Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Pierce County ballots often tend to be GOP later, a trend especially bad this year (some nasty results for Democrats in today's batches in the 25th LD.)  However, King County late ballots tend to be Democratic...and although I didn't check specifically, it looks like that held up this year...things seem fairly stable-ish.  I may be wrong.

My precinct: 61% Cantwell, 54% Inslee, 55% Ferguson, 58% Kilmer, 76% Jinkins...that probably only amuses me, but whatever.

I want to know how my previous hometown of Walla Walla voted.

On what?

[Ogre Mage]

lol at Michael Baumgartner, losing his home county (Spokane) to Sen. Cantwell.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?

[realisticidealist]

Is it just me, or are Democrats slipping in Whitman?

Democrats typically do better there in the general than in the primary. I think it's because WSU is on break during the primary, though I could be wrong.

[bgwah]

In addition to poor student turnout for primaries, made worse due to it being summer, Whitman has never been very democratic. It voted D by modest margins in landslide years like 06 and 08. I expect it to be a McKenna/Cantwell county in November. Swing for President.

[Torie]

Sean Trende has turned his gaze upon your fair state. Nothing that arresting in it this time however, but for those of you who like numbers, numbers and more numbers ...

[bgwah]

Here's a map comparing Murray 2010 (46.04%) and Inslee 2012 (46.77%).



Inslee got a bump in his old 1990s 4th CD, especially in Yakima, but not so much in his 2000s 1st CD.

Murray did better in SW WA, where Rob Hill took around 1/3 of the Democratic vote from Inslee...?

1990s Congressional map, for comparison:

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:


Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The 3rd district primary map is very stereotypical:


Green - Marcus Riccelli
Red - Bob Apple
Yellow - Jon Snyder
Blue - Tim Benn

Cool! 

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Can you say a little more about that?  I know Marcus is a pretty progressive guy, and a former Young Democrats high muckamuck, and Apple is a conservative Dem on City Council...but what about Jon Snyder?

Jon Snyder is a stereotypical crunchy progressive: he went to Evergreen, is a strong advocate of gay rights (his mom is lesbian), and was the chair of a local progressive radio station. If you check his website you'll know what I mean: everything about him is a latte liberal stereotype. He only performed well in the south hill and around the core of the city. Bob Apple's pattern of support works the same way: he only performed well in blue collar Spokane but outside of his core, he did very poorly. I've noticed that Apple's signs were nearly exclusively located in the most depressed area of Spokane.

Riccelli reminds me of Josh Mandel: he sounds and looks far younger than he is.

[CultureKing]

Wow... the Republican in that race (that managed to advance) is going to get OWNED.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Cool, thanks.  Obviously some Republican cross-over there; I wonder where it went.  And you're right, Marcus is pretty young-looking and I didn't realize he was 34.

I don't know much about Spokane politics, but the winning Republican (Tim Benn) comes across as an idiot.  The other Republican, Morgan Oyler, actually seems intelligent enough, although I'm sure his libertarian leans sunk him with Spokane Republicans.

Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)

[realisticidealist]

Oh, hey RealisticIdealist: Did you expect this Tom Riggs guy to pull 49.4% in the 10th?  People around here didn't have that race on their radar.  (also, looks like Haugen's in serious trouble this year)

I can't explain it. I did not expect him to do so well at all. In fact, I think I encouraged my dad (we generally talk about these things) to vote for Hayes as I assumed he'd win, and Hayes had a much stronger resume. I mean, it was a park ranger going against a veteran high-ranking sheriff. I guess Riggs is also the president of the Island County Chamber of Commerce, but he didn't advertise that too much. They were both from Camano, but Riggs is winning Island County despite the naval base. Looking at the precinct results, Riggs won both Camano and Whidbey, with 50.3% and 50.9% respectively, and Island is where most of the votes came from, which is why it was close despite losing both Snohomish and Skagit. I wouldn't sleep on Riggs winning in November; he'll have at least two more votes.

As for Haugen, yeah, I don't expect her to win. Bailey's pretty popular around here, especially in Snohomish. The race could tighten a bit in November, but a five-plus point margin is going to be hard to erase.

[Meeker]

FWIW, the Republicans threw down about 25k in mailers in the Haugen/Bailey race before the primary; the Democrats spent nothing. I think this is Bailey's high-water mark.

They also spent 20k on cable ads against Dawn Morrell and 25k on cable ads against Eric Choiniere. Explains in part their poor showing in part (I anticipate Morrell can make it closer come November; unsure about Choiniere).

[Ogre Mage]

Floyd McKay at Crosscut has a good analysis of the race in WA-1.

http://crosscut.com/2012/08/07/elections/109914/1st-district-fight-delbene-and-koster-finish/

If this were WA-4 or WA-5 we'd probably have to accept a Congresscritter as far to the right as Koster.  But in a swing district like WA-1 there's no reason to.

Fortunately, in DelBene I think we have a candidate with a good chance to win.

[bgwah]

Why can't all counties use the newer SoS-hosted site that has precinct results?

King released their LD breakdown: http://your.kingcounty.gov/elections/2012aug-primary/ElectionNightFinalAbstract.pdf

unfortunately it looks like it's a bunch of incorrect non-sense. Sigh

[Fuzzybigfoot]

2012 legislative primaries in Washington State, 1st positions

[bgwah]

Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Did you just average the results between the Senate and two House races?

No, these are just the results for the 1st house positions.  I'll do a map showing the winners for the 2nd position winners as well.

[Meeker]

The 29th isn't Republican...

[Fuzzybigfoot]

The 29th isn't Republican...

btw Fuzzy, thanks for making this awesome map!  I luv u sooooooo much.  <3 <3 <3

[Jackson]

So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

Edit:Great maps Fuzzy! Although I think you made an error on the senate maps as I'm pretty sure  that the 20th and 2nd districts were won by Republicans.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

So, who do you all think is going to win in November?

I'm sticking with mah man Jay.


And welcome back. 

[Jackson]

Thanks!