Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 19, 2024, 01:46:09 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 115 116 117 118 119 [120] 121 122 123 124 125 ... 252
Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834172 times)
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 783
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2975 on: January 11, 2012, 11:54:53 PM »

Am I missing something here? Doesn't Brad Owen get to vote on this if it's a tie?  Or is that not somehow not case with the Washington state lieutenant governor?  Should we be talking about him?
For now, no, since it looks like the vote is essentially 23-18, and the issue needs just two more votes to pass, which I suspect would come from Kastama and Hill, and Haugen if she gets her way.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2976 on: January 12, 2012, 12:07:16 AM »

The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.
Logged
HST1948
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 577


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2977 on: January 12, 2012, 12:37:10 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2012, 12:39:15 AM by HST1948 »

This is all very exciting indeed! Does anybody have an idea of when a vote will be held? I remember when Cuomo and the Senate were trying to hammer out the details of the bill and garner support in my state... the vote kept getting delayed for what seemed like weeks... it was agonizing.  

Oh and what's the deal with the referendum on this? Will there be one? Sorry if I'm asking questions that have been answered before... I joined the thread a little late in the game.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,688


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2978 on: January 12, 2012, 12:47:53 AM »

If it passed, there will almost certainly be a referendum.
Logged
greenforest32
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,625


Political Matrix
E: -7.94, S: -8.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2979 on: January 12, 2012, 12:51:11 AM »

The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.

So what type of scenarios allow for an odd-numbered legislative chamber to have a tie vote? Member(s) missing/dead or voting 'abstain/present/etc'?
Logged
Seattle
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 783
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2980 on: January 12, 2012, 01:06:27 AM »

The State Senate also has an odd number of members, making ties more rare.

So what type of scenarios allow for an odd-numbered legislative chamber to have a tie vote? Member(s) missing/dead or voting 'abstain/present/etc'?
Im guessing an abstain/sick/death scenario is the only way.
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,500
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.39, S: -5.22

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2981 on: January 12, 2012, 01:10:50 AM »

Oh and what's the deal with the referendum on this? Will there be one? Sorry if I'm asking questions that have been answered before... I joined the thread a little late in the game.

Some legislators want a referendum clause included in the legislation.  But even if one is not included, there will almost certainly be a referendum vote on marriage later by gathering signatures for it.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2982 on: January 12, 2012, 02:06:50 AM »

If it passed, there will almost certainly be a referendum.

Yes, which is why the Haugen position makes no sense to me.  Her issue is that she wants to be sure that there's a referendum, which is inevitable, unless there's an emergency clause...which there isn't.

It'll be interesting to see how much Republican crossover there is in the House, which tends to have more of that.  I know Maureen Walsh (R-Seventh Day Adventist College-land) is for it, which is ballsy of her since: 1) She's unneeded; 2) She may get primary-punished for it.
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,688


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2983 on: January 12, 2012, 02:19:14 AM »

I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2984 on: January 12, 2012, 02:26:47 AM »

I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

A lot of the media coverage also keeps calling the 10th LD "traditionally Republican."  I bet a lot of people locally aren't even aware that it's drifted Democratic and that R-71 passed there.

Do people from your corner of the 10th LD perceive the area as really conservative?  I know a lot of people from Mount Vernon, for instance, who are convinced that the area is really conservative, and that Oak Harbor must completely outvote South Whidbey.  I imagine Haugen is dealing with a lot of conservative activists who are no-compromise because they perceive the 10th LD as hostile to gay rights when it isn't.  Fair assumption?
Logged
RI
realisticidealist
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,688


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2985 on: January 12, 2012, 02:51:22 AM »

I actually live in Haugen's district, btw. Her district (at least the old one; the new one doesn't look much better) wasn't exactly liberal-leaning outside South Whidbey.

A lot of the media coverage also keeps calling the 10th LD "traditionally Republican."  I bet a lot of people locally aren't even aware that it's drifted Democratic and that R-71 passed there.

Do people from your corner of the 10th LD perceive the area as really conservative?  I know a lot of people from Mount Vernon, for instance, who are convinced that the area is really conservative, and that Oak Harbor must completely outvote South Whidbey.  I imagine Haugen is dealing with a lot of conservative activists who are no-compromise because they perceive the 10th LD as hostile to gay rights when it isn't.  Fair assumption?

The area is traditionally Republican, but not by a whole lot. It's mostly due to the relatively rural nature of the district (farmlands in the Stilliguamish Valley and Mount Vernon areas, forests and rednecks elsewhere) plus the military presence on Whidbey, but they don't seem radibly conservative or anything like that. Where I am seems more economically conservative than socially, but then again my neighborhood is a bit weathier than the district at large (near the Lake Goodwin area) though that isn't saying much.

The area does seem to be changing a bit. It seems like it's developing a lot more and becoming a bit more exurban in a strange way. Part of it is Camano Island, which has been trending toward the Democrats on social issues pretty quickly as it gets more affluent. The northern parts of the new district, like Mt. Vernon and Anacortes always struck me as working class Aberdeen-esque towns (with Hispanics in Mt. Vernon's case), with Burlington being exurban strip mall land. Skagit County did vote for R-71, but I'm not sure why (I haven't looked into precinct data or anything), so it must not be that populist of an area.

