Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Fuzzybigfoot]

ughhhhhhhhhhhhh

[Alcon]

Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

[bgwah]

Full results:

Ref. 74 - Marriage equality
Approve 50%
Reject 43%

Eyman two-thirds
Yes 56%
No 19%

Marijuana legalization
Yes 56%
No 32%

Charter schools
Yes 46%
No 29%

Wow... That's SUSA? Saying pot is ahead by a 24 point margin? I think pot overpolls, but +24 means it's probably actually ahead!

[CT27]

Haven't been following this too much:

Does McKenna actually have a chance to win?

[Alcon]

The somewhat bad news for the Republicans here is that undecideds tend to be Democratic voters.  For instance:

* In the Governor's race, 8% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 3% are undecided Romney voters.

* In the AG race, 12% of respondents are undecided Obama voters; only 6% are undecided Romney voters.

Charter schools undecideds split 10%-10% between Obama and Romney voters.

Eyman issue splits undecideds 13%-7% Obama.

Also, apparently Cupcake Royale's pro-R74 cupcakes raised $7,000 this month.  Not bad.

[CultureKing]

Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

[bgwah]

I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?

[Frodo]

Those Eyman numbers make me want to cry.

Those are the kinds of numbers that makes you stay up at night. 

[bgwah]

I remember seeing a really great graph in 2010 that showed the various biases of all the pollsters who poll Washington. Does anybody know where I can find it?

Found it: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/10/13/mail-voting-in-washington-state-may-confound-pollsters/

[Alcon]

Fwiw, Eyman's polling numbers almost always deteriorate as the election approaches (although there would have to be a hell of a lot of deterioration, especially since the voters have passed this before.)

[LastVoter]

How is Eyman polling so well?

[Alcon]

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[Meeker]

Lolz. Matt Shea may be our nuttiest member of the State House (though Condotta gives him a run for his money): http://www.thenewstribune.com/2012/07/22/2223234/wash-legislator-cited-for-gun.html

[Meeker]

Rob McKenna's first ad is up. Politics aside, the production values are pretty shoddy: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FVJcxRllWHA

More of this, please!

[bgwah]

That was just awful.

[Alcon]

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The last line makes no sense, but this is Elway after all.

[Meeker]

Garbage polling, but the news media still takes Elway seriously so this'll probably generate a round of stories about how McKenna is faltering.

[bgwah]

Excellent.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I was browsing 2008 precinct results for fun and I noticed that Brad Owen underperformed dramatically in Capitol Hill. Marcia McCraw routinely received 20% in precincts that gave McCain between 1 and 5% of the vote. She did better than McKenna and Reed. Is the Stranger really that influential in Seattle or did she wage an active campaign aimed at cultural liberals?

[Meeker]

Entirely The Stranger.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

That's pretty crazy, all things considered. I'd have to assume that most of the 1/5th of McCraw/Obama voters are ultra-progressive and aren't of the moderate hero variety. That means something like 20% of capitol hill are avid readers of the editorial pages of a quirky alt-newspaper and actually its advice into consideration. Seattle is weird man.

I'd probably cast a protest vote for McCraw because Brad Owen is a douchenozzle and to tell people that I've voted for a Republican before in an attempt to bolster my "fair and balanced" credentials.

[bgwah]

The Stranger is pretty influential in Seattle.

I got Alcon to make a map once showing it once (McCraw vs. McCain,IIRC?) --- I wonder if he still has it?

[Alcon]

It's The Stranger.  I wish I had the maps still, but McCraw's performance on Cap Hill -- which was  amazing, >30% in a few precincts -- was pretty impressive.  So were the performances of the losing, Stranger-endorsed City Council candidates last year.  There were also echoes of the Stranger effect in Fremont and the U-District.

I was just telling other nerds at the bar tonight that it'll be interesting to see how the anti-fluoridation Lt. Governor candidate they endorsed fares on Cap Hill.  That might be the "Stranger floor."

[bgwah]

Did The Stranger really have to hire Goldy? His crush on Burner is so tiresome, among other things.

[Meeker]

His McKenna stuff is pretty amusing. But yeah, the Burner thing has gotten real old.