Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[KingSweden]

My bad on SD-41 - I read on Wikipedia that Litzow was "first elected" in 2010.

[publicunofficial]

Is anyone paying attention to the Seattle Mayoral primary?

For those who need brushing up: http://apps.seattletimes.com/elections/2013/mayoral-race-2013/


I for one like Ed Murray and Peter Steinbrueck. I really like Gray, but she doesn't stand a chance.

[Seattle]

Is anyone paying attention to the Seattle Mayoral primary?

For those who need brushing up: http://apps.seattletimes.com/elections/2013/mayoral-race-2013/

Peter Steinbrueck.

Ermm, eww.

[Alcon]

I voted McGinn.  Steinbrueck is a NIMBY, although I'm impressed that he manages to own a $170,000 property in Ravenna, because I didn't know such a thing existed.

It's kind of funny, but among the actually viable candidates, the ones who seem the most personally likable are the ones whose policies I like the least. 

Edit: Also, this is by far the most awkward part of the Seattle Times candidate guide...

[Alcon]

Seriously, what's happened to us?  Even for a terribly boring local primary season, this thread is dead.

My bet on the Seattle Mayor's race: considering that it's an essentially four-way race, I feel it's pretty likely that Murray makes it to first.  My bet would be second for McGinn right now.  I think Harrell has had a good period lately, and may do surprisingly well among undecideds, but his core demographics have pretty terrible primary turnout.  Steinbrueck just doesn't have much of a field/media campaign going, and I'm not sold on the narrative he has the senior vote locked up.

I think Murray is really the only candidate right now who's hitting it on poll numbers, fundraising, voter contact, and demographic turnout.  North Capitol Hill currently has the highest turnout in the city, which isn't unusual, but I think underscores that Murray has some primary turnout advantages.  Then again, the highest-turnout precincts are largely retirement homes, and turnout among seniors is outpacing turnout among young voters by more than usual.  I think the worst news there is actually for McGinn.  Highly progressive, middle-class areas have really lethargic turnout.  Rainier Beach actually has a higher turnout rate than the inner Ballard suburbs right now.

[publicunofficial]

I'm thinking McGinn continues the Seattle tradition of Mayors not surviving the primary.

[Alcon]

I think that's pretty possible...who are you thinking, Steinbrueck or Harrell?  I think there are sane arguments for both to come in 2nd.

[bgwah]

Murray and MGinn to advance to general. A fairly predictable result, IMO.

30.24% Murray
27.15% McGinn
16.26% Steinbrueck
15.48% Harrell

The next Democratic candidate for Governor, Dow Constantine, is dominating the county executive race with 76%.

And in a shocker, decades-long city councilman Don Davidson is in third place in his Bellevue city council race behind two progressives. The margin is small enough he could maybe creep up to second, but Robinson is close to 50%. It's looking like the conservative majority will finally fall. Unfortunately Wallace is in first in his race, leading Kasner 46-42. At least this one will be close.

[publicunofficial]

I think Murray beats McGinn in the general. I'm assuming all of Harrell's and Steinbrueck's support moves over to him.

[Alcon]

Socialist Kshama Sawant had a pretty impressive result (and Brian Carver a pretty terrible one) in the Seattle City Council race.  33% for a socialist in a low-turnout, citywide primary, with a split in the anti-Conlin vote!

At National Night Out tonight, a drunk middle-aged guy accosted me for voting for McGinn (he voted Steinbrueck) and asked if I was "one of those bicycle types."  It was beautiful.

Edit: Oh, also joining McGinn in the probably-screwed category is Nathan Schlitchlgermansomethingter in the 26th, not that that's surprising.

[publicunofficial]

My main problem with McGinn is that while he has good ideas and good policies, he is utterly incapable of putting them in action.

[Seattle]

Socialist Kshama Sawant had a pretty impressive result (and Brian Carver a pretty terrible one) in the Seattle City Council race.  33% for a socialist in a low-turnout, citywide primary, with a split in the anti-Conlin vote!

