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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 329767 times)
bgwah
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E: -1.03, S: -6.96

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« Reply #3750 on: August 25, 2012, 12:25:51 am »
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Also, based off of the precincts he won, I randomly wondered if Kastama is Jewish. And in fact he is, according to Alcon.

Never thought I'd be able to guess something like that based on a map for a race in WA.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3751 on: August 25, 2012, 12:41:38 am »
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Auditor:

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3752 on: August 25, 2012, 01:03:53 am »
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SC Pos. 9:

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3753 on: August 25, 2012, 01:25:00 am »
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US Senator:

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« Reply #3754 on: August 25, 2012, 01:53:31 am »
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This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? Tongue

Also, the unusually Republican precinct in South Lake Union appears to be the result of the new Mirabella retirement home (props to bgwah) and has brought that precinct down to about 55-45 Dem in the Governor's race (67-26 for Senate)...shouldn't be as GOP in the General, but an interesting aberration in the middle of central Seattle.
« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 01:59:42 am by Alcon »Logged

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3755 on: August 25, 2012, 01:58:09 am »
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SoS - Dems Only:

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3756 on: August 25, 2012, 01:59:22 am »
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This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? Tongue

Found it here: http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/
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« Reply #3757 on: August 25, 2012, 02:01:38 am »
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This is fantastic.  How did you get a shapefile so fast? Tongue

Found it here: http://www5.kingcounty.gov/gisdataportal/

Oh, nice.  Good for King County, they've guarded it more in the past.

Would it be possible for you to do a map of Deal's performance by 5% intervals, zoomed in on the City of Seattle? Tongue I know that's more work, but I'd love the amusement.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3758 on: August 25, 2012, 02:21:48 am »
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Auditor - Dems Only:

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3759 on: August 25, 2012, 03:00:51 am »
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Lt. Gov (Finkbeiner - Blue, Anderson - Green, Deal - Yellow)

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3760 on: August 25, 2012, 03:11:50 am »
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Lt Gov - Reps Only

« Last Edit: August 25, 2012, 03:15:50 am by realisticidealist »Logged

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3761 on: August 25, 2012, 03:26:51 am »
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James Robert Deal, 5% increments

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« Reply #3762 on: August 25, 2012, 05:43:55 am »
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That's hilarious.  Do you mind if I share it around?
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3763 on: August 25, 2012, 12:28:03 pm »
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That's hilarious.  Do you mind if I share it around?

Go ahead. Some sort of attribution would be cool, though. Wink
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Meeker
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« Reply #3764 on: August 25, 2012, 12:42:27 pm »
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How about the AG race?
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bgwah
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« Reply #3765 on: August 25, 2012, 07:43:26 pm »
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Thanks for the maps!

Any chance of a 1st CD Dem primary map?

And this one is semi-complicated... Would it be possible to get a map comparing Inslee and Cantwell? More specifically (since Cantwell almost certainly did better just about everywhere), maybe compare the margins in each race to see where the candidates did better? So you would take Cantwell's number (67.73) minus Inslee's number (59.93) to get that Cantwell did 7.8 points better, and adjust the map accordingly? It's the same math used for the trend maps, basically. So my precinct being 62% Cantwell and 58% Inslee would end up being about 4 points more Inslee.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3766 on: August 26, 2012, 12:56:14 am »
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Attorney General:

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3767 on: August 26, 2012, 01:12:34 am »
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CD 1 - Dems Only (DelBene - Red, Burner - Green, Ruderman - Yellow)

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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3768 on: August 26, 2012, 01:46:24 am »
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Thanks for the maps!

Any chance of a 1st CD Dem primary map?

And this one is semi-complicated... Would it be possible to get a map comparing Inslee and Cantwell? More specifically (since Cantwell almost certainly did better just about everywhere), maybe compare the margins in each race to see where the candidates did better? So you would take Cantwell's number (67.73) minus Inslee's number (59.93) to get that Cantwell did 7.8 points better, and adjust the map accordingly? It's the same math used for the trend maps, basically. So my precinct being 62% Cantwell and 58% Inslee would end up being about 4 points more Inslee.

Here you go. Blue is an area of relative Inslee strength. Red is an area of relative Cantwell strength.

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Meeker
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« Reply #3769 on: August 26, 2012, 01:54:23 am »
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So Seattle is an Inslee town and Bellevue a Cantwell town. That makes sense, I suppose.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3770 on: August 26, 2012, 02:31:46 am »
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I rather like this look, but it's a little different. It's all three counties for the SC Pos 9 race, without the precinct lines. I like how three different candidates won the three major metropolitan areas: Hilyer won Seattle, Ladenburg won Tacoma, and McCloud won Everett. It also clearly shows the impact of county lines.



Edit: Added Thurston County.