Truthfully, I don't have much reason to go up further north than Stanwood that often, so my impressions might be a bit outdated of that area. I certainly wouldn't call it very conservative; even by Western Washington standards it isn't as bad as Lewis County or anything like that.
Logged
Jackson
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2986 on: January 12, 2012, 03:23:26 AM »

I made a map of R-71 by precinct in Skagit County in case anyone was curious to see how it voted on the issue.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2987 on: January 12, 2012, 03:36:10 AM »

The area is traditionally Republican, but not by a whole lot. It's mostly due to the relatively rural nature of the district (farmlands in the Stilliguamish Valley and Mount Vernon areas, forests and rednecks elsewhere) plus the military presence on Whidbey, but they don't seem radibly conservative or anything like that. Where I am seems more economically conservative than socially, but then again my neighborhood is a bit weathier than the district at large (near the Lake Goodwin area) though that isn't saying much.

The area does seem to be changing a bit. It seems like it's developing a lot more and becoming a bit more exurban in a strange way. Part of it is Camano Island, which has been trending toward the Democrats on social issues pretty quickly as it gets more affluent. The northern parts of the new district, like Mt. Vernon and Anacortes always struck me as working class Aberdeen-esque towns (with Hispanics in Mt. Vernon's case), with Burlington being exurban strip mall land. Skagit County did vote for R-71, but I'm not sure why (I haven't looked into precinct data or anything), so it must not be that populist of an area.

Truthfully, I don't have much reason to go up further north than Stanwood that often, so my impressions might be a bit outdated of that area. I certainly wouldn't call it very conservative; even by Western Washington standards it isn't as bad as Lewis County or anything like that.

That helps a lot!  The only parts of the 10th I haven't been to are Camano Island and your area, so that was about what I needed to know Tongue

From what I remember R-71, it won Skagit County because of strong performances around the water areas, plus Anacortes and Mount Vernon, and especially La Conner.  The farming areas were not nearly as bad (they were very pro-gay around La Conner)...maybe hippie farmers.  Either way, interesting place.  And for better or worse, I can see why people are moving there, it's pretty beautiful country.

Edit: Yeah, Jackson, I'd love to see that.
Logged
Jackson
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 568
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2988 on: January 12, 2012, 03:40:55 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2012, 03:42:32 AM by Pacific Governor Jackson »

Here it is.



Sorry about the water-including precinct boundaries, by the way.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2989 on: January 12, 2012, 04:11:54 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2012, 04:18:28 AM by Alcon »

Thanks!  And not your fault on the boundaries - Shapefile maker's fault.

Here's an annotated version:



Basically, it passed due to coastal areas, hippies, La Conner, a good showing in Mount Vernon, a close loss in Burlington (despite so much red there), and unusually mixed rural areas.  It seems like there are an unusual number of progressive farmers in the Skagit for Washington state.  Dodge Valley (the rural Approve >70% area around La Conner) is crazy liberal despite being almost all farms.

I think that's about right...

Anyway, Haugen's new district is gaining some conservative areas on the other side of I-5 from Stanwood.  However, I'm pretty sure the new district was still about 50/50.  Haugen's position doesn't make much sense, but it's probably not politically motivated, and I doubt her district would punish her for this.  (Although she did only win by 8 points in 2010, so who knows...but I trust her honesty.)
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2990 on: January 12, 2012, 04:15:17 AM »

My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! Tongue
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2991 on: January 12, 2012, 04:24:49 AM »

My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! Tongue

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.
Logged
ottermax
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,788
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.58, S: -6.09

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2992 on: January 12, 2012, 04:27:03 AM »

My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! Tongue

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.

Doesn't Mt. Vernon have that conservative racist mayor who is a huge supporter of Glen Beck (whose hometown is Mt. Vernon)?
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2993 on: January 12, 2012, 04:41:22 AM »
« Edited: January 12, 2012, 04:51:31 AM by Alcon »

My observation of Mt. Vernon based solely on driving through on I-5 a bunch: "Il Granaio" whoa well aren't you guys hip!? Oooooh, tulips on an old smokestack. Edgy.

No surprise they're liberals! Tongue

It's, like, 20% hardcore redneck, 20% crunchy granola type, 20% Mexican.  Seems like a pretty fantastic place.  I like to imagine that the local politics are hilarious.

Doesn't Mt. Vernon have that conservative racist mayor who is a huge supporter of Glen Beck (whose hometown is Mt. Vernon)?

Did, at least ostensibly.  Apparently, in addition to being big on English only and Glenn Beck (whatever), he opposed a tequila and taco place because the former tenant of the building had too many 911 calls even though they didn't.  Because, you know, the building must be haunted.  He also fought over a library who dared put up a sign that included the word "biblioteca."  He decided not to run for a third term.

Their new mayor, despite looking pretty stereotypically liberal to me, is apparently a Republican, but was endorsed by the Skagit Young Dems.  Maybe local politics there aren't as colorful as I'd hoped Sad
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2994 on: January 12, 2012, 06:37:37 AM »

Why, Sedro Woolley?  Why?   Sad
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,164


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2995 on: January 12, 2012, 04:15:35 PM »

DelBene officially got in today.
Logged
bgwah
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,833
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2996 on: January 12, 2012, 06:04:42 PM »

We need a title update! It's not 2011 anymore. Smiley
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2997 on: January 12, 2012, 06:23:17 PM »

Can someone come up with something clever about gays, budgets and/or special sessions?
Logged
JohnnyLongtorso
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2998 on: January 12, 2012, 06:40:26 PM »

DelBene is in for WA-01.
Logged
Alcon
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,867
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2999 on: January 12, 2012, 09:04:42 PM »

Sen. Haugen (D-Camano Island), previously committed (at least apparently) to voting against any bill lacking a referendum, seems to be reconsidering.  Her latest official statement on gay marriage:

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

No new news otherwise, besides that Kastama is "researching states that have legalized gay marriage." (uh-huh.)
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 115 116 117 118 119 [120] 121 122 123 124 125 ... 252  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.072 seconds with 9 queries.