Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834235 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #175 on: August 19, 2008, 01:31:24 AM »

There's also a new SurveyUSA poll out that has Dorn up 43-32-9. Kind of shocking, especially since that's an 11 point jump for Dorn in less than a month.

I guess we'll see if it's right in 20 hours...
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Alcon
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« Reply #176 on: August 19, 2008, 02:07:49 AM »
« Edited: August 19, 2008, 02:16:12 AM by Alcon »

The Seattle Times's ridiculously un-random straw poll:

SPI
Dorn 57%
Bergeson 32%

Supreme Court
Fairhurst 66%
Bond 34%

Johnson 77%
Beecher 16%
Vulliet 7%

Secretary of State
Reed (R) 67%
Osgood (D) 25%
Montgomery (C) 5%

State Treasurer
Martin (R) 53%
McIntire (D) 28%
Sohn (D) 20%

State Auditor
Sonntag (D) 73%
McEntee (R) 21%
Freeman (C) 6%

Lt. Governor
Owen (D) 59%
McCraw (R) 21%
Wiest (R) 8%
Bell (D) 6%
Peck (C) 6%

For some reason, Governor and WA-8 only have like 10 votes apiece.  The rest have several hundred.  Anyway, take that as you will.

Edit: Which, since it has Larsen leading Bart 50-46, should be with a grain of salt.
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Meeker
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« Reply #177 on: August 19, 2008, 02:55:17 AM »

I wish I had time and data to do an analysis of every race, but alas I don't. So here is my prediction for my own LD. Note that this isn't what the final tally will be, but this is what the results tomorrow night this time should read. And I spent the past three hours or so trying to perfect this, so they better end up being pretty friggin' close.

Srail (D): 51.2% (10,100)
Carrell (R): 48.8% (9,700)

Kelley (D): 59.8% (12,000)
Dooley (R): 40.2% (8,000)

I can already feel the egg on my face...
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Meeker
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« Reply #178 on: August 19, 2008, 12:17:35 PM »

FWIW, looking at the data I've seen, Gregoire should win Pierce County. Narrowly.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #179 on: August 19, 2008, 05:48:18 PM »

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

Shouldn't Goldmark have an opponent?
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #180 on: August 19, 2008, 08:55:34 PM »

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

You think Burner will come second this round given the way primary turnout has been going this year? Especially with all the competitive contests on the Democratic side?
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CultureKing
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« Reply #181 on: August 19, 2008, 10:48:47 PM »

There are now results on the Secretary of State's homepage. Gregoire is doing very well, somehow she is ahead in Adams, Skamania and Spokane counties...

ChangMook Sohn looks to be headed towards defeat.
Sad
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Sam Spade
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« Reply #182 on: August 19, 2008, 11:50:53 PM »

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!
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CultureKing
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« Reply #183 on: August 19, 2008, 11:58:01 PM »

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

Counting is basically done for the night.
Sad

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Meeker
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« Reply #184 on: August 20, 2008, 12:24:13 AM »

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

The joys of absentee voting!

There will be another deluge around 10:30-11 PST. Pierce and King should be wrapped up by midnight to 3 AM.

If I have time I'll try to explain why it takes so long...
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bgwah
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« Reply #185 on: August 20, 2008, 01:06:10 AM »

Early results map:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0
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Meeker
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« Reply #186 on: August 20, 2008, 01:11:32 AM »
« Edited: August 20, 2008, 01:14:42 AM by PPTE Meeker »

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

Or maybe Anderson being behind. Makes no sense.
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Alcon
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« Reply #187 on: August 20, 2008, 01:18:06 AM »

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

My mind is still being blown.  Seriously, who did the Republicans vote for in that race?  Either Democratic turnout was astronomically above the 63-35 (or so) split that's standard for us, or Flannigan drained a huge number of votes from Woodard.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #188 on: August 20, 2008, 01:18:52 AM »


That map is beautiful for Gregoire.
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bgwah
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« Reply #189 on: August 20, 2008, 01:32:32 AM »

^ Yeah, winning the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest counties in the state (that she lost in 2004) isn't a bad sign---but who knows what will happen come November. We've never had a primary like this so we can't really draw any parallels. But if she wins Pierce and Snohomish in the general, she's almost definitely won the election.

In other news, incumbent Republican Glenn Anderson is narrowly behind his Democratic opponent for State Representative in the 5th legislative district (mine!). Anderson didn't even get a Democratic opponent in 2006. It would make me very happy if we finally had a Democratic legislator. We're pretty much the only triple Republican district left in suburban Seattle, I think--at least in King County. It's pretty awful knowing you're from the district that spawned Dino the Despicable. Sad
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Meeker
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« Reply #190 on: August 20, 2008, 01:53:02 AM »

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?
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Alcon
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« Reply #191 on: August 20, 2008, 01:55:31 AM »

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.
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Meeker
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« Reply #192 on: August 20, 2008, 01:59:28 AM »

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

But he also does well in other parts of Eastern Washington as well... maybe he ran some sort of insurgent regional campaign.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.

We are also currently laughing our heads off.
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bgwah
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« Reply #193 on: August 20, 2008, 02:01:40 AM »

^ I'd say there's about a 90% chance Whitman County just messed up. Their elections are run by absolute retards.
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Meeker
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« Reply #194 on: August 20, 2008, 02:09:46 AM »

While we wait, something fun I learned tonight: If you hang out at the Auditor's office when they release results, McCarthy comes out and personally gives them to you.
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Meeker
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« Reply #195 on: August 20, 2008, 02:13:23 AM »

King and Pierce are the only counties that will be releasing results for the rest of the night.
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ottermax
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« Reply #196 on: August 20, 2008, 02:44:40 AM »

Turnout is frighteningly horrible in King and Pierce unless that does not count the uncounted ballots.
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ottermax
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« Reply #197 on: August 20, 2008, 02:56:46 AM »

I'm so dismayed by ChangMook Sohn's loss.

But Gregoire is doing spectacularly and looks like she will win in Nov. with the help of higher turnout particularly in King County.

Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

Disappointment with Burner, however when you add her total with the other two Democrats, she wins. I suspect that the GE will help Reichert, but it is a presidential year, so the Obama-effect may cancel out the Reichert-Green River Sheriff effect.

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bgwah
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« Reply #198 on: August 20, 2008, 03:17:05 AM »

I was expecting McIntire to win, but I thought it would at least be relatively close... His nearly 30 point loss is very surprising.
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Meeker
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« Reply #199 on: August 20, 2008, 12:32:41 PM »

Did anyone notice the rather high numbers for the Constitution party? 6.52% for SOS!?

That was another very odd thing. The Constitution Party got 3% in one statewide race and more than 6% in two others. Ellen Craswell's revenge?
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