Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

New SurveyUSA in WA-01

Koster: 38%
DelBene: 17%
Burner: 13%
Ruderman: 6%
Hobbs: 5%
Rauniyar: 2%
Ishmael: 2%

General match-ups:

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Obama leads Romney 50-40; McKenna leads Inslee 46-44

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Welome to Washington, DFB!

[Napoleon]

I think more progressive groups will start spending to help Burner.

[bgwah]

+2 McKenna in the 1st CD... I think Inslee needs to do a little better there if he's going to win statewide. I'll be interested to see the primary results in the old 1st CD. Kitsap and Snohomish counties are going to be deciding this election, IMO.

[Meeker]

I think more progressive groups will start spending to help Burner.

They better start soon. 25% of voters have already cast ballots.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

It should be interesting to see how the Socialist Alternative candidate Sawant does in the race for the 43rd. I probably wouldn't vote for her because her positions are ludicrous (advocated nationalizing Boeing wtf) even though she's an econ professor.

[bgwah]

It should be interesting to see how the Socialist Alternative candidate Sawant does in the race for the 43rd. I probably wouldn't vote for her because her positions are ludicrous (advocated nationalizing Boeing wtf) even though she's an econ professor.

I don't know... The 43rd had a D vs G race in 2002, where the Green got 21% of the vote. But a significant portion of that was probably Republicans voting for the non-Democrat. In fact, in the 7th CD race in 2010, Broadmoor (the most Republican precinct in Seattle) voted for the independent over McDermott. I think they might be less likely to do that when the non-Democrat is a Socialist. Cracking 10% is definitely doable for Sawant, I think.

[Alcon]

Isn't she a write-in?  That's going to make it hard.

[bgwah]

Isn't she a write-in?  That's going to make it hard.

No. She challenged Pedersen. The Stranger endorsed Pedersen and endorsed Sawant as a write-in against Chopp instead.

[CultureKing]

So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

[ajc0918]

So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

I saw it, it's continuing to look like 2012 will be a great year for marriage equality!

[Ogre Mage]

So no talk about the $2.5 million money bomb lodged by Bezos?

I also noticed that both Bill Gates and Steve Ballmer gave $100,000.  It's notable that these powerful corporate heads have taken our side on this issue.

[bgwah]

Another interesting way to look at The Stranger's strength is is the 2008 Secretary of State race. They endorsed Reed in the primary, but changed their minds and endorsed Osgood in the general. If you compared Reed's primary performance to his general performance, King has by far the biggest drop. While some of this is likely general-only voters voting all D, the 4.7% drop is much bigger than it is in other Democratic counties (1.5% in San Juan, 1.6% in Thurston, 1.1% in Whatcom). Reed's numbers increased in most counties (including Jefferson), but the big drop in King brought his statewide number down 1.07%. How much of that is attributable to The Stranger, I don't know, but a look at the precinct results would probably tell us.

[bgwah]

Here are the 2008 SoS results from the 43rd LD:

Primary
48.45% Osborn (D)
46.91% Reed (R)
2.85% Strickland (C)
1.60% Greene (PoC)
0.19% Write-in

General
66.17% Osborn (D)
33.71% Reed (R)
0.12% Write-in

[Meeker]

It's also fair to say The Stranger was the reason McGinn got out of the primary and won the general.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There's a good chance that DelBene is more left-wing than she appears: she graduated from Reed College in the days when its unofficial motto ("communism, atheism and free love") was far closer to the truth than it is today and she makes no real mention of a religious affiliation on her page. Her profile is one of an inoffensive moderate but her issue positions are that of a standard progressive.

Nominate her, please. Ruderman is also a good choice but the anti-Burners need to unite.

[bgwah]

There's a good chance that DelBene is more left-wing than she appears: she graduated from Reed College in the days when its unofficial motto ("communism, atheism and free love") was far closer to the truth than it is today and she makes no real mention of a religious affiliation on her page. Her profile is one of an inoffensive moderate but her issue positions are that of a standard progressive.

Nominate her, please. Ruderman is also a good choice but the anti-Burners need to unite.

She's definitely running as a progressive, too. The competitive primary has probably caused some of that, but here's what the mailer I got yesterday says:

"Who's the ONE progressive candidate who can actually make progress on these issues in Congress? Hold Wall Street Accountable. Pro-Choice. Medicare not Millionaires. I DO support marriage equality."

The next page calls her a "progressive problem solver" and talks about raising taxes on the rich.

I like Laura Ruderman but DelBene has clearly become the anti-Burner, and Ruderman's mom has made her campaign look pretty silly.

[Meeker]

I refuse to believe it'll actually end up at 30% but I'm having difficulty seeing how it breaks even 35%.

[bgwah]

What was it in 2008 and 2010? (Not including the Presidential primary)

[Meeker]

2008 was about 43%, 2010 was about 41%. So we're talking about a big drop-off here.

The only thing that's really changed is moving the primary date up. But I'm kinda shocked it would have this much of an effect (I do not recall the move from September to August having a big effect on turnout, for example.)

[bgwah]

Hmm. It will be interesting to see if this benefits either side.

[Meeker]

I think I figured it out...

Based on the Orbitz survey, more consumers are planning to travel in July (31 percent) rather than in June (18 percent) or August (20 percent) with the rest of travelers still undecided. http://www.hospitalitynet.org/news/4056154.html

July is the most popular month for vacations, with 44% of the Americans, who are taking at least one summer vacation, indicating they plan to vacation in July. http://www.examiner.com/article/a-look-at-america-s-summer-vacation-plans

[Ogre Mage]

Burner has gone negative on DelBene:

http://blog.seattlepi.com/seattlepolitics/2012/08/02/darcy-burner-flip-flops-goes-furiously-negative/

Apparently this is a reversal of an earlier pledge of the Burner campaign to not go negative.  Clearly, her internal polling must be telling her that DelBene's self-funded advertising push is working.

Color me skeptical that this last minute attack will actually work.   If I had to bet, my unscientific guess would be that Suzan DelBene will advance to the general with Koster.  

[bgwah]

^ I can't wait for her to go away for good after her third loss. At least I hope she goes away...

[bgwah]

Why are you guys being so quiet on election eve? any predictions?