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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 306353 times)
Meeker
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« Reply #4050 on: November 01, 2012, 12:20:07 pm »
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Final poll from UW has Inslee leading 49-46. Certainly a relief but I'm still very nervous about this race.

http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/11/01/new-washington-poll-inslee-up-narrowly-marriage-equality-just-barely-passing
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« Reply #4051 on: November 01, 2012, 01:07:56 pm »
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Wow, marijuana legalization looks like it's going to pass easily (unless the polls are wrong, which is possible).
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Meeker
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« Reply #4052 on: November 01, 2012, 01:13:56 pm »
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I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).
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Meeker
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« Reply #4053 on: November 01, 2012, 02:00:37 pm »
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(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%
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« Reply #4054 on: November 01, 2012, 02:52:37 pm »
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Obama up "(57-36 among likely voters); Cantwell clobbering Baumgartner (60-33 among likely voters)"

I really think Cantwell has a shot at getting 60%. The Obama margin is also very surprising... I can't imagine Romney doing that badly...


I believe PPP should be coming out with a WA poll too?
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So it goes. heya.
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« Reply #4055 on: November 01, 2012, 03:28:37 pm »
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+21 Obama seems too high, but I don't really know what to expect. I guess +14 sounds about right.
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« Reply #4056 on: November 01, 2012, 04:15:50 pm »
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I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).

I guess the religiouses are focusing all their energy against the marriage amendment. Apparently gays are a bigger threat than drugs these days. Who knew.
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« Reply #4057 on: November 02, 2012, 05:00:55 pm »
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I suspect it will. There's no organized opposition beyond a few medical marijuana activists who claim that the proposal includes too much regulation (and they've raised virtually no money).

I guess the religiouses are focusing all their energy against the marriage amendment. Apparently gays are a bigger threat than drugs these days. Who knew.

Pat Robertson knew!

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/ondeadline/post/2012/03/pat-robertson-legalize-marijuana-and-treat-it-like-alcohol-/1#.UJRCJGl26gM

There's no solid religious foundation to oppose marijuana, and rather than manufacture one, they're actually doing the right thing here. Bizarre, no?
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Meeker
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« Reply #4058 on: November 02, 2012, 05:27:37 pm »
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Newest PPP poll has Inslee leading 49-46, Obama leading 54-44
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« Reply #4059 on: November 02, 2012, 07:35:04 pm »
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Newest PPP poll has Inslee leading 49-46, Obama leading 54-44

PPP has the same governor numbers as the latest UW poll, with Inslee ahead 49-46.  Survey USA had Inslee only at 47%, but all three polls had McKenna stuck at 46%.  Has he hit his ceiling?  The odds favor Inslee but there certainly remains a substantial chance of a McKenna victory.
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« Reply #4060 on: November 02, 2012, 09:13:46 pm »
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Where are the PPP numbers at?
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Meeker
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« Reply #4061 on: November 02, 2012, 09:22:30 pm »
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http://wcvoters.org/files/public-policy-polling-nov-2012
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Meeker
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« Reply #4062 on: November 02, 2012, 10:31:56 pm »
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PPP is apparently going to have another Washington poll tomorrow which will presumably include R-74 and Senate numbers.
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« Reply #4063 on: November 03, 2012, 03:28:59 am »
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(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?
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« Reply #4064 on: November 03, 2012, 03:18:23 pm »
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PPP:

President (Obama +7?!)
Obama 53%
Romney 46%

Governor (Inslee +2)
Inslee 50%
McKenna 48%

Marijuana legalization (Yes +9)
Yes 53%
No 44%

Same-sex marriage (Approve +10)
Approve 52%
Reject 42%

And we're usually so consistent with Presidential polling in WA.  Bizarre
« Last Edit: November 03, 2012, 03:20:19 pm by Grad Students are the Worst »Logged

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« Reply #4065 on: November 03, 2012, 03:20:16 pm »
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How likely is it that they say Obama +7 just to drag down their pro-Dem bias?
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Meeker
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« Reply #4066 on: November 03, 2012, 05:05:03 pm »
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They had Obama +6 in Oregon this morning. Weird.
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« Reply #4067 on: November 03, 2012, 05:57:11 pm »
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Well, I voted today.  Ended up as a No for charter schools and pretty predictable elsewhere
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« Reply #4068 on: November 03, 2012, 06:17:20 pm »
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Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.
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« Reply #4069 on: November 03, 2012, 11:17:09 pm »
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Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

Shut up.
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« Reply #4070 on: November 03, 2012, 11:33:14 pm »
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Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

Nope, they didn't.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #4071 on: November 04, 2012, 02:48:29 am »
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(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?

There may be some truth to that.  The recent UW poll had marijuana legalization failing in Eastern Washington by a fairly narrow margin 45/49.  Same sex marriage was losing by a more decisive 43/52.
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« Reply #4072 on: November 04, 2012, 04:08:32 am »
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Elway had McKenna leading by 2, and if he wins and it goes to a recount, the Dems will steal it again like they did with Gregoire vs. Rossi in 2004.

How many times to I have to say this?  Even our Secretary of State, who is a Republican, said that the results were completely legitimate.  Idiot. 
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politicallefty
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« Reply #4073 on: November 04, 2012, 04:55:58 am »
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(Presumably) final SurveyUSA poll shows:

Inslee: 47%
McKenna: 46%

Obama: 54%
Romney: 40%

Marriage equality - Approve: 52%
Marriage equality - Reject: 43%

Marijuana legalization - Yes: 56%
Marijuana legalization - No: 37%

Wow. For some reason, I'm surprised that marijuana is running pretty far ahead of gay marriage. I think (and certainly hope) that both pass. What is most surprising to me is how strong marijuana legalization is polling, to the point that it looks like a near lock to win.

For those in Washington, do you think the divergence between the two initiatives has to do with Eastern Washington (with it being pro-marijuana and anti-gay marriage)? I would think the marriage equality referendum will get destroyed in the East, while they take a more libertarian view on marijuana. Is that an accurate assumption?

There may be some truth to that.  The recent UW poll had marijuana legalization failing in Eastern Washington by a fairly narrow margin 45/49.  Same sex marriage was losing by a more decisive 43/52.

That's what I thought. I probably really should have said less anti-marijuana, as I doubt either will actually pass in Eastern Washington. I did see the map on medical marijuana, but it seems very unlikely that outright legalization will run that strong. Both initiatives do look strong, especially with both outperforming the President's margin in the PPP poll. I'm almost in a state of disbelief that a state may actually legalize marijuana.
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« Reply #4074 on: November 05, 2012, 01:07:23 pm »
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ADORABLE CHILDREN have voted!

http://www.sos.wa.gov/elections/mock/Results.aspx

Charter schools 50.8%
Gay marriage 67.5%
Marijuana 49.0%
Obama 69.0%
Inslee 57.4%

Schoolchildren split tickets surprisingly often!  Also, amusing how they didn't let those under Grade 6 vote on pot or gay marriage.
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