Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4725 on: March 16, 2015, 10:40:45 PM »

Washington dems, would Inslee be at all vulnerable? It seems Washington Republicans view him as vulnerable if they're pursuing Hill as hard as they are.

The GOP is simply too unpopular after Bush and some earlier things to win the governorship. Inslee's unpopularity won't be a factor, just as Gregoire was reelected with approval ratings in the low thirties.

To be fair, Gregoire was propped up by a very strong Democratic wave.

Exactly what i already said.. A lot will depend on candidate's personal qualities. For example - if, as in last SoS election, Republican will nominate a candidate able to get decent percentage in King county, and even better - in some other Democratic leaning (Thurston in this particular case) - they can win even in presidential  year.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #4726 on: March 17, 2015, 08:39:14 AM »

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4727 on: March 17, 2015, 09:48:55 AM »

And one reuest for state gurus: i am living abroad now (and, probably, will be in foreseable future), so i am almost completely Internet-based as far as information is concerned. I am interested in opinions (objective) about ideological composition of freshmen in state legislature. Such information is not especially easy to find, and wait 2 years until someone, like Boris Shor, will update his legislative database is a long time. It seems to me, that Democratic politicians in the state (with glaring exceptions of Tim Sheldon and, may be, Christopher Hurst) are, generally, follow moderate-liberal to very liberal line, and that seems true about freshmen too, but i may be wrong. What about republican freshmen? I heard someone, like Melanie Stambaugh, be called "pro-choice moderate". Is it really so? In the past state has good numbers of reasonable moderate republicans, but, as in almost all states, they became much scarcer of recently, being pressed heavily by right-wingers.

Melanie Stambaugh is definitely our most interesting new GOP freshman. Only 24 and a former local beauty queen, she's probably a name to keep eye on in the South King/Puyallup area. Not sure how familiar you are with geography, but that's roughly where WA-10 and WA-8 come together. Her future is probably at the state level, though. She'll probably be her LD's Senator within 5-10 years.

I know geography (including those of Washington state) fairly well, though, of course, not as good as local denizens do. Thanks for info, but what about other freshmen?

Not many I can think of off the top of my head. That Miloscia fellow is an odd duck, a fervent social conservative but very left-wing on economic issues (former Dem, now a Rep). You don't see too many like him anymore. Doubtful he survives 2018 regardless of national mood, he benefited from a poor candidate last year.

Again - thanks!
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4728 on: April 16, 2015, 03:27:20 PM »

State Auditor Troy Kelley has been indicted for tax evasion.

Inslee is calling on Kelley to resign.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4729 on: April 17, 2015, 02:25:04 AM »

State Auditor Troy Kelley has been indicted for tax evasion.

Inslee is calling on Kelley to resign.

Auditor for tax evasion? Well, almost funny...
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4730 on: May 12, 2015, 02:10:27 PM »

Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission.

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.
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« Reply #4731 on: May 12, 2015, 02:38:11 PM »

Bill Byrant won't seek re-election to the Seattle Port Commission.

Bryant has statewide aspirations, and might run against Inslee in 2016. He's likely retiring from the commission to avoid losing re-election, which might hurt his statewide credentials.

There are definitely better candidates than he. Hasn't Reichert been rumored to be planning on challenging Inslee? Either way, Inslee should be able to beat both.
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bgwah
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« Reply #4732 on: May 16, 2015, 12:23:01 PM »

Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed Tongue)
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4733 on: May 16, 2015, 02:55:26 PM »

Balducci challenging Hague for King County Council seat

Hague has had some extraordinary luck running against sub-par opponents in the past. Looks like her luck is finally running out.

(this news is a few months old at this point but I only just noticed Tongue)

Possibly strongest opponent, but Hague is far from being finished..
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4734 on: May 18, 2015, 09:09:14 PM »
« Edited: May 19, 2015, 01:18:33 AM by publicunofficial »

Seattle's City Council elections this year will be interesting. In previous elections, the council's 9 members were elected citywide with 4 year terms. In 2013 however, voters approved a measure to change this system into 7 individual districts, plus 2 seats that remain citywide. The current make-up of the City Council is 8 Democrats, 1 Socialist. As with most Seattle elections, most of the council elections will be between candidates representing different factions of progressives.



