Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[bgwah]

Why can't all counties use the newer SoS-hosted site that has precinct results?

King released their LD breakdown: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012aug-primary/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

unfortunately it looks like it's a bunch of incorrect non-sense. Sigh

[Fuzzybigfoot]

2012 legislative primaries in Washington State, 1st positions

[bgwah]

Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?

No, these are just the results for the 1st house positions.  I'll do a map showing the winners for the 2nd position winners as well.

[Meeker]

The 29th isn't Republican...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The 29th isn't Republican...

btw Fuzzy, thanks for making this awesome map!  I luv u sooooooo much. 

[Jackson]

So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

Edit:Great maps Fuzzy! Although I think you made an error on the senate maps as I'm pretty sure  that the 20th and 2nd districts were won by Republicans.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

I'm sticking with mah man Jay.


And welcome back. 

[Jackson]

Thanks!

[bgwah]

FWIW, the Republicans threw down about 25k in mailers in the Haugen/Bailey race before the primary; the Democrats spent nothing. I think this is Bailey's high-water mark.

They also spent 20k on cable ads against Dawn Morrell and 25k on cable ads against Eric Choiniere. Explains in part their poor showing in part (I anticipate Morrell can make it closer come November; unsure about Choiniere).

Haugen has been pretty terrible on transportation issues. I'd rather have control of the state senate obviously but losing just her wouldn't be too awful.

[Jackson]

I don't think we should get too riled up over the results of a fairly low-turnout election. The final results could look completely different.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Edit:Great maps Fuzzy! Although I think you made an error on the senate maps as I'm pretty sure  that the 20th and 2nd districts were won by Republicans.

Thanks Jackson.     Although I looked again at the results today, and it looks like that Democrat in the 2nd is ahead by a single vote now.  lol

[Jackson]

Is there a reason why that race is so close?

[Meeker]

^^^ There's another Republican who is pulling in a little less than 20%; it won't be close in November (though Lachney is our best possible candidate in the 2nd).

I'm personally pretty pleased with Tuesday's results. I think we have a good shot at winning all three open Congressional races and have a decent shot at winning every statewide constitutional office. Only downside is the State Legislature - we might net lose a seat in the Senate and three in the House.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I'm working on the next map now. 

[bgwah]

So just to clarify, if the primary is any indication, the Senate is likely to go from 27-22 to 26-23? With the Republicans almost certainly taking the 25th, and maybe the 10th, while the Democrats possibly take the 5th?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So just to clarify, if the primary is any indication, the Senate is likely to go from 27-22 to 26-23? With the Republicans almost certainly taking the 25th, and maybe the 10th, while the Democrats possibly take the 5th?

Yep. 

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Primaries for the second house positions:




Btw there's some "Independent Democrat" who got a majority in the 31st, just in case you were wondering about the color.  

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I gave $200 to the Approve R-74 campaign today because my (lesbian) state legislator's 12-year-old son came up with a great allegory that incorporated Ralph Waldo Emerson's quote about the purpose of life not being happiness but usefulness etc. etc. etc.  Anyway, I'm easily manipulated by precocious children, but it felt good.

Damn those Jedi mind tricks! 

[RI]

I really want precinct maps for SoS and Auditor in King and Pierce.

[bgwah]

Btw there's some "Independent Democrat" who got a majority in the 31st, just in case you were wondering about the color. 

Hurst? He's the incumbent and did the same in 2010. I would probably just count him as a Democrat.

I really want precinct maps for SoS in King and Pierce.

I want precinct results from King, period!! We don't even have LD results yet.

I do wonder how well Kathleen Drew did in the 5th LD, since she was State Senator there before. Oh, and I also want to see Lt. Governor in King --- but I grew up in an area that was 45th in the 90s (Finkbeiner) and 5th in the 2000s (Anderson) so maybe only I would find it interesting.

[Alcon]

U.S. Senate (by party, not candidate)


(my >50 may be messed up, sorry)

[Alcon]

Governor (with D>50 fixed)

[Alcon]

Gonzalez v. Danielson

[RI]

Alcon, you flipped the colors for Facebook? How could you betray us like that?