Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Seattle]

I am certainly intrigued by her candiacy as well. I don't like Conlin, but I also do not support any of her views that bgwah stated. Never read much up on Carver, but I have a feeling he was a good candidate (Missed the primaries). Oh well. (Plus, one of his fliers showed his wife and cute, biracial baby - awww, how could you not vote for that family)

[Hnv1]

Kshama Sawant candidacy is making waves all the way across the Atlantic, at least two trotskyists told me about a comrade that they believe is going to be elected 

[Asian Nazi]

I'm really interested in Sawant's candiacy; the issues she's running on and the way she's promoting them are fascinating. Also the fact that she's an actual socialist (without Bernie Sander's years and years of elected experience) is interesting as well. I haven't been paying much attention to Washington politics since I moved from my birthplace in Kent, Washington in 1999 (when I was 5), but I've been following Sawant running for office since last year.

Also, she's kind of attractive, if I may note that.

I've actually met Sawant before (I'm a member of the same organization that she is).  She's awesome.   I don't think that she's going to win, but I can't even describe how excited I would be if she actually pulled this thing off.  We're also running a candidate in Minneapolis (Ty Moore) and Boston (Seamus Whelan (sp?)).

[Alcon]

Fun/boring fact: King County recently split off a precinct in Seattle's Pioneer Square, and the downsized precinct (Sea 37-3416) now has a unique distinction.  In this year's primary, 57% of the voters there were registered as homeless.

[bgwah]

I wonder if it will be Sawant's best precinct?

[Alcon]

Today was certification today.  Precinct results out Friday.

Final results:

Seattle mayor
Murray 42,314 (29.85%)
McGinn 40,501 (28.57%)
Steinbrueck 22,913 (16.16%)
Harrell 21,580 (15.22%)
Staadecker 6,288 (4.44%)
McQuaid 2,546 (1.80%)
Kate Martin 2,479 (1.75%)
Mary Martin 1,498 (1.06%)
Gray 1,318 (0.93%)
Write-in 334 (0.24%)

Seattle City Council Pos. 2
Conlin 60,537 (47.74%)
Sawant 44,458 (35.06%)
Carver 21,107 (16.64%)
Write-in 712 (0.56%)

Seattle City Council Pos. 8
O'Brien 74,372 (58.88%)
Shen 43,053 (34.08%)
Ishii 8,137 (6.44%)
Write-in 753 (0.60%)

Dist. 26 State Senator
Angel [R] 15,627 (54.64%)
Schlicher [D] 12,974 (45.36%)

Don Davidson out in Bellevue; Kevin Wallace leads 46%-42%.

[Meeker]

Davidson didn't submit anything to the voters' guide, which in retrospect is hilarious.

[Alcon]

Conlin
1. Laurelhurst - 69.5%
2. View Ridge - 66.7%
3. Washington Park - 66.5%
4. Hawthorne Hills - 66.1%
5. Madison Park - 65.0%
6. Briarcliff - 64.0%
7. Southeast Magnolia - 62.0%
8. Windermere - 61.4%
9. North Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 59.8%
10. West Queen Anne - 59.4%
...
85. Roxhill - 37.8%
86. Interbay/Gilman - 36.9%
87. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 35.0%
88. Atlantic - 34.5%
89. Pioneer Square - 34.2%
90. Columbia City - 32.3%
91. Central District - 30.4%
92. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 30.0%
93. Georgetown/SoDo - 29.7%
94. South Park - 29.0%

Sawant
1. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 57.7%
2. Central District - 56.8%
3. Georgetown/SoDo - 54.9%
4. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 52.9%
5. Columbia City - 52.3%
6. Madison Valley - 50.3%
7. South Park - 48.8%
8. Atlantic - 48.7%
9. University District - 47.8%
10. Fremont - 46.8%
...
85. Fauntleroy - 22.0%
86. Alki - 21.1%
87. North Beach/Blue Ridge - 20.8%
88. Southeast Magnolia - 20.6%
89. View Ridge - 19.0%
90. Hawthorne Hills - 19.0%
91. Washington Park - 18.7%
92. Madison Park - 16.1%
93. Briarcliff - 15.4%
94. Laurelhurst - 15.2%

Carver
1. Highland Park - 28.2%
2. Interbay/Gilman - 27.3%
3. Roxhill - 26.0%
4. South Delridge - 24.2%
5. West Seattle Junction - 23.6%
6. Riverview - 23.6%
7. International District/Yesler Terrace - 23.1%
8. Westlake - 22.7%
9. Arbor Heights - 22.6%
10. South Park - 22.2%
...
85. Seward Park - 12.8%
86. Bryant - 12.7%
87. Phinney Ridge - 12.7%
88. Leschi - 12.5%
89. Broadway (Capitol Hill) - 12.3%
90. Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 12.1%
91. North Stevens (Capitol Hill) - 11.9%
92. Madison Valley - 11.0%
93. Montlake - 10.2%
94. Madrona - 9.2%

[Alcon]

