Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 02:44:50 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 ... 252
Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834182 times)
HardRCafé
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,364
Italy
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #200 on: August 20, 2008, 12:44:39 PM »

Odd?  You have a safe Republican incumbent Republicans hate.  This is simply them having a temper tantrum.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #201 on: August 20, 2008, 01:14:09 PM »

Odd?  You have a safe Republican incumbent Republicans hate.  This is simply them having a temper tantrum.

... which doesn't explain the State Auditor or Lt. Governor results.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #202 on: August 20, 2008, 04:22:06 PM »

Whitman County has been fixed. Aiken is now getting 2%, with Rossi at 48 and Gregoire at 45. How the hell do the people running their elections let this sh*t slip by? There is little doubt in my mind that they have the worst elections department in the state. Probably also the most corrupt--but whatever.

Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

Cheryl Crist actually came sort of close to making it to the general. It would've been funny if Western Washington's most Republican district had two Democrats in the general... Perhaps if there were just one more Republican running! Oh well.

Disappointing numbers for Burner.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #203 on: August 20, 2008, 04:24:57 PM »

Also interesting that a "No Party Preference" person got 10% for Insurance Commissioner.

He's part of the Spokane County Republican establishment--no idea why he ran as an indy.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #204 on: August 20, 2008, 05:15:02 PM »

Is the ballot counting for the primary going to last another two weeks?
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #205 on: August 20, 2008, 05:40:43 PM »

Legislative races that will not be D v. R.

LD3 Se  D v I (I had 22%)
LD7 R1  R v R (5 R's in primary)
LD8 R2  R v R (2 R's in primary)
LD11 Se D v D (3 D's in primary)
LD12 R2 R v R (1 R in primary vs. WI R)
LD22 Se D v D (2 D's in primary)
LD27 R2 D v D (2 D's, 2 R's in primary, D vote was 70-75% for other positions)
LD36 R1 D v D (2 D's, 1 R in primary, D voter was 82% for other position)
LD37 R2 D v L  (D v. L in primary, L was 11%)
LD38 R1 D v I  (D v. I in primary, I was 41%)
LD41 R2 D v G (D v. G in primary, G was 19%; R for Senate had 37%)
LD46 R1 D v D (2 D's vs 1 R in primary, 82% D for other position)
LD49 R2 D v I  (D v. I in primary, I was 35%)

The positions where two candidates from the same major party, were either not contested by the other party, or were in districts that were overwhelmingly one-sided (75%+ for one party).

The 5 positions where it is D vs. non-R, were all positions where there was no R candidate.  Two of the independents appear to have credible support.

There are two posititions where a R filed as a write-in candidate and will apparently qualify for the general election ballot.

LD28 R2 D v R (R WI v unopposed D)
LD49 Se D v R (R WI v unopposed D)

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

LD1 R1  D v WI
LD1 R2  D v WI
LD7 R2  R v WI
LD9 Se  R v WI
LD12 Se R v WI
LD12 R1 R v WI
LD13 R1 R v WI
LD13 R2 R v WI
LD14 Se R v WI
LD16 Se R v WI
LD19 Se D v WI
LD19 R1 D v WI
LD19 R2 D v WI
LD22 R1 D v WI
LD24 Se D v WI
LD32 R2 D v WI
LD34 Se D v WI
LD34 R1 D v WI
LD34 R2 D v WI
LD37 R1 D v WI
LD38 R2 D v WI
LD40 R1 D v WI
LD41 R2 D v WI
LD43 R1 D v WI
Logged
jimrtex
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,828
Marshall Islands


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #206 on: August 20, 2008, 06:01:33 PM »

Is the ballot counting for the primary going to last another two weeks?
Yes.

Voter Turnout

You will notice that for most larger counties, the next update is at the end of the day on Wednesday.  For smaller counties, it looks like they will wait until Friday.  One outlier is Columbia County which looks like they will wait for the two week period to be finished before they count again.

Voters in King County appear to be favoring non-partisan elections without partisan labels, over the alternative of non-partisan elections with partisan labels for county offices.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #207 on: August 20, 2008, 06:19:40 PM »

Oh geez.  Thanks.  Yet another reminder of how much I despise Washington - when New Mexico does this it's funny, when Washington does it, it's annoying...
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #208 on: August 20, 2008, 06:40:47 PM »

You will notice that for most larger counties, the next update is at the end of the day on Wednesday.  For smaller counties, it looks like they will wait until Friday.  One outlier is Columbia County which looks like they will wait for the two week period to be finished before they count again.

Important note:  Don't trust those estimates, especially "next count" or "ballots left to count."  King County's first projection (based on those numbers) was turnout of 18%--and they haven't updated "ballots left to count" since.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #209 on: August 20, 2008, 06:58:38 PM »

Yea, the "Ballots left to count" number is pulled out of their ass. They have no idea how many they're going to get in the mail Hence why respectable counties, such as Pierce, wait much longer before providing estimates.

But for all the complaining about this taking so long, the final results aren't going differ by more than a percent or two from the first round released at 8:30 last night.