A Sawant on the council would be really interesting. I think it'd might even be a good thing.

My vote went/is going for McGinn. I don't dislike Murray, but I'm not convinced he offers anything better than what McGinn does. Most importantly, I know exactly where McGinn stands on mass transit issues and pro-density development (SLU upzoning, microhousing). He has a decent record on both.

I think it'll also be interesting to see how many of the 30,000+ new residents in Seattle vote (since the 2009 election). Do these guys even vote since they probably know little about this new city they live in?

[Alcon]

Later ballot returns in Seattle have been somewhat more liberal, as usual: McGinn is beating Murray in them (although definitely not by enough to tie up), and Sawant almost tied Conlin in today's batch.

Elsewhere, Nathan Schlicher continues to fade back toward a ten-digit loss.

[Meeker]

They posted the abstract by LD. Nothing too surprising - McGinn and Harrell doing best in South Seattle, Murray in Central and West Seattle, Steinbrueck in North Seattle.

[Alcon]

This is very stereotyped, but

Murray
11th LD: 19%
37th LD: 24%
32nd LD: 28%
36th LD: 30%
46th LD: 30%
34th LD: 31%
43rd LD: 35%

No great surprises: Murray seems to have received a lot of the "generic liberal Democrat" vote, with his best performance being the areas you'd expect relatively few Harrell (social justice/minority), McGinn (urbanist), or Steinbrueck (anti-urbanist) voters.  One notable feature: Murray's best district -- although also McGinn's best -- contains the parts of Seattle (Capitol Hill and environs) where both Murray (gay marriage) and McGinn (urbanist) and should play best -- and Murray narrowly won.

McGinn
34th LD: 22%
32nd LD: 23%
46th LD: 24%
36th LD: 28%
37th LD: 29%
43rd LD: 31%
11th LD: 32%

The more suburban the area, the worse McGinn did.  On the other-hand, McGinn appears to have some residual strength among voters in very working-class areas.  Does that mean that McGinn might gain some Harrell voters, or is it just that the "urban pioneer" vote in these areas went heavily McGinn, and the social justice/minority vote will be tougher for him?  These were also some of McGinn's better areas in his first run.

Steinbrueck
46th LD: 20%
36th LD: 18%
32nd LD: 18%
43rd LD: 16%
34th LD: 16%
37th LD: 10%
11th LD: 9%

Poor people didn't vote for Steinbrueck, but it's surprising that the pro-urbanist 43rd was in the middle of the pack, along with suburban West Seattle (both around 16%.)

Harrell
37th: 28%
11th: 28%
32nd: 16%
34th: 16%
46th: 15%
36th: 13%
43rd: 9%

Harrell, naturally, did very well in areas of relatively high minority turnout.  He also seems to have done pretty OK among suburban voters (not surprising, considering his reputation as a nice dude.)  His worst performances simply seem to be where Murray and McGinn racked up votes -- maybe areas where Harrell's relative lack of presence (it was much better outside of the core city) discouraged people voting for him for strategic reasons.

********

Conlin
46th: 54%
32nd: 54%
36th: 51%
34th: 50%
43rd: 45%
37th: 45%
11th: 40%

Colin posted pretty mediocre results citywide, although (predictably) did better in more suburban and wealthy areas.

Sawant
43rd: 40%
11th: 38%
37th: 38%
36th: 31%
46th: 28%
34th: 27%
32nd: 26%

Sawant didn't win any districts outright (the 11th was her closest, 38-40) but she didn't tank anywhere despite the presence of...

Carver
34th: 22%
11th: 21%
32nd: 20%
36th: 17%
46th: 17%
37th: 17%
43rd: 14%

...the also-more-liberal-than-Conlin Brian Carver, who got uniformly crushed by Sawant in every LD (the closest result was 26-20 in the 32nd.)

