, 2016, 09:55:46 pm »
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John Bel Edwards
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« Reply #44 on: June 13, 2016, 11:05:04 pm »
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Surely Kay Hagan, wasn't she an unknown State Senator before 2008?

Hagan was definitely an underdog, but I wouldn't really say she was a "sacrificial lamb." IIRC, there were signs early on that Dole could be vulnerable.

You could also say that about Joni Ernst. A previously low-profile state senator who ran in a race where she was initially the underdog. Both won by about the same margin, too. 
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« Reply #45 on: June 14, 2016, 02:25:55 am »
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Jim Webb in 2006?
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« Reply #46 on: June 14, 2016, 09:34:42 am »
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Blake Farenthold (R-TX). He was basically a trust fund baby who self-funded his 2010 campaign because the state/national party didn't seriously contest the district.

And since he won in a redistricting year, the state legislature promptly reconfigured his district into a safe R seat and he's not going anywhere unless he gets primaried for some reason.

I wouldn't say he was a sacrificial lamb, but he definitely got lucky. Makes me thank god the next redistricting year is in a presidential year.
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« Reply #47 on: June 14, 2016, 10:53:34 am »
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Did anyone say Tom Vilsack? Dude was behind 34 points in the first poll for the Iowa Governor's race before he won.
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