The main issues at play in Seattle generally revolve around keeping the city affordable for the average working man, something that's become difficult as tech companies attract rich software workers to the city, driving up rent costs even as more and more housing buildings crop up.

I have prepared a brief break-down of all 9 races, districts and candidates:


District 1
Southwest/West Seattle (Delridge, South Park, Highland Park)

Shannon Braddock - Chief of Staff to county councilor Joe McDermott, running on transportation issues.
Pavel Goberman - Crazy person, ran against Jeff Merkely in 2014, has a great website
Amanda Kay Helmick - Community activist
Lisa Herbold - Licata staffer, focusing on housing issues
Chas Redmond - Some dude
Arturo Robles - Some dude
Jody Rushmer - Some dudette
Phillip Tavel - Attorney, primarily for children
Brianna Thomas - Activist, heavily involved in SeaTac minimum wage fight.
Karl Wirsing - Some dude

Longtime councilmember Nick Licata is not running for re-election, causing a wide array of candidates to run for this seat some of whom have already dropped out. Despite the long list of names, the only two that really are worth watching are Braddock and Herbold.

District 2
Southeast Seattle (Beacon Hill, Georgetown, Rainier Valley, Rainier Beach)

Josh Farris - Activist, involved with Occupy Seattle and anti-foreclosure movements.
Bruce Harrell - Incumbent
Tammy Morales - Community activist, decently influential.

District 2 consists of the blue-collar Southwest Seattle, and is the only district that is not majority white. This is mainly a battle between Morales and Harrell. Morales has criticized Harrell for flip-flopping on issues (often voting the opposite of what he publicly said he would) and has also gone hard after Harrell for being to cushy with the Seattle Police Department. Harrell, who also chairs the city's Public Safety Committee, has taken fire as many excessive force cases being dismissed outright, with one officer who was investigated 18 times in a three-year period being allowed to retain his job. It's an issue that will likely have a lot of pull in this part of town, and Harrell has stepped up his criticisms of SPD as of late. Farris is a long-shot candidate, but has pushed the race to the left in certain areas like rent-control.

District 3
Capitol Hill + Central District

Pamela Banks - Urban League president, backed by Mayor Murray, Bruce Harrell, & Tim Burgess.
Morgan Beach - Women's rights activist
Lee Carter - Community activist
Rod Hearne - LGBT rights activist
Kshama Sawant - Incumbent. You know her already.

Capitol Hill is considered the "gay" part of Seattle, and it's politics are about as liberal as you find in America. This election is essentially a referendum on Sawant, the lone Socialist on the council who everyone either adores or despises. Sawant's supporters are vocal, and turn up at every council meeting to make themselves heard. Her opponents are forced to define themselves against Sawant, with their main attacks being that she is divisive, and too focused on socialist revolution to actually do her job. With Mayor Ed Murray making his dislike of Sawant known, this has also turned the election into a establishment vs. activist battle. Sawant recently picked up the endorsement of Mike McGinn, who Murray defeated in 2013.

District 4
Northeast Seattle (University District, Ravenna, Eastlake, most of Wallingford)

Jean Godden - Incumbent
Rob Johnson - Urban planner, transportation activist
Michael Maddux - Paralegal, park activist
Abel Pacheco - Some dude
Tony Provine - Neighborhood activist

An odd district; District 4 is both urban and suburban, the highest level of education, but the 2nd poorest district overall. Voters here tend to be liberal, but risk averse. Much of the population are renters and University of Washington students, both of whom are have very low turnout in local elections. Jean Godden is the incumbent here, and is probably the most vulnerable of all the council members. Although a strong liberal by most measures, Godden has gained a reputation as one of the more conservative members of the council as the council has been pushed left recently by members like Sawant and Mike O'Brien. Godden is a close ally of Mayor Murray as well, to the point that some have criticized her for being a rubber stamp who has come to parrot Murray's plans and ideas. Godden has a strong feminist streak, something she's used to make liberal activists happy in the past. It might not save her this time though as a recent straw poll  had Godden in dead last; losing to Maddux and the well-funded Rob Johnson. Godden has a strong money advantage, and the heavy support of the Mayor, but we'll see if that's enough.

