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| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Virginia)
| | |-+  Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington '17: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 529408 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #4075 on: November 07, 2012, 01:16:10 am »
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All things considered, this was a great night for Washington Democrats. Smiley
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bgwah
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« Reply #4076 on: November 07, 2012, 02:49:44 am »
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So, we lost Haugen, but gained Mullet. And Kastama's seat is gone.

So the Senate will be 26-23 for now, and probably 25-24 once Kilmer's seat is filled, correct? I need Meeker's update!
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Seattle
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« Reply #4077 on: November 07, 2012, 03:07:13 am »
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Finally was able to get onto the site. Lol. Very good night for Democrats and WA dems as well.

Obama looks like he'll be in the +13-15 range. I'm a bit worried about the senate.... Haugen could still pull it through. Not all the votes have been counted.

Cantwell looks like she'll be heading for 59-60%. Inslee should probably win as well, with 50% of King still out and he's already leading 51-49.

Pot looks like it breezed through, and R-74, should follow a similar path as Inslee, but it should get a bit more than he does.
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So it goes. heya.
Seattle
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« Reply #4078 on: November 07, 2012, 09:30:33 pm »
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The forum is still incredibly slow, but I'm dissapointed! Come on WA posters, discuss!

There's about to be a big King county ballot dump at 6:30, I imagine that should raise state totals significantly. It appears all of Spokane county has been counted, Obama lost, by about 4%, but Cantwell won it by .2%. Lol at Baumgartner.

Also, the SOS site keeps showing 100% counted for everything, which is incredibly annoying...
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So it goes. heya.
bgwah
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« Reply #4079 on: November 07, 2012, 09:44:03 pm »
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Oh, it looks like we might pick up the 17th legislative district. Probst (D) is leading Benton (R) by 102 votes. That would mean we break even and stay at 27-22, I guess.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4080 on: November 07, 2012, 09:54:20 pm »
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A pretty small addition from King County. There, both Obama's and Romney's percentages went down a little at the expense of third parties.

McKenna edged up from 37.0% to 37.3%, but Inslee increased his raw vote margin in King by about 10k.
« Last Edit: November 07, 2012, 09:57:08 pm by bgwah »Logged

Thomas D
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« Reply #4081 on: November 07, 2012, 09:56:01 pm »
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Oh, are you Washington Democrats going to steal the Governorship AGAIN? You guys are so mean. Wink
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« Reply #4082 on: November 07, 2012, 10:53:12 pm »
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I'm actually really disappointed that Inslee is beating Mckenna. He would've been a great governor and a good model for future moderate Republican candidates in the state. He was the best chance for a Republican in governor's office and now we'll probably go back to nominating loonies. And Inslee doesn't come off as someone who is very intelligent and is kind of just getting by on being a Democrat, which is also upsetting.
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Economic score: +2.19
Social score: -5.74
Seattle
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« Reply #4083 on: November 07, 2012, 11:30:07 pm »
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Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?
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So it goes. heya.
bgwah
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« Reply #4084 on: November 07, 2012, 11:36:05 pm »
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Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?

Their ballots have to be received by election day. Ours just have to be postmarked by election day. Smiley
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Seattle
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« Reply #4085 on: November 07, 2012, 11:50:25 pm »
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Yikes, how long is it going to take to count all the ballots? I thought major headway would be made today, instead, I think the total percentage counted went up to 58% from 54%.

How is it that Oregon can go through so much faster?

Their ballots have to be received by election day. Ours just have to be postmarked by election day. Smiley

That would make the process much faster. I guess I'm just antsy over R74 numbers and Inslee. Besides, I want to see how well Cantwell ends up doing.
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So it goes. heya.
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« Reply #4086 on: November 08, 2012, 12:30:00 am »
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http://socialistalternative.org/news/article22.php?id=1972
Good result.
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CultureKing
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« Reply #4087 on: November 08, 2012, 01:22:49 am »
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I could see (with time) a serious third party dynamic begin in Washington:

Urban cores (Seattle, downtown Tacoma): Dems vs Greens/socialists
Middlings (70-80% of districts): Dems versus Republicans
Super conservative/rural areas: Republicans vs tea party offshoots/constitution party

..or maybe I am simply dreaming.
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« Reply #4088 on: November 08, 2012, 02:56:48 am »
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I could see (with time) a serious third party dynamic begin in Washington:

Urban cores (Seattle, downtown TacomaRenton): Dems vs Greens/socialists
Middlings (70-80% of districts): Dems versus Republicans
Super conservative/rural areas: Republicans vs tea party offshoots/constitution party

..or maybe I am simply dreaming.
Small fix.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #4089 on: November 08, 2012, 09:30:25 pm »
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It's official -- voters have approved same-sex marriage in Washington.  Let the weddings begin.

http://seattletimes.com/html/politics/2019639905_apusgaymarriage.html

The SoS race between Wyman and Drew is incredibly close.  What do people think will happen?  Wyman may be the sole Republican to win statewide office.
« Last Edit: November 08, 2012, 09:32:51 pm by Ogre Mage »Logged
bgwah
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« Reply #4090 on: November 08, 2012, 09:32:59 pm »
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Wyman will win.

Now that King County is counting ballots faster than it used to, it looks like we'll be returning to later ballots skewing R like they always did before.

Don Benton has a 62 vote lead against Probst now. Oh well...
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« Reply #4091 on: November 08, 2012, 10:54:33 pm »
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What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4092 on: November 08, 2012, 11:15:25 pm »
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Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
bgwah
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« Reply #4093 on: November 09, 2012, 12:27:57 am »
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What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. Tongue
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bgwah
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« Reply #4094 on: November 09, 2012, 12:30:08 am »
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Quote
Democrat Jay Inslee maintained a 50,000-vote lead in the gubernatorial race Thursday night, and despite the long odds against a comeback, Republican Rob McKenna continued to insist he'll close the gap and win as the final votes are tallied.

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2019640707_govrace09m.html

---

Between this and his budget proposals, I guess Rob McKenna is a standard Republican when it comes to arithmetic. Wink
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4095 on: November 09, 2012, 12:35:05 am »
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What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. Tongue

That's pretty sad... We Dems can't even draw a decent map when we hold the governorship and the legislature...

And this whole majority-minority thing is killing the Dems throughout the country. We need to realize that's bullsh*t.
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
bgwah
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E: -1.03, S: -6.96

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« Reply #4096 on: November 09, 2012, 12:50:20 am »
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What's up with Whitman County? Why did it have the largest swing to Romney in the state?

Probably lower turnout among WSU's students.

Pardon my ignorance, but how come the Congressional District map in Washington is so favorable to the GOP? Back in time WA CDs used to be clearly divided by the Cascade Range, with Democrats winning the 7 seats west to it while republicans won the two eastern seats. This time around, it looks like there are two seats which cross this border, and both went republican. Since Washington gained a seat in reapportionment, it seems logical that the East gets more than two seats, and thus a district has to cross the border. But why two instead? And why the GOP seems to be easily ahead in both?

I can't see how the republicans could have passed a gerrymandered map, so... how did democrats agree to this?

Well, bipartisan redistricting tends to give incumbent protection a high priority.

But also, a minority advocacy group lobbied hard for a majority-minority district. The Republicans cleverly realized that if they supported the plan, they could pack a lot of Democrats into it. The Democrats caved. Of course, for our state legislature, when it came to making a truly majority-minority district in Eastern Washington (around 75% non-white, that they could've maybe won by the end of the decade), the Republicans refused and got their way. We talked about it a lot in the redistricting thread. Tongue

That's pretty sad... We Dems can't even draw a decent map when we hold the governorship and the legislature...

And this whole majority-minority thing is killing the Dems throughout the country. We need to realize that's bullsh*t.

It was a painful process to watch, but I'm mostly over it now. I'm just glad DelBene won.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4097 on: November 09, 2012, 12:55:07 am »
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Any chance the legislature changes their mind before 2014?
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Our numbers are dwindling. Our words are confused.
Some of them have been twisted by the enemy
until they can no longer be recognized.

Now what is wrong, or false, in what we have said?
Just some parts, or everything?
On whom can we still rely? Are we survivors, cast
away by the current? Will we be left behind,
no longer understanding anyone and being understood by no one?
Must we rely on luck?

This is what you ask. Expect
no answer but your own.


Bertolt Brecht
Jackson
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« Reply #4098 on: November 09, 2012, 01:23:24 am »
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No.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4099 on: November 09, 2012, 01:35:53 am »
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Any chance the legislature changes their mind before 2014?

Our law mandates bipartisan redistricting that is only done once every ten years.
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