Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834178 times)
Alcon
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« Reply #225 on: August 21, 2008, 11:37:28 PM »

Later absentee ballots tend to be more Republican, at least for the last few years.

It also, of course, depends on how much of a given day's load is King County.  But there are obvious gains here.

Gregoire losing Cowlitz is weird, especially since Goldmark and Ladenburg both won it.  Speaking of that, what's with Ladenburg in SW Wash. in general?  I'd say media markets, but um, were there actually advertisements for this all?
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CultureKing
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« Reply #226 on: August 21, 2008, 11:48:15 PM »

Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.
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Meeker
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« Reply #227 on: August 21, 2008, 11:56:48 PM »

Anyone have any info or ideas about the two remaining candidates for state treasurer? I really liked Sohn but I am not so sure about the other two.

The republican was endorsed by Murhpy and I really respected him and meanwhile McIntire... well I just don't know a ton about him.

McIntire is one of the smartest members of the State House and really knows economic issues. From speaking to him he also really, really wants to win. Both he and Martin would be excellent at the job, so you can't really go wrong.

The peak of Martin's political career will be State Treasurer. He just happens to have a profession that requires election. McIntire could potentially go higher. He's a politician who has an interest in doing the job of State Treasurer and would be really good at it.

I hope that makes sense.
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ottermax
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« Reply #228 on: August 22, 2008, 01:16:10 AM »

Gregoire is still leading in many of the counties she lost in Western WA and Asotin. Cowlitz is odd though...

I'm still rooting for Burner. I think I'll join her campaign. She needs help and I'll be happy to provide it.
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bgwah
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« Reply #229 on: August 22, 2008, 02:23:11 AM »

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...
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Alcon
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« Reply #230 on: August 22, 2008, 02:29:08 AM »

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? Tongue
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Meeker
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« Reply #231 on: August 22, 2008, 02:31:31 AM »

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? Tongue

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.
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bgwah
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« Reply #232 on: August 22, 2008, 02:38:35 AM »

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? Tongue

No, silly, you know me better than that. It's the fact that Martin has a "Prefers Republican Party" by his name and his Democratic opponent isn't Osgood-awful. Smiley
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ottermax
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« Reply #233 on: August 22, 2008, 02:46:20 AM »

Martin looks like he will win though.
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Alcon
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« Reply #234 on: August 22, 2008, 03:04:19 AM »

I'm definitely voting for McIntire in the general. Would've been nice to have Sohn, but McIntire will do...

What convinced you, the (D) next to his name, or the "Prefers Democratic Party" in the primary? Tongue

The fact that Allan Martin is Dino Rossi's sex kitten.

I'm afraid to ask just in case that isn't a metaphor.
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bgwah
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« Reply #235 on: August 23, 2008, 01:17:53 AM »

Here are the current swing by county numbers in excel and map form.

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Meeker
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« Reply #236 on: August 23, 2008, 03:02:30 AM »

Hecht's percentage has consistently gone down every day, so I did some quick math to figure out what it would take for Armijo to pull off a win. He'd need 57% of the remaining vote, AKA he can't win.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #237 on: August 24, 2008, 06:42:16 PM »

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.
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bgwah
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« Reply #238 on: August 24, 2008, 07:12:22 PM »

Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting. Sad

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #239 on: August 24, 2008, 07:36:19 PM »

Geez, I thought people would think my swing data & map were interesting. Sad

Also, if we adjust the turn-out numbers to account for the low turn-out in places like King County to resemble those from 2004, then Gregoire got about 52.5% to Rossi's 47.5%. Of course, that excludes that 8 or 9% of people who voted for the other random candidates. But who knows what the hell is going to happen with them...

I think it is interesting.  It appears that Gregoire has improved her standing in conservative eastern and southwestern Washington, but was undone by low turnout in King County.  They should make a point to work on that for the general.
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Meeker
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« Reply #240 on: August 26, 2008, 11:47:21 PM »

There are 24 positions where there was a single unopposed candidate.  It is my interpretation of Washington statutes that all ballots not cast for the single candidate will have to be examined for write-ins, with the 2nd place finisher placed on the general election ballot.

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.

Can you rephrase that? I don't quite understand what you're referencing.

Regardless of which of us is technically legal correct however, in speaking with the elections officials over the past week I can tell you that they're using my interpretation.
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bgwah
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« Reply #241 on: August 27, 2008, 02:56:48 PM »
« Edited: August 27, 2008, 03:06:16 PM by bgwah »

Skagit has fallen to the dark side.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #242 on: August 29, 2008, 08:52:20 PM »

No. State law says that you must receive 1% of the primary vote in order to advance to the general election, thus avoiding a situation like this.
Washington law also says that if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is sufficient to change a result, that they be counted.  If there is a single candidate on the primary ballot, it is quite likely that the number of undervotes is greater than 1%.
Can you rephrase that? I don't quite understand what you're referencing.
There is a fundamental right to cast a write-in vote.  If a machine-counted ballot does not indicate a choice, then the presumption should be that it is a possible write-in vote.  In a race where there is only a single candidate on the ballot, there are likely to be 20 to 30% of the ballots with no choice indicated. 

See for example LD1 where the uncontested House races had about 70% of the vote cast in the contested Senate race.   While many of about 8,000 voters will simply have skipped the House races, the presumption should be that every one of the ballots has a write-in vote.  Washington law requires possible write-in votes to be tallied if it would have an effect on the outcome.  If there is a person who receives 1% of the vote, then they would be placed on the general election ballot.  This would be a change in the outcome.  1% is only about 200 votes.
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Alcon
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« Reply #243 on: August 29, 2008, 09:52:36 PM »

Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.
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Meeker
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« Reply #244 on: August 29, 2008, 11:07:15 PM »

Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

^^^
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jimrtex
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« Reply #245 on: August 31, 2008, 11:26:23 AM »

Why would an undervote be presumed to be a write-in?  The machine automatically distinguishes those from write-ins.

[X] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________

[X] Rossi
[X] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[X] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in Rossi                   

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________
Rossi for Governor

Are all valid Rossi votes.  In a machine tally, only the first will be counted.  The 2nd will be counted as an overvote, the 3rd as a write-in vote.  The 4th and 5th will be counted as undervotes.

Washington law is explicit that if the total number of machine-tallied write-in votes, undervotes, and overvotes for an on-ballot candidate could change the outcome of an election, that the ballots be hand counted, since it is possible that all were marked in some way that was a valid vote.

In the case of a person who has not filed for the offfice, the following are valid votes (assuming they can figure out who Alcon is).

[  ] Rossi
[X] Write-in Alcon                     

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in Alcon                     

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________
Alcon for Governor

None of these can be machine-tallied.  Again, Washington law says that they be hand counted if it is possible that they would change the outcome.  It doesn't matter that most undervotes are probably of the form:

[  ] Rossi
[  ] Write-in ______________

The law presumes the possibility that they are all valid votes.
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Meeker
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« Reply #246 on: August 31, 2008, 12:36:29 PM »

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.

The only time a ballot is counted as an undervote is if you literally did not make any mark or indication in regards to that race.
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Alcon
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« Reply #247 on: August 31, 2008, 12:58:15 PM »

Ah, interesting, thanks Smiley

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks, but maybe law still demands that the undercounts be checked?
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Meeker
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« Reply #248 on: August 31, 2008, 01:04:54 PM »

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
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bgwah
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« Reply #249 on: September 04, 2008, 05:30:47 PM »

Walla Walla is the only county with ballots left to count. The rest have their final results.

King County is going to release precinct results tomorrow!! Of course, I'll probably be in Rossiland, which is sad, but I'm used to it. Sad
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