District 5
North Seattle (Northgate + Lake City)

Sandy Brown - Former pastor, activist for the homeless
Debadutta Dash - Some dude
Mercedes Elizalde - Low-Income Housing Institute member
Debora Juarez - Blackfeet Tribe member, activist
Kris Lethin - Realtor
Hugh Russell - Some dude
David Toledo - Businessman, activist
Halei Watkins - Planned Parenthood organizer

None of the current Council members are running here, leaving it wide open. No major issues here, and as such this is probably going to be a boring race. Sandy Brown is probably the frontrunner, with Elizalde, Watkins, and Juarez also in the mix.

District 6
Green Lake to Golden Gardens, includes Ballard, Fremont.

Jon Lisbin - Some dude
Mike O’Brien - Incumbent
Stan Shaufler - Some dude
Catherine Weatbrook - Neighborhood activist

O'Brien is a solid progressive, who gives his district little reason to complain. He's fought hard for environmental issues and public campaign financing, and is currently pushing a proposal to charge developers linkage fees in order to help pay for affordable housing. Weatbrook is his only competition, but O'Brien should cruise to re-election fairly easily.

District 7
Downtown through Discovery Park (Queen Anne, Magnolia, South Lake Union)

Sally Bagshaw - Incumbent
Gus Hartmann - Google engineer
Deborah Zech-Artis - Some dudette

The urban core of Seattle. Bagshaw has massively outraised her only opponent in Hartmann, and will likely win re-election easily.

District 8
Citywide Position

Tim Burgess - Incumbent, Council President
Jon Grant - Former Tenants Union executive director
John Persak - Longshoreman, some dude but has a decent amount of $$$.
John Roderick - Musician, played with Death Cab for Cutie!

A fun race. Burgess, the Council President, has led the fight for universal Pre-K but is otherwise the council's most conservative member by far. His main opponent is Jon Grant, a far-left firebrand who has heavily taken aim at Burgess. The list of complaints about Burgess include a controversial anti-panhandling measure, opposing tent encampments for homeless, the blocking of various campaign finance reform measures, and Burgess' support for the downtown tunnel project. Roderick is also a contender, and has raised vast sums of money to rival Burgess.

District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner
Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4735 on: May 18, 2015, 11:12:27 PM »

Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are betweeen generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4736 on: May 18, 2015, 11:17:19 PM »

Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are between generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.


True, but there's very few areas in the US where such progressive on progressive races take place. Even in cities like New York and Chicago, there are still conservative areas and candidates. There are so many places where the elections are a race to the right, Seattle is one of the few cities where candidates can run as far to the left as they want.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4737 on: May 19, 2015, 05:36:40 AM »

Thanks for detailed break-down. The only qualm i have - in such left-wing city all fights are between generally similar (i stress the word "generally") candidates: left and far left. Of course - they may be different on some local issues, but except that - essentially we have Tweedledee vs. Tweedledum here. For election observers outside of Seattle there is little difference between them.


True, but there's very few areas in the US where such progressive on progressive races take place. Even in cities like New York and Chicago, there are still conservative areas and candidates. There are so many places where the elections are a race to the right, Seattle is one of the few cities where candidates can run as far to the left as they want.


San Francisco, Oakland, Portland, Detroit, Boston (mainly)?
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publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #4738 on: May 19, 2015, 11:45:23 AM »

Whoops, silly me. I forgot that races aren't worth talking about unless there's a minimum of 3 moderates in the running.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #4739 on: May 19, 2015, 12:30:07 PM »

Whoops, silly me. I forgot that races aren't worth talking about unless there's a minimum of 3 moderates in the running.