Precincts:

Colin best
1. Horizon House Retirement Home (First Hill) - 268/324 = 82.7%
2. Mt. Claire Park (Mt. Baker) - 103/133 = 77.4%
3. 27th Ave W & Armour (Southeast Magnolia) - 89/116 = 76.7%
4. Seattle Tennis Club (Washington Park) - 127/166 = 76.5%
5. Park Shore Condominiums (Madison Park) - 104/136 = 76.5%

Conlin worst
1. Seattle University Rianna Apartments (First Hill) - 5/38 = 13.2%
2. Pratt Fine Arts Center (Atantic) - 18/38 = 17.0%
3. Son Shine Inn (Stevens/Cap Hill) - 36/212 = 17.0%
4. Biltmore Apartments (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 18/102 = 17.6%
5. Jet City Improv (U-District) - 14/75 = 18.7%

***

Sawant best
1. Seattle University Rianna Apartments (First Hill) - 27/38 = 71.1%
2. Biltmore Apartments (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 72/102 = 70.6%
3. Seattle University Connolly Center (First Hill) - 102/148 = 68.9%
4. Madison Church in Christ (Central District) - 145/212 = 68.4%
5. Greek Orthodox Church (Broadway/Cap Hill) - 112/164 = 68.3%

Sawant worst
1. Sand Point Country Club (View Ridge) - 11/166 = 6.6%
2. Park Shore Condominiums (Madison Park) - 11/136 = 8.1%
3. Broadmoor Golf Cub (Madison Park) - 17/201 = 8.5%
4. 42nd Ave W & Viewmont Way (Briarcliff) - 15/170 = 8.8%
5. Seattle Tennis Club (Washington Park) - 15/166 = 9.0%

Not a ton of rhyme nor reason to Carver's performance at the precinct level.

[Alcon]

Mayor:

Murray
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 48.0%
North Stevens (Cap Hill) - 44.5%
Washington Park - 42.6%
Portage Bay - 39.5%
Montlake - 39.0%
Downtown - 38.7%
Laurelhurst - 38.1%
East Queen Anne - 37.2%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 36.8%
West Queen Anne - 36.5%
...
North Beacon Hill - 21.1%
Coumbia City - 20.4%
Rainier Beach - 19.4%
Mid Beacon Hill - 18.0%
Dunlap - 17.9%
Georgetown/SoDo - 17.2%
Brighton - 16.2%
Sand Point - 15.7%
Rainier View - 15.0%
South Beacon Hill - 14.4%

McGinn
Georgetown/SoDo - 49.0%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 41.9%
Fremont - 41.8%
West Woodland - 41.0%
Greenwood - 40.6%
Pioneer Square - 40.1%
Central District - 38.7%
Columbia City - 38.6%
North Beacon Hill - 38.1%
Ballard - 38.1%
...
Denny-Blaine - 19.7%
Southeast Magnolia - 18.9%
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 18.8%
Washington Park - 18.4%
Fauntleroy - 18.1%
View Ridge - 17.7%
Alki - 17.2%
Briarcliff - 17.1%
Laurelhurst - 15.8%
Madison Park - 14.1%

Steinbrueck (?!)
South Lake Union - 25.2%
Eastlake - 22.6%
Meadowbrook - 22.5%
View Ridge - 22.4%
Sand Point - 22.0%
West Queen Anne - 21.9%
Lawton Park - 21.0%
Ravenna - 20.9%
Roosevelt - 20.7%
Broadview - 20.7%
...
Central District - 9.4%
North Beacon Hill - 8.9%
Brighton - 8.8%
Mid Beacon Hill - 8.3%
South Beacon Hill - 8.1%
Holly Park/NewHolly - 7.8%
Dunlap - 7.6%
Rainier View - 7.6%
Columbia City - 7.4%
Madison Valley - 7.0%

Harrell
Rainier View - 43.1%
South Beacon Hill - 42.6%
Dunlap - 40.7%
Rainier Beach - 37.1%
Mid Beacon Hill - 33.9%
Brighton - 32.8%
Leschi - 29.2%
Seward Park - 29.2%
Mount Baker - 27.2%
Lakewood - 27.0%
...
West Woodland - 9.7%
Phinney Ridge - 9.1%
Wallingford - 8.8%
Pioneer Square - 8.8%
North Broadway (Cap Hill) - 8.5%
Fremont - 8.0%
Portage Bay - 7.7%
Meridian - 7.5%
Eastlake - 6.8%
Broadway (Cap Hill) - 5.4%

[Alcon]

Too lazy to compile a full list of best precincts, but:

Murray
Best: 52.8% on a North Broadway precinct.
Worst: 0.0% at a Pioneer Square, mostly for transient voters.  2.9% in a Rainier View precinct.

McGinn
Best: 60.5% at a Pike-Pine precinct in Capitol Hill's Broadway neighborhood.
Worst: 6.2% at a Madison Park precinct.

