Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834149 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #275 on: September 07, 2008, 07:26:16 PM »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #276 on: September 07, 2008, 08:28:04 PM »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

Ewww... Pam Roach....
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bgwah
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« Reply #277 on: September 08, 2008, 01:56:07 AM »

Insurance Commissioner: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?f=0&fips=53&elect=6&off=13&year=2008



Not terribly interest. Kreidler always seems to get about 54%. Adams has been his opponent before, maybe even twice...
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Meeker
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« Reply #278 on: September 08, 2008, 02:42:32 AM »

Kreidler's sort of a weird enigma. I've never met anyone who's ever seen him, and he never has any campaign material.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #279 on: September 08, 2008, 03:03:56 AM »
« Edited: September 08, 2008, 03:09:24 AM by Ogre Mage »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

LOL at Pam Roach running for Governor.  I would watch just for the sheer entertainment value.  Anyone who touches her roses is in for it!

My fear is that Sonntag/Inslee/Smith/Chopp/Sims et. al. will bloody one another up during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary as McKenna glides uncontested through the Republican Primary and then to victory in the general.
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Meeker
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« Reply #280 on: September 08, 2008, 03:34:05 AM »

^ Yes, McKenna is more likely to be Washington's next Republican Governor than Rossi. I've felt that way for a while. But I'm fairly certain he would lose against Sonntag. That would be a great way to get rid of McKenna. Smiley

Inslee would be an okay candidate, though I would rather not run candidates from Seattle/Bainbridge when possible... As for Chopp, I hope you're kidding. I kind of doubt the Republicans will ever regain the legislature. At least not for decades. He should just be happing being in control of the House for as long as he wants. Tongue

The Chopp thing I've only heard once, but it was from a pretty good source. Inslee has been planning his ascension for years now though.

Maybe Pam Roach can run again.

LOL at Pam Roach running for Governor.  I would watch just for the sheer entertainment value.  Anyone who touches her roses is in for it!

My fear is that Sonntag/Inslee/Smith/Chopp/Sims et. al. will bloody one another up during the Democratic Gubernatorial Primary as McKenna glides uncontested through the Republican Primary and then to victory in the general.


Even worse than that would be the Democrats bloodying each other up and splitting the vote so badly that McKenna and another relatively sane Republican can both sneak through to the general election.

I suppose on the plus side that would be the end of the Top-Two forever..
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bgwah
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« Reply #281 on: September 08, 2008, 03:47:12 AM »

^ I would say there is about a 0.5% chance of McKenna getting serious opposition within the primary from another Republican.

As for the rest of that scenario... Smith, too? Ahh. I like him, but I kind of doubt he would take on those guys... I still don't believe Chopp will run. I can't imagine a Democratic candidate who would do worse statewide. Sims would also be an almost guaranteed loss as well.
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Meeker
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« Reply #282 on: September 08, 2008, 03:57:21 AM »

Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

And Smith isn't going to run for statewide office while there's still a Democratic majority in DC - it's also why he decided not to run for AG or Pierce County Executive this year.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #283 on: September 08, 2008, 11:36:47 AM »

Kreidler's sort of a weird enigma. I've never met anyone who's ever seen him, and he never has any campaign material.

I saw him. Once.

He's a pretty quiet person really the only reason any of us knew who he was owned to him being introduced to everyone.
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bgwah
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« Reply #284 on: September 08, 2008, 04:11:19 PM »

Commissioner of Public Lands: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=10&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Goldmark does well in parts of Eastern Washington (his home county of Okanogan, as well as Spokane and Whitman counties), but does very poorly in traditionally Democratic parts of Western Washington. If Goldmark wants to win he's gonna need to improve his numbers in the South Sound and coastal counties.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #285 on: September 08, 2008, 10:39:37 PM »

Commissioner of Public Lands: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=10&elect=6&fips=53&f=0



Goldmark does well in parts of Eastern Washington (his home county of Okanogan, as well as Spokane and Whitman counties), but does very poorly in traditionally Democratic parts of Western Washington. If Goldmark wants to win he's gonna need to improve his numbers in the South Sound and coastal counties.

Thurston will likely stay for Sutherland in the general, because of our dependence on the government for the local economy people tend to back incumbents on the state-wide level.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #286 on: September 09, 2008, 01:26:45 AM »

I'd been told that the Tabulator machine separates out any ballots with extraneous marks

That's correct, but at that point they've already been through a hand check and any ballots with potential problems should have been dealt with. There are a very, very small amount that are rejected by the machines, but those are just dealt with by having a substitute ballot sent in its place.
King County reported roughly 2 to 3% write-ins in every legislative race where there was only candidate on the ballot.


Yes, however, they only count who those write-ins were for if someone has filed a Declaration of Write-In candidacy or if it is clear to election workers that a candidate may make the general election ballot.
RCW 29A.24.311 is clear that write-in votes are valid for undeclared candidates, so long as the office being sought can be determined from the ballot.

RCW 29A.60.021 (1) Says that a write-in vote for an undeclared write-in candidate in a general election are not valid if the candidate had lost the primary either as an on-ballot or a declared write-in candidate.  But this is a meaningless restriction, unless write-in votes for other undeclared write-in candidates are valid.