I never said that. But i prefer to have at least one....))
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« Reply #4740 on: May 19, 2015, 06:40:24 PM »


District 9
Citywide Position

Alon Bassok - Urban planner

Bill Bradburd - Community activist, opponent of micro-housing
Lorena González - Former civil rights attorney, legal counsel to the mayor
Omari Tahir-Garrett - Africatown activist, Sawant ally, focused on gentrification
Thomas Tobin - Some dude
Alex Tsimerman - Local nutcase

Another vacant race, this race will likely come down to a battle between Gonzalez and Bradburd. Gonzalez is backed by Mayor Ed Murray, and has also gained praise as a immigration activist and for her representation of a Latino man who was beaten and threatened by Seattle Police in 2010.


I took a class taught by Alon at the UW! I had no idea he's running. He's the urbanist in that race and he'll certainly be getting my vote.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4741 on: August 03, 2015, 03:33:34 PM »

Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4742 on: August 03, 2015, 05:33:19 PM »

Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4743 on: August 03, 2015, 05:54:00 PM »

Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?
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Alcon
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« Reply #4744 on: August 03, 2015, 06:04:09 PM »

Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

I'm in D7...hopefully your Council race is more interesting than mine!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4745 on: August 03, 2015, 06:08:11 PM »

Bump for primaries tomorrow.

Anybody send in their ballots yet?

Yep.

Are you in Seattle?  I didn't expect our new City Council elections to be game-changers for turnout, but I didn't quite expect the near record low showing we're getting either.

Yes. Where are you getting turnout numbers?

https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/ballotreturnstats/default.aspx

I'm in D7...hopefully your Council race is more interesting than mine!

I'm also in 7, so sadly, no.
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Alcon
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« Reply #4746 on: August 03, 2015, 06:14:04 PM »

Small, boring world Grin
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Crumpets
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« Reply #4747 on: August 05, 2015, 01:49:29 PM »

So after last night's ballot count, it looks like:

- LD 30 is neck-and-neck between Carol Gregory (D) and Teri Hickel (R), which is almost certainly good news for Gregory, even if she's about 100 votes behind at this point.
- Courtney Gregoire will skate to re-election as Port Commissioner position 2, and will probably go against Goodspaceguy in November
- Fred Felleman and Marion Yoshino will move on to the general election for Port Commissioner position 5
- Julie Wise is leaving her competition in the dust for Director of Elections, in an impressive showing for an open seat.
- Seattle City Council District 1 (West Seattle) will likely have Shannon Braddock and Lisa Herbold move on to the general election.
- Bruce Harrell will in all likelihood win re-election in District 2 (Southeast Seattle)
- Comrade Sawant is barely below a majority in District 3 (Capitol Hill), but leading her closest challenger, Pamela Banks, by over 14 points - good news for Sawant.
- Incumbent Jean Godden may not even make the general in District 4 (Wallingford, U-District, Ravenna, Sand Point). Rob Johnson and Michael Maddux are currently in first and second place.
- Deborah Juarez and Sandy Brown will move on to the general in District 5 (North Seattle, Lake City).
- Mike O'Brien will likely face Catherine Weatbrook in District 6 (Ballard) and looks well-placed to win re-election.
- Sally Bagshaw is dominating in District 7 (Magnolia, Queen Anne, Downtown) and will probably face Deborah Zech-Artis in November
- Tim Burgess will be held to a plurality for Position 8 (city-wide), but still leads John Grant by 20 points.
- Lorena Gonzales is pulling over 60% in Position 9 (city-wide), an open seat with 5 other candidates in the race, so hats off to her!
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Alcon
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« Reply #4748 on: August 05, 2015, 08:43:35 PM »

It looks like Godden is out.
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muon2
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« Reply #4749 on: August 16, 2015, 10:11:50 PM »

I didn't have a lot of time in Seattle during my trip, but spent most of the run up to the election north of Bellingham. There were lots of signs there, and one aspect of them caught my eye. A large number were mounted on wooden posts and frames. That's virtually unknown in the Midwest except for amateur posts. Almost all campaign signs in my home area are on wire frames (for plastic bag or folding paper) or wire posts (for corrugated plastic).

PS Bummer that the election kept me from meeting Alcon.
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