Steinbrueck
Best: 43.0% by Queen Anne Hill's Kinnear Park.  Most of the runners-up were retirement homes.
Worst: Exactly 1.0% on the NewHolly Neighborhood Campus.  No votes at the University of Washington main precinct, either.

Harrell
Best: 52.9% at a Rainier View precinct.
Worst: 1.0% at a Fremont precinct.

Also, Charlie Staadecker placed second in Broadmoor Country Club with over 20% of the vote -- adorable.

[bgwah]

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Mirabella clearly still has a lot of influence over SLU's vote.

So...maps?

[Alcon]

I'll get maps as soon as I can -- time-consuming and need new shapefiles, though.

Random other trivial stuff:

Harrell actually won a few neighborhoods -- Beacon Hill, Brighton, Dunlap, Leschi, Rainier Beach, Rainier View, and Seward Park.  He won a few random precincts here and there, even in some random suburban areas.

Steinbrueck won a small handful of precincts in the Ballard suburbs, Magnolia, Queen Anne, the Mirabella Retirement Home (hence the SLU result), and a few around Lake City.  And the rich precinct south of Seward Park, for some reason.

Charlie Staadecker placed second at Broadmoor Golf Club, with over 20% of the vote.  He beat everyone but Murray, and more than doubled McGinn.  No idea why -- Staadecker lives on First Hill.

Dow Constantine's ass-kicking for County Executive was impressive.  I've only looked at Seattle, but he managed 95% of the vote for the entire neighborhood of Madrona in a four-way primary!  He also won 100-1 in a Northeast Seattle precinct.  There were quite a few other precincts where he broke 95%, too.  (His worst in the city was "only" 51% at the main Yesler Terrace precinct.)

Against Mike O'Brien, Albert Shen won only one neighborhood -- Briarcliff -- but won a range of other highly affluent or Asian precincts.  (My precinct was actually a Shen precinct.)  Primary loser David Ishii (obviously insane) also seems to have gotten some bump from having an Asian last name, and also tended to do well in low-education areas.  O'Brien broke 70% on Capitol Hill and in Georgetown, thanks to The Stranger, and broke 50% in the vast majority of areas.

Parks measure got just under 80% in Seattle.  The measure only struggled in Seattle's poorest precincts, although also underperformed in some conservative areas, with a Magnolia condominium precinct delivering a tie (no losses.)  The measure broke 90% in the Broadway neighborhood, where it also had its strongest precinct (81-3).

In the Ports race, Stephanie Bowman won every Seattle precinct.  The only close one was a random one along Lake Washington in Southeast Seattle.  She broke 90% in several Cap Hill precincts.

Our homeless precinct?  49-23 Sawant, 60-21 O'Brien, 49-17 McGinn.

[Alcon]

Screw adult life, maps coming up tonight.

[Alcon]

Seattle Mayor
Sorry about the crops, not enough time to do them precisely

McGinn is green; Murray is red; Harrell is yellow; Steinbrueck is blue; Staadecker is purple.


McGinn strength:


Murray strength:


Harrell strength:


Steinbrueck strength:

[Alcon]

Seattle City Council
Conlin is red; Sawant is green; Carver is yellow.



County Executive
Red is Constantine; green is Lobdell; yellow is Stewart; blue is Goodspaceguy, who won two precincts.



That triangular Lobdell precinct is really the only non-Constantine precinct with many people (Clay.)  It was 39 Lobdell, 35 Constantine, 12 Stewart, 2 Goodspaceguy.  Seems like a random win (Lobdell lost his home precinct badly.) 

[KingSweden]

Dow Constantine - your 2020 Democratic candidate for Governor

[Alcon]

Seattle Times did a nice interactive map

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021691602_mayormapxml.html

[publicunofficial]

http://www.seattlemet.com/news-and-profiles/publicola/articles/morning-fizz-escalating-list-of-council-endorsements-september-2013

Bruce Harrell has endorsed Ed Murray. Assuming his supporters follow his lead and support Murray as well, McGinn is pretty much finished.

[Alcon]

SurveyUSA: McGinn very slightly unpopular, but Murray cruising

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=cb15a65c-180d-4b15-8eae-dc6ef4ea8555

Murray 52%
McGinn 30%

McGinn job approvals:

Approve 40%
Disapprove 44%

Murray job approvals:

Approve 57%
Disapprove 19%

Seattle right/wrong track:

Right track 44%
Wrong track 39%

I really think this is basically over unless something big happens, and I can't imagine what that would be.

[Meeker]

It's over. I thought there was a chance the bulk of Harrell supporters would go to McGinn but apparently not. I don't expect Murray to win by this much but a 10-point margin in his favor would not surprise me.

[Alcon]

Rough day for congressional copy-checking

[Meeker]

Their finest staff have moved to the official side

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.com/html/localnews/2021898392_kingchargesxml.html

Almost October! Might be the break McGinn needs.

[Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin]

Mark Schoesler of Ritzville has been elected Senate Republican leader.

Woohoo! finally someone from my area gets a little recognition.