Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Meeker]

I can't find a copy online, but a political reporter from the Seattle Times tweeted that the new Elway poll has Dems with "big leads" in all the statewide races sans Governor (where Inslee leads by a more modest 44-41).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Guys, our facebook page only has 2 followers in metro Seattle.  Where are you guys??

https://www.facebook.com/FuzzybigfootsHistoricalElectionMaps?ref=hl

[Fuzzybigfoot]

And if you want to join the site as a contributor or whatever, you can PM me. 

[Alcon]

405 RVs, 9/9-12, Elway Poll

Obama 53%
Romney 36%

Inslee 44%
McKenna 41%

Ferguson 40%
Dunn 27%

Owen 43%
Finkbeiner 27%

Can't find the actual poll, though

[Meeker]

Drew 40%
Wyman 32%

Kelley 36%
Watkins 27%

Goldmark 39%
Didier 29%

[Meeker]

I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

[Alcon]

No ballot measure results?

[Meeker]

Doesn't look like the asked them. Poll probably would've been too long to be manageable.

[minionofmidas]

Washington doesn't have an income tax. Eyeman's initiative is a repeat of his past efforts to require the Washington legislature to have a 2/3 majority to increase any taxes. Basically it constricts their ability to do anything.

58% Pro-Suicide.

[minionofmidas]

The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.

Ah. It helps to read on.

How does that work? It's illegal but you can vote on it anyhow? Seems bizarre.

[Meeker]

The Eyman initiative was declared unconstitutional a few months ago. Passage is kind of irrelevant.

Ah. It helps to read on.

How does that work? It's illegal but you can vote on it anyhow? Seems bizarre.

The 2010 version of the initiative (with the exact same language) was declared unconstitutional. There's nothing to stop it from appearing on the ballot again this year (and again and again) if folks gather the necessary signatures, but it'll be defeated in a court challenge very easily thanks to the precedent established.

(this is all pending an appeal to the State Supreme Court later this month)

[Alcon]

New Lolway Poll, Referendum 74:

Approved 51%
Rejected 37%
Undecided 12%

Preserve Marriage Washington is trumpeting that most measures polling under 60% at this time of year go on to fail.  This is kind of amusing, since in 2009, Elway's September poll showed Referendum 71 passing with only 46% Approved versus 41% Rejected, and 13% undecided.  And that ends my three sentences of pretending that Elway is a serious pollster.

The campaign opposing R-74 has paid for about $1.5 million in ads, so this may not last, but the overall polling seems to suggest that R-74 is doing better now than R-71 as the same period three years ago.

[Seattle]

The campaign opposing R-74 has paid for about $1.5 million in ads, so this may not last, but the overall polling seems to suggest that R-74 is doing better now than R-71 as the same period three years ago.

However, I think the pro R-74 people have quite a bit of additional money for ads, etc.
I'm no fan of Elway polls either, but the SUSA and PPP polls on R-74 have been suspiciously to good to be true....

[Alcon]

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html

Koster 46%
DelBene 42%

...with the policy questions not so great for DelBene.

(SUSA)

[bgwah]

http://www.king5.com/news/politics/KING-5-poll-Koster-has-narrow-lead-over-DelBene-in-1st-District-170117796.html

Koster 46%
DelBene 42%

...with the policy questions not so great for DelBene.

(SUSA)

Obama and Romney are tied in that district? Not buying it.

I'm sure Goldy will have to gloat if DelBene loses. Not that he understands it's safe to cut of 3-5% from what DelBene gets to see what Burner would have gotten.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Yeah, and Koster is tied with women?  LOL

[Frodo]

I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

[Seattle]

They already have solid majorities in both. It's likely that the Dems will lose one or two seats in the Senate, but I think the house will be about even.

[Meeker]

[CultureKing]

Yeah, poor Robby. Things were honestly looking really good for him a few months ago. But now..
This may be one of those places where Romney's poor campaign organization really hurts other candidates (not that Romney would win the state but at least keep enough Republican energized to give Rob a chance).

That being said:

[Meeker]

I'm getting increasingly confident that we're going to win all the statewide offices. Reed and McKenna were able to hold on in 2008 because they were incumbents with crappy opponents. There aren't any Republican incumbents this time around, and in order for a Republican to win statewide in an open seat race they need to get at least 40% in King County (McKenna got 46% in '04, Reed 40% in '00).

Wyman + the Constitution Party candidate got only 31% there in the primary; Dunn + the minor Republican got 38%; Watkins got 34%. Unless something pretty radical shifts, I think the increasingly partisan nature of the electorate is going to work very much in our favor.

How about the legislature?  Will Democrats be able to solidify their majorities in either chamber?

Senate: R's will pick-up the 25th, D's the 5th. The 10th and the 17th are toss-ups. My gut tells me the GOP will win both but we'll see. The 1st, the 2nd, the 19th and the 28th are not actually competitive despite what either side may be saying.

House: R's will pick-up the 17th, Pos. 1, the 28th, Pos. 1 and perhaps the 30th, Pos. 1. D's will likely pick-up the 25th, Pos. 1 and have an outside shot at the 10th, Pos. 2 and the 47th, Pos. 1.

If I were a betting man on this stuff, I'd say a 26-23 State Senate and 54-44 State House

[Fuzzybigfoot]

lol that picture

[Ogre Mage]

PDC complaint targets Kathleen Drew's husband:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/21/2259671/pdc-complaint-targets-thurston.html

Steven Drew response: http://www.theolympian.com/2012/09/24/2262514/assessor-steven-drew-says-he-spoke.html

We'll see if this story has legs.  Right now it is just a he said/she said story.  It will be interesting to see if Wyman tries to use it as an issue attack.

[Alcon]

this changed my life

[greenforest32]

I was wondering when they were going to get to Washington.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/washington-state-womens-rights-and-big-cities/