So it takes much longer to get a final number, but you know the winnner much quicker. Unless it's a really, really close race.
Logged
Bacon King
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,820
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.63, S: -9.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #210 on: August 20, 2008, 08:55:20 PM »

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

There could be a good bit of potential hilarity in those districts. The top write-in could be anyone from Mickey Mouse to Dino Rossi to Oprah.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #211 on: August 20, 2008, 10:29:17 PM »

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Logged
frihetsivrare
Volksliberalist
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 613


Political Matrix
E: 4.00, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #212 on: August 20, 2008, 11:22:00 PM »

This isn´t surprising, but I voted for only one winner, Doug Ericksen for State House.  I was very impressed with how the Constitution Party did, 3.35%, 6.45% and 6.73%. 

This may have already been stated, but in Legislative district 7 every candidate prefers the Republican Party or GOP Party.  One position had five candidates.  One district in Seattle had all Democratic candidates for one posititon, but one from each major party for the other.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #213 on: August 21, 2008, 01:02:10 AM »

Could someone do a map for the SPI race?
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #214 on: August 21, 2008, 01:23:46 AM »

Could someone do a map for the SPI race?

Pretty darn boring.  Like the last time, Bergeson won strongly everywhere, except where there's a lot of insurgent voting.  And for some reason, the Wenatchee metro, which hated her in 2004 too.

I can make a map, but were you looking for a data upload?  Probably a lot more interesting.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #215 on: August 21, 2008, 01:49:08 AM »

There isn't an option to upload SPI... Sad

Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #216 on: August 21, 2008, 02:02:18 AM »

I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #217 on: August 21, 2008, 02:17:49 AM »
« Edited: August 21, 2008, 02:19:33 AM by Alcon »

I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?


I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.
Logged
ottermax
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,788
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #218 on: August 21, 2008, 02:23:17 AM »

I just wanted to see where Dorn's strongest areas were, and reading the county list wasn't too easy to visualize.

My suspicions were that he did well in the East and in the Southwest. I could be very wrong though.

Haven't memorized the county outlines and general metro areas?  Shameful!  (and good for your health.)

Dorn was competitive in the Tri-Cities (I didn't notice that he won Benton County, which is Kennewick and Richland); and the Wenatchee area.  He also did rather well in the suburbs, but not "ring cities" like Bremerton and Tacoma, which is interesting but seems to fit.

Beyond that, Bergeson's performance was kind of weird.  She ran pretty mediocre in the Seattle metro (see: suburbs?), but did really well in theoretically WASL-hostile areas like the San Juan Islands and Port Townsend.  She did OK in areas where the insurgency/Constitution vote was high this year (the Northeastern forestlands); politically "traditionalistic" areas (the coast and the Cowlitz); and in (non-suburban) conservative areas less prone to insurgency (the rural East counties).

If I had to write a litmus test for results, with the highest level being county, I'd say the basic formula for high Dorn performance was a "yes" answer to this pair of questions:

Does the public school system need fixing?
If so, does it need a drastic change?


I also get the impression that something local is going on in Wenatchee.  It stood out less this year, but in 2004, it was just too intense for it to just be the above criteria.

I met someone from Wenatchee and the schools there are in need of drastic change especially since they are about one-third Spanish speaking. Yakima is similar.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #219 on: August 21, 2008, 03:26:12 AM »
« Edited: August 21, 2008, 03:49:19 AM by bgwah »

Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0
Logged
CultureKing
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #220 on: August 21, 2008, 04:53:41 AM »

Some interesting county results for Congressional races:

ADAMS COUNTY
75.59% McMorris Rodgers (R)
7.52% Erickson (R)
6.90% Mays (D)
5.72% Lampert (D)
2.62% Yearout (C)
1.66% (L)

COWLITZ COUNTY
52.44% Baird (D)
17.12% Crist (D)
15.60% Delavar (R)
14.84% Webb (R)

Basically, Cowlitz County is awesome and Adams is reminding us that nobody is f**king with their reputation as the worst county in Washington.


ALSO:
State Treasurer:

https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=8&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

Whoot! Go Thurston for giving Sohn his largest share of the vote!!
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #221 on: August 21, 2008, 10:59:22 PM »

Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #222 on: August 21, 2008, 11:08:41 PM »

Yea, the Republicans statewide had a really good day in absentee returns. A lot of the legislative candidates gained a point or two as well.

Perhaps a bunch of military ballots arrived.
Logged
CultureKing
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,249
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #223 on: August 21, 2008, 11:14:37 PM »

Dino the Despicable is now ahead in Cowlitz, Clark, Spokane, and Skamania.

Did late returns (or ballots just arriving in the mail) favor Rossi then?
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #224 on: August 21, 2008, 11:36:27 PM »
« Edited: August 21, 2008, 11:39:46 PM by bgwah »

^ I guess so. Though Gregoire is still doing pretty well in Snohomish and Pierce. She also has a solid lead in Grays Harbor, which she narrowly lost in 2004. This makes me feel a little bit better about November. It would be very sad to see the Despicable One mercilessly rape and murder our state every day for four years. Sad

Also, I made a map of the Congressional races. Red is Democrat/Green and blue is Republican/Constitution. Independents and Libertarians were excluded.



Reichert narrowly "won" the primary with 48%. Democrats combined beat the only Republican. Of course, this was the case in 2006 as well. Still, Darcy should probably do at least as well as she did in 2006 I think, if these primaries are any indicator... hard to tell...
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 4 5 6 7 8 [9] 10 11 12 13 14 ... 252  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.06 seconds with 11 queries.