Selected City Stats
Arlington: Sanders 33.19%, McCloud 28.13%, Hilyer 21.89%, Ladenburg 16.36%
Auburn: McCloud 28.58%, Sanders 28.37%, Hilyer 26.40%, Ladenburg 16.43%
Bellevue: Hilyer 42.21%, Sanders 25.06%, McCloud 21.90%, Ladenburg 10.60%
Bothell: Hilyer 31.50%, Sanders 30.29%, McCloud 25.25%, Ladenburg 12.78%
-Bothell (Snohomish): Sanders 31.28%, Hilyer 28.18%, McCloud 26.27%, Ladenburg 14.00%
-Bothell (King): Hilyer 34.04%, Sanders 29.53%, McCloud 24.47%, Ladenburg 11.85%
Edmonds: Hilyer 32.85%, McCloud 26.87%, Sanders 24.28%, Ladenburg 15.80%
Everett: McCloud 33.72%, Sanders 26.73%, Hilyer 22.50%, Ladenburg 16.66%
Federal Way: McCloud 27.54%, Hilyer 27.20%, Sanders 26.47%, Ladenburg 18.49%
Kent: Hilyer 29.24%, McCloud 27.97%, Sanders 27.80%, Ladenburg 14.75%
Kirkland: Hilyer 37.72%, Sanders 25.59%, McCloud 23.99%, Ladenburg 12.45%
Lacey: McCloud 31.76%, Sanders 29.20%, Hilyer 21.31%, Ladenburg 17.73%
Lake Stevens: McCloud 31.10%, Sanders 30.94%, Hilyer 22.27%, Ladenburg 15.32%
Lynnwood: McCloud 33.46%, Hilyer 25.31%, Sanders 25.12%, Ladenburg 15.79%
Marysville: McCloud 32.54%, Sanders 29.76%, Hilyer 19.97%, Ladenburg 17.45%
Mercer Island: Hilyer 50.79%, Sanders 21.10%, McCloud 18.99%, Ladenburg 9.06%
Mill Creek: Hilyer 31.65%, Sanders 29.50%, McCloud 24.54%, Ladenburg 14.02%
Mountlake Terrace: McCloud 32.83%, Hilyer 25.92%, Sanders 25.545, Ladenburg 15.55%
Mukilteo: Hilyer 29.17%, Sanders 27.30%, McCloud 27.17%, Ladenburg 16.13%
Olympia: McCloud 31.29%, Hilyer 31.11%, Sanders 21.01%, Ladenburg 16.59%
Redmond: Hilyer 39.61%, McCloud 24.66%, Sanders 24.62%, Ladenburg 10.89%
Renton: Hilyer 30.86%, McCloud 30.47%, Sanders 24.64%, Ladenburg 13.71%
Seattle: Hilyer 55.50%, McCloud 23.80%, Sanders 11.85%, Ladenburg 8.65%
Shoreline: Hilyer 41.18%, McCloud 26.32%, Sanders 21.24%, Ladenburg 11.03%
Woodinville: Hilyer 32.46%, Sanders 26.87%, McCloud 25.43%, Ladenburg 14.84%
« Last Edit: August 26, 2012, 03:41:30 am by realisticidealist »Logged

"The greatest thing you'll ever learn is just to love and be loved in return."
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« Reply #3771 on: August 26, 2012, 03:34:49 am »
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Hard number fun on James Robert Deal:

Deal received 6.13% in King County.  He received 11% in Seattle, and 3% outside of the city.  That's even lower than his statewide total (4.%).

Deal's best performances were Georgetown/SoDo (30%), Capitol Hill (26%), Central District (23%), Fremont (18%), South Park (18%), North Beacon Hill (17%), and the U-District (17%).

I think it's also pretty clear that Deal is more or less the Stranger's floor.  I imagine a lot of their devotees weren't willing to vote for an anti-fluoridation crank.  Whatever the cause, there were also a lot of Greene and Republican votes (proportionate to other races) in areas where Deal did better.  Owen was the only Democrat on the ballot, yet his two weakest showings in Seattle were Georgetown/SoDo (38%) and Capitol Hill (50%).
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3772 on: August 28, 2012, 01:17:44 am »
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Anyone else get the feeling that R-74 is going to pass by an unexpectedly large margin? The TV ads in favor have started hitting the airways and I think the pro-equality side has done a great job in selecting people to go on air (Pflug, olds, ect).

I am starting to think that something along the lines of 55-45 in favor could be realistic..
Smiley
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Meeker
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« Reply #3773 on: August 28, 2012, 01:27:58 am »
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Catholic Church is collecting donations at Mass in the next two weeks. NOM will probably drop a boatload of money in sometime in the next few weeks (remember that there are no contribution limits for initiatives).

Expect to see ads very soon about how if R-74 is approved churches will be forced by the government to marry gay couples.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #3774 on: August 28, 2012, 02:02:01 am »
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True, although I feel like NOM is busy elsewhere (Maryland, Maine and Minnesota) and I am not sure if they are going to get anywhere close to matching their counterparts fundraising.

Are the Catholics really collecting at Mass to fight gay marriage? ...and they wonder why their congregations in places like Washington are losing young adherents right and left.
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