Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 834186 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #3025 on: January 17, 2012, 07:49:49 PM »

I think it would depend on how many candidates are still running at that point... Paul winning is far from a sure thing either way, though.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #3026 on: January 17, 2012, 07:56:11 PM »

I wish I had someone to throw snowballs at.  Sad
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Seattle
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« Reply #3027 on: January 17, 2012, 09:27:47 PM »

The snow forecast has always been loaded toward tonight through tomorrow afternoon...they weren't predicting more than an inch or two tonight and today.

It looks like we're scaling back to about 3-8", though.  Maybe that will become a trend and we'll get nothing.
As a weather nerd.... I'd say if you are north of Everett you wont get more than an inch or two... Seattle like 5-9 inches, 10+ South of Tacoma.

Anyway, Im EXCITED. Way more interesting than politics. Tongue

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Jackson
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« Reply #3028 on: January 18, 2012, 12:20:38 AM »

That is unfortunately incorrect, as I am currently north of Everett and we've had over two inches of snowfall already. 
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3029 on: January 18, 2012, 01:16:25 AM »

Meanwhile in Spokane we have less than an inch on the ground.... Oh how the tables have turned.
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« Reply #3030 on: January 18, 2012, 11:43:15 AM »

Meanwhile in Spokane we have less than an inch on the ground.... Oh how the tables have turned.

Yep. It's not very exciting here.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3031 on: January 18, 2012, 02:57:44 PM »

We ended up with like 6-8".  Looks like the snow tapered off the farther north you got of about Centralia.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3032 on: January 18, 2012, 06:31:33 PM »

House companion bill for marriage equality has been posted. It has 50 co-sponsors so it's guaranteed passage.

Only one Republican - Rep. Maureen Walsh (16th LD) - sponsored it.

Democrats who did not sponsor it:

Rep. Tim Probst (17th LD)
Rep. Brian Blake (19th LD)
Rep. Tami Green (28th LD)
Rep. Troy Kelley (28th LD)
Rep. Steve Kirby (29th LD)
Rep. Mark Miloscia (30th LD)
Rep. Chris Hurst (31st LD)

Only headscratcher there is Kirby.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3033 on: January 18, 2012, 06:55:47 PM »

Words fail. In short: Rep. Glenn Anderson (R-5th LD) is also supporting marriage equality but is insane.

http://blog.thenewstribune.com/politics/2012/01/18/rep-glenn-anderson-backs-same-sex-marriage-after-research-into-code-of-hammurabi-council-of-trent-emperor-justinian/
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greenforest32
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« Reply #3034 on: January 18, 2012, 07:45:35 PM »

So what happens to all the domestic partnerships if (once?) gay marriage becomes legal? Are they automatically converted into marriages?

Answering my own question here: http://www.kimatv.com/news/local/Washington-House-introduces-same-sex-marriage-bill-137525018.html

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lol
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Alcon
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« Reply #3035 on: January 18, 2012, 09:15:34 PM »
« Edited: January 18, 2012, 09:56:45 PM by Alcon »

As ridiculous as this is for a public statement (the Code of Hammurabi? hahah), that is really an impeccably reasoned and unusually thoughtful justification for voting for legislation.  Almost every word of it is 100% right too.

I have another person who I can like more than Brad Owen!
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Alcon
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« Reply #3036 on: January 18, 2012, 11:09:44 PM »

Undecided Sen. Jim Kastama (D-Puyallup) is having a press conference tomorrow to announce his vote.

http://www.seattlepi.com/news/article/Undecided-WA-Dem-to-announce-vote-on-gay-marriage-2613506.php

No Gregoire-y insider information here:  he's keeping his announcement secret.

That said, if he announces a vote against it, that would be pretty bizarre, in my opinion.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3037 on: January 19, 2012, 03:22:06 AM »

NOM fires a "we'll primary you" warning shot against openly undecided Republicans Sen. Andy Hill (R-Redmond) and Sen. Joe Fain (R-Auburn):

http://publicola.com/2012/01/18/jolt-anti-gay-marriage-group-threatens-republicans-who-vote-for-equality-bill/

Hard to imagine Hill really need be that intimidated by a primary challenge, but Fain's district has more conservative Republicans...however, I think this would be vastly more concerning to the uncommitted-but-not-openly-undecided Republicans, Sen. Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee) and Sen. Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale).