RCW 29A.60.021 (4) says that write-in votes are to be tallied if the number of undervotes and write-in votes is greater than that of an apparent qualified nominee.  While one could literally interpret this to mean that write-in votes don't have to be counted unless it appeared that there were two on-ballot canidates it would produce the following perverse outcome:

Candidate A and B are on the ballot.  Candidate C is not on the ballot.

Candidate A gets 96% of the vote.  Candidate B gets 1% of the vote.   There are 2% write-in votes.  These are examined and it is found that Candidate C has been nominated.

Candidate A gets 96% of the vote.  Candidate B gets 0.5% of the vote.   There are 3% write-in votes.  Since Candidate B does not have 1% of the vote he is not nominated, and therefore for the write-in votes are not tallied.
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Meeker
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« Reply #287 on: September 09, 2008, 01:31:38 AM »

Look, dude, you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #288 on: September 09, 2008, 01:42:50 AM »

All ballots are looked at in person before being sent through a machine to avoid a situation like this. There are tables and tables of workers who look at ballots that have been filled out incorrectly and fill out substitute ballots that can be read by the counting machines.
In other words, there is no point whatsoever to machine counting.
Statewide Standards on What is a Vote (PDF file)
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jimrtex
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« Reply #289 on: September 09, 2008, 01:46:48 AM »

you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.
It doesn't matter whether the counties interpret ballots in a manner that is consistent between counties and complies with the law?
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Meeker
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« Reply #290 on: September 09, 2008, 01:51:18 AM »

you can quote the RCW's until the cows come home, but I'm telling you right now that the way the counties are interpreting the laws is the way I'm describing them. And that's all that really matters.
It doesn't matter whether the counties interpret ballots in a manner that is consistent between counties and complies with the law?

It doesn't matter for practical purposes of the discussion we were having. Maybe they should do it a certain way, but that wasn't my point. My point is that they're doing it the way that I've described, so what they should be doing isn't significant to analyzing what is actually happening.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #291 on: September 09, 2008, 02:35:20 AM »

Yea, I'm pretty sure the field would clear for McKenna rather quickly as well, but never underestimate the clusterf**ck that is the WSRP.

And Smith isn't going to run for statewide office while there's still a Democratic majority in DC - it's also why he decided not to run for AG or Pierce County Executive this year.

I heard that Smith is tired of traveling to D.C.  Admittedly, that was pre-2006 elections.  In any case, my concerns still stand.  The Dems have a pretty deep bench for Governor once Gregoire leaves, but that isn't necessarily a good thing given the fractious nature of the party.  There will be a scramble for the Democratic nomination.  Hopefully there won't be a major schism afterward. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #292 on: September 09, 2008, 05:57:17 PM »

Any Democrat/anti-Republican who doesn't support Sonntag (especially if the Republican is McKenna) is utterly insane.
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bgwah
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« Reply #293 on: September 16, 2008, 12:58:05 AM »

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2008181318_webbiaw16.html

lol Republicans
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Meeker
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« Reply #294 on: September 24, 2008, 01:02:01 AM »

http://www.king5.com/news/specials/politics/stories/NW_092308POB_rossi_republican_label_lawsuit_TP.a6d625f6.html

Idiots
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bgwah
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« Reply #295 on: September 25, 2008, 04:54:07 AM »

^ lol! Like any WA party chairman, Pelz is just another loser who couldn't get elected to a real office. Okay, he was on the county council but he lost his re-election effort in a primary etc etc who cares.

Did anybody watch the debate? They're both pretty boring people.


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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #296 on: September 26, 2008, 12:34:32 AM »
« Edited: September 26, 2008, 01:01:51 AM by Ogre Mage »

Did anybody watch the debate? They're both pretty boring people.

I did.  The level of hostility between the candidates was notable but not surprising.  They started attacking one another in their opening statements, not waiting for the question and answer period.

A good moment for Rossi and a bad one for Gregoire came on crime.  Gregoire tried to suggest Rossi had never done anything about crime.  He gave a long list of the police guilds which had endorsed him, including the King County and Seattle Police Guilds and was able to list several law enforcement related accomplishments.  It was an effective rebut to her attack.

Gregoire, for her part, did a good job exposing Rossi's fraud of a transportation plan in spite of her problems on that issue.  She showed a strong grasp of policy.  Her answer on energy was emblematic of her approach -- a recounting of her accomplishments and the policy specifics she emphasized, followed by an attack on Rossi's record.  There were several issue questions:  energy, education, health care -- where Rossi basically went AWOL.  Voters who closely follow education issues are not going to be impressed by Rossi attacking Gregoire and then sentimentally rambling on about his late father who used to be a teacher.  It doesn't tell us anything about his education plans.  OTOH, for voters from who don't focus on education, Rossi's answer might have sounded heartfelt.
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bgwah
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« Reply #297 on: September 26, 2008, 04:11:22 PM »

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ1p3tLKE-A

I wish Gregoire had good commercials like that.
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Meeker
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« Reply #298 on: September 27, 2008, 01:28:46 AM »


I just saw that on KIRO - great ad. Ditching her '06 ad people for this new team was a great decision.

In other news, Sutherland forgot to show up to a debate with Goldmark and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.
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Alcon
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« Reply #299 on: September 27, 2008, 01:42:49 AM »

and the Democrats' lawsuit was laughed out of court.

I really feel bad for all of the local Dem officials who had to pretend that wasn't the bullsh**ttiest bullsh**t in the history of bullsh**t.
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