I'm too lazy to post the boring numbers from the boring Shen/Ishii race, besides to say that it looks like a few conservatives voted for Shen, but mostly the discrepancy in Shen races between LD correlates a lot with the Asian population...as does Ishii, who clearly drained a bit of Shen's "Asian name" vote (he got 15% in the 11th, despite the world's craziest Voter Pamphlet statement.)

[Meeker]

One notable feature: Murray's best district -- although also McGinn's best -- contains the parts of Seattle (Capitol Hill and environs) where both Murray (gay marriage) and McGinn (urbanist) and should play best -- and Murray narrowly won.

Murray representing that district (or a variation of it) for 18 years had something to do with that of course. Would be interesting to see the results in an alternative universe where Murray represented the 46th LD.

My sense is that McGinn will pick up the bulk of Harrell supporters and Murray the bulk of Steinbrueck supporters, but I don't really have much hard data to back it up. I'd put Murray as the favorite to win in November, but I think it's still pretty competitive. Those who have been writing McGinn's obituary for the past few months are sorely mistaken, and hopefully they've realized it based on Tuesday's results.

[Meeker]

Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.

[publicunofficial]

Also, I'm fascinated by the Sawant candidacy. The Stranger support and her 2012 campaign obviously helped her in the 43rd, and I'm sure identity politics played a role (only woman and only person of color in the race), but she still did remarkably well given how little money she spent. And given that she self-identified as a socialist on her doorbelling pieces, which I think is still a net negative (but maybe not?).

If she wins... holy cow I cannot wait to see what the Seattle Times does.

Most likely? Get butthurt and write an editorial every time she does anything liberal.

What'll be worth watching is just how mad they get.

[Seattle]

Could Sawant actually win?

I'd love to see a Sawant post-victory Seattle Times rant.

[bgwah]

Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.

[Ogre Mage]

There seems to be very little ideological difference between Murray and McGinn (not unusual for a Seattle race).  It may largely come down to a contrast in leadership style -- McGinn is marketing himself as a progressive fighter, while Murray says he is a consensus builder.  And McGinn will get attacked as a bomb-thrower, while Murray will be painted as a tool of the Seattle establishment.

It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, the Whole Foods curveball that McGinn threw into the race will have.  Did that help gin up support for McGinn in the primary?  I think Murray came out the loser in that exchange because he wound up looking like a hypocrite -- never a good place to be.  Still, I think Murray is modestly favored to win.  It seems like McGinn has just made too many enemies.

[bgwah]

McGinn got 27% on election night in both 2009 and 2013.

           2009   2013   Change
LD11   23.55%   31.72%   8.17%
LD32        -         23.09%       -
LD34   25.78%   22.42%   -3.36%
LD36   28.20%   27.53%   -0.67%
LD37   22.94%   29.10%   6.16%
LD43   30.78%   31.24%   0.46%
LD46   24.14%   23.64%   -0.50%
total     26.58%   27.15%   0.57%

Redistricting reduces the usefulness of this comparison. Nevertheless, the pattern is still clear enough - McGinn lost support in North Seattle, but increased it in the SE.

[LastVoter]

Sawant thinks the redevelopment of SLU is a "corporate giveaway," that Seattle needs rent control, that Yesler Terrace's redevelopment is bad, that the ride free area should be brought back, and so on. As a city councilwoman, she would have influence on issues of development and transit. While having a third party member of the city council would be kind of fun from an electoral perspective, she is so wrong on important issues that I would rather see Conlin win.

And Meeker, we are long over-due for a new title.

Amazon should be prevented from building in SLU.

[Meeker]

I plan to calculate the 2009 results by current LD sometime before November. Will post when I do.

[Zioneer]

I'm really interested in Sawant's candiacy; the issues she's running on and the way she's promoting them are fascinating. Also the fact that she's an actual socialist (without Bernie Sander's years and years of elected experience) is interesting as well. I haven't been paying much attention to Washington politics since I moved from my birthplace in Kent, Washington in 1999 (when I was 5), but I've been following Sawant running for office since last year.

Also, she's kind of attractive, if I may note that.