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| | |-+  Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?
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Ben Chandler   -4 (12.9%)
Andy Beshear   -19 (61.3%)
Allison Grimes   -2 (6.5%)
Adam Edelen   -1 (3.2%)
Jack Conway   -1 (3.2%)
Todd Hollenbach   -0 (0%)
Crit Luallen   -1 (3.2%)
Jerry Abramson   -0 (0%)
Daniel Mongiardo   -2 (6.5%)
Other   -1 (3.2%)
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Total Voters: 31

Author Topic: Who would be the strongest Kentucky Democrat in a statewide election?  (Read 572 times)
Committeeman Kingpoleon
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« on: August 20, 2016, 06:18:55 pm »
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Well?

Personally I think Beshear and Chandler would be the strongest possible candidates.
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Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #1 on: August 20, 2016, 06:24:18 pm »
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Andy Beshear. Kentucky is gone for any other democrat.
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Andrew from Cali
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« Reply #2 on: August 20, 2016, 07:59:23 pm »
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Andy Beshear. Kentucky is gone for any other democrat.

I'm not sure about that. In an open race probably (they definitely won't be able to win a Senate seat there anymore) but I think multiple Democrats could be able to defeat Bevin for reelection in 2019. Beshear would definitely be the strongest against Bevin and I think he could defeat him comfortably.
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« Reply #3 on: August 20, 2016, 08:09:10 pm »
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Lol, Beshear isn't going to beat Bevin, especially not if Hillary Clinton is president. And McConnell isn't going to lose either.
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« Reply #4 on: August 20, 2016, 09:28:56 pm »
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Lol, Beshear isn't going to beat Bevin, especially not if Hillary Clinton is president. And McConnell isn't going to lose either.
Agree, as usual. Bevin isn't losing, and Kentucky Democrats CANNOT win a Senate race. For downballot races, Andy Beshear and/or Ben Chandler.
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Andrew from Cali
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« Reply #5 on: August 20, 2016, 09:48:12 pm »
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Lol, Beshear isn't going to beat Bevin, especially not if Hillary Clinton is president. And McConnell isn't going to lose either.

McConnell will never be defeated, I completely agree about that. But Bevin is really unpopular and I think Beshear could buck the political trends in Kentucky and beat him.
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« Reply #6 on: August 20, 2016, 09:55:32 pm »
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The 2019 Kentucky governor's election will be primarily a referendum on Bevin.  If he does prove to be a disaster, any Democrat on the list could beat him with the right conditions, and I don't think it makes a big difference between 'em.
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« Reply #7 on: August 21, 2016, 01:14:46 am »
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None will have a prayer.
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« Reply #8 on: August 21, 2016, 01:37:06 am »
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Beshear might come slightly closer than Conway did, but Bevin won't lose, even if his approval ratings are in the 20s come 2019.
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« Reply #9 on: August 21, 2016, 03:29:30 am »
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Kentucky is gone for Democrats at the statewide level. They might win the odd statewide race here or there (AG or SoS, etc), but Governor and Senator are basically out of reach now. I do wonder how Governor Steve Beshear would have done if he had run against McConnell in 2014.
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« Reply #10 on: August 21, 2016, 08:56:17 am »
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Andy Beshear is likely the best statewide candidate, and I wouldn't be surprised if he runs against Bevin in 2019 if he's looking very unpopular at that point. I know Kentucky is a deep red state, but Beshear's father did win the Governorship a few years back and Beshear and Grimes both won in 2015. I think Bevin is favored for reelection at this point, but I wouldn't say he is completely safe like some are saying. Beshear and Grimes may not want to risk losing their current posts and may run for reelection though, that is certainly a possibility.

I agree about Mitch McConnell, though. Federal races are far different from state / local elections, and McConnell has quite the political machine set up, so I think he has his seat for as long as he wants it.
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« Reply #11 on: August 21, 2016, 07:58:22 pm »
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Louisville mayor Greg Fischer is also popular.
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« Reply #12 on: August 21, 2016, 09:58:47 pm »
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Mongiardo, assuming his base in eastern KY still votes for him.
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« Reply #13 on: August 23, 2016, 09:52:47 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.
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« Reply #14 on: August 23, 2016, 09:59:02 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.
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« Reply #15 on: August 23, 2016, 10:01:00 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

Arguing with Bandit is a waste of time. He still thinks Bevin and McConnell stole their elections.
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« Reply #16 on: August 23, 2016, 10:02:42 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.
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« Reply #17 on: August 23, 2016, 10:07:06 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

Almost everyone on this site (inculding myself) thought Conway was going to win. Election day comes, and Bevin not only wins, but he wins by so much that he dragged in the Republican Auditor candidate and nearly dragged in the Republican Attorney General and SOS candidates. It's very hard to see 2019 going well for KY Democrats. It's not as if the state is changing in a D direction demographically.

I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.

Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you with each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.
« Last Edit: August 23, 2016, 10:15:48 pm by Dwarven Dragon »Logged

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: August 23, 2016, 10:14:46 pm »
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Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

You have to see what's occurring on the ground to really understand Kentucky politics.
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« Reply #19 on: August 23, 2016, 10:17:20 pm »
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I have serious doubts about this, because Louisville and Lexington are growing, while the coalfields are losing population in droves.

Have you ever heard of a statewide majority where only two counties go for the winning candidate? Coal Country and the West are more gone for you which each passing day. Sorry, but it's not happening.

I'm sure it's happened in Illinois in the past. Of course, Louisville and Lexington are nowhere close to the share of the state that Chicago is for Illinois.

He's right though because unlike a state like say Arkansas, where the areas that are growing in population are Republican strongholds, Kentucky's growing regions are in Louisville, Lexington, and the Cincy suburbs. Unfortunately, it's gonna take some time for those regions to offset the losses in coal country.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: August 23, 2016, 10:19:48 pm »
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Plus, in many Republican counties, the county seat actually is a Democratic stronghold. I guess Mason County or Harrison County are like this.
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« Reply #21 on: August 24, 2016, 02:49:39 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

lol
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« Reply #22 on: August 24, 2016, 07:04:23 pm »
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Bevin is probably done for, but I think Edelen and Beshear are the strongest. Conway definitely is not.

lol
It's Bandit. Never argue with that troll. Ever. You can't win with him.
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