***

Over at a town hall in the fairly gay-friendly Skagit County community of Bayview, Rep. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) will still "consider it."  No explicit hints she's budging, though.  Meanwhile, in her district, the city council of uber-liberal Langley is set to endorse the effort.

http://www.whidbeyexaminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=1&SubSectionID=1&ArticleID=7174
http://www.southwhidbeyrecord.com/news/137381598.html

***

No new news otherwise.  The undecideds I didn't mention remain Sen. Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond) and Sen. Paull Shin (D-Edmonds).
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Alcon
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« Reply #3038 on: January 19, 2012, 03:16:09 PM »
« Edited: January 19, 2012, 03:25:19 PM by Alcon »

Sen. Kastama (D-Puyallup) is a "Yes."  The effort is now one vote shy.

http://mynorthwest.com/174/607126/Wash-Senate-now-1-vote-short-on-gay-marriage

***

Also, today the "Yes" side received endorsements from Microsoft, Concur, Group Health, Nike, RealNetworks and Vulcan Inc.

http://blogs.technet.com/b/microsoft_blog/archive/2012/01/19/marriage-equality-in-washington-state-would-be-good-for-business.aspx

***

And a SurveyUSA poll has gay marriage up only 47%-46%

http://www.king5.com/news/local/KING-5-poll-State-divided-over-gay-marriage-137689348.html

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Not a very good result.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #3039 on: January 19, 2012, 03:32:21 PM »


     Perhaps it's a parody of the Magna Carta bill introduced in the NH State Legislature.
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Nathan
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« Reply #3040 on: January 19, 2012, 06:07:00 PM »
« Edited: January 19, 2012, 06:08:46 PM by Nathan »

What are Hill, Fain, Parlette, Ericksen, Hatfield, and Shin like, and what are the chances of at least a couple of them coming down as Yes?
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ottermax
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« Reply #3041 on: January 19, 2012, 07:34:04 PM »

I don't know why Parlette and Ericksen are undecided because they both seem like opposition.

Shin represents a supportive constituency but is Mormon (but he's a Democrat).

Hill also represents a very supportive constituency but is a Republican

Fain is a less sure vote and I think his LD might have voted against R-71 (he's also a Republican).

Hatfield is a Democrat of a more working class district that also voted against R-71, but he seems rather open-minded about this despite voting against domestic partnerships. Supposedly he's become more religious over the past few years too.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3042 on: January 19, 2012, 07:51:34 PM »

What are Hill, Fain, Parlette, Ericksen, Hatfield, and Shin like, and what are the chances of at least a couple of them coming down as Yes?

Joe Fain (R-Auburn) - Freshman from exurban King County, "talking to constituents."  His district leans slightly conservative, but he's young (31) and has taken socially liberal votes on LGBT-related issues so far.  I'd say 60% odds of a "Yes."

Brian Hatfield (D-Raymond) - A conservative Democrat from working-class coastal Washington, which leans slightly right on gay issues.  Also a recently serious Christian.  He's traditionally opposed LGBT issues, but is...going through self-discovery or something.  I'd say 50% odds.

Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) - Older Catholic lady, social moderate.  Initially refused to considering anything without a referendum clause.  Kind of a confusing position since a referendum is inevitable.  Recently, after a series of town halls where old lesbians frowned at her, she's become more amenable to the current bill.  I'd say 55% odds.

Andy Hill (R-Redmond) - Socially moderate freshman from Microsoftland is also "talking to constituents."  His district is gay-friendly, and Microsoft is supportive.  A primary challenge is unlikely to be an issue for him.  I'd say 65% odds.

Paull Shin (D-Edmonds) - Although from a pro-gay district, he's a traditional Mormon, with a history of opposing LGBT rights.  Basically like Hatfield, but from a more liberal district.  I'd say 55% odds.

The other two undecideds, Linda Evans Parlette (R-Wenatchee) and Doug Ericksen (R-Ferndale) seem like incredibly unlikely "Yes"es.  I'd say 15% odds each.
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Seattle
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« Reply #3043 on: January 19, 2012, 11:27:51 PM »

However, wasn't Ericksen's district like only 52-48 Yes on R71?
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bgwah
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« Reply #3044 on: January 20, 2012, 01:40:55 PM »

+1 gay marriage and +9 Cantwell seems like an outlier to me.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3045 on: January 23, 2012, 03:47:33 PM »

Sen. Mary Margaret Haugen (D-Camano Island) is a "Yes," meaning that gay marriage has the 25 votes needed to pass.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/01/23/washington-gay-marriage_n_1224397.html
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ottermax
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« Reply #3046 on: January 23, 2012, 07:51:12 PM »

This is awesome.

I wonder what the rest of the undecideds will do. I'm pretty sure most will end up on the No side, but Hill, Hatfield, or Fain might vote yes.
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Nathan
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« Reply #3047 on: January 23, 2012, 07:53:19 PM »

Exciting.

bgwah, when you say that the poll seems like an outlier, do you mean that you'd expect a higher number for gay marriage and a lower number for Cantwell, higher numbers for both, or something else?
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bgwah
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« Reply #3048 on: January 23, 2012, 07:55:58 PM »

When can we expect a vote?

Exciting.

bgwah, when you say that the poll seems like an outlier, do you mean that you'd expect a higher number for gay marriage and a lower number for Cantwell, higher numbers for both, or something else?

I'd have expected better numbers for both, especially gay marriage.
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Frodo
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« Reply #3049 on: January 23, 2012, 08:47:37 PM »

When this inevitably goes to a referendum, what is the likelihood of gay marriage being legalized in Washington state? 
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