Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Asian Nazi]

It's amazing how few people in Washington outside of the  most politically well-informed know who Tim Eyman is and how awful his proposals are. Every single one of them are tax initiatives that sound like common sense until you take a second to think about it. Which of course most voters don't.

Infuriates me to think of how many people think stuff like "2/3 majority to raise taxes" and "All tax increases have to be approved by the public" are legitimately smart ideas.

I think he's fairly well-known by anybody who follows local news at all.  I certainly had heard of him before I became an election nerd at least.

But yeah, he's a huge HP and has singlehandedly destroyed my support for direct democracy.

[Asian Nazi]

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/01/23637993/trans-activist-danni-askini-is-running-for-the-washington-state-legislature

Since he declared his candidacy for the WA-7, the race to replace Brady Walkinshaw's ultra-liberal Seattle-based State House Seat (WA-43) is getting crowded.  Today, trans activist Danni Askini entered the race, aiming to become the first openly trans person ever elected to the Washington State Legislature.  

Other candidates include "housing advocate Nicole Macri, LGBT advocate Thomas Pitchford, environmental advocate Sameer Ranade, and lawyer Dan Shih" (all Democrats, obviously).  

I don't know enough about the inner workings of Seattle politics to predict how this race will shake out.  



EDIT: It's also March already, we should get a new thread title!

[KingSweden]

https://www.thestranger.com/slog/2016/03/01/23637993/trans-activist-danni-askini-is-running-for-the-washington-state-legislature

Since he declared his candidacy for the WA-7, the race to replace Brady Walkinshaw's ultra-liberal Seattle-based State House Seat (WA-43) is getting crowded.  Today, trans activist Danni Askini entered the race, aiming to become the first openly trans person ever elected to the Washington State Legislature.  

Other candidates include "housing advocate Nicole Macri, LGBT advocate Thomas Pitchford, environmental advocate Sameer Ranade, and lawyer Dan Shih" (all Democrats, obviously).  

I don't know enough about the inner workings of Seattle politics to predict how this race will shake out.  



EDIT: It's also March already, we should get a new thread title!

Should call it something pithy related to Jay Inslee and what a dull hack he is.

[publicunofficial]

Brad Owen is not seeking another term as Lieutenant Governor. He's been LG since 1996.


Only state official I've seen in person, as he came to my middle school to give an assembly on not doing drugs. It sucked.

[Asian Nazi]

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So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

[Asian Nazi]

So our edgy Governor followed through with his threat and vetoed all 27 bills on his desk this morning after the State Legislature failed to pass a budget.

The reaction was about what you'd expect.

[KingSweden]

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So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.

[KingSweden]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So on the Democrat side, we have one candidate from the Eastside (Habib), one candidate from South Puget Sound (Fraser), one candidate from Southern Washington (Moeller), and possibly one candidate from Snohomish County (Hobbs).  Gotta wonder if a Seattle Democrat will jump in the race, too. 

I imagine Habib, the Democratic Senate Whip, will be the favorite.  He's blind, Persian, and a rising star in the state Democratic Party.

Habib is an easy favorite, which concerns me - we have no margin for error in the State Senate, and his district once elected Rodney Tom.

[publicunofficial]

Jim Hargrove (My state senator) is retiring. State Rep. Kevin Van De Wege of Sequim (My hometown!) will run to replace him. Clallam County Commissioner Mike Chapman will run to replace Van De Wege. The Olympic Peninsula is fairly conservative, but it favors Democrats at a local level. I expect both Van De Wege and Chapman to win. Van De Wege is fairly conservative, but will be a big improvement over Hargrove.

Fun Fact: Chapman got his political start as a Republican, when he beat my grandmother for her seat on the county commission. The main issue my grandmother lost over? Wanting to ban billboards in the county.

[KingSweden]

Jim Hargrove (My state senator) is retiring. State Rep. Kevin Van De Wege of Sequim (My hometown!) will run to replace him. Clallam County Commissioner Mike Chapman will run to replace Van De Wege. The Olympic Peninsula is fairly conservative, but it favors Democrats at a local level. I expect both Van De Wege and Chapman to win. Van De Wege is fairly conservative, but will be a big improvement over Hargrove.

Fun Fact: Chapman got his political start as a Republican, when he beat my grandmother for her seat on the county commission. The main issue my grandmother lost over? Wanting to ban billboards in the county.

Local politics really hinge on odd issues sometimes

[KingSweden]

Peter Goldmark is retiring from office of Land Commissioner. This is actually an office I could see some Republican from Eastern WA winning fairly easily with a knowledge of rural issues - not many rural Dems left with chops outside of Goldmark

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

[Crumpets]

Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

I suspect he'll win easily. If Reichert or McKenna run for his seat (both of which I doubt) it might be within single digits. But he's had a fairly innocuous tenure so far, and hasn't really done much to upset anybody, so I say he probably wins with around 15% of the vote.

[smoltchanov]

Is Inslee expected to have a close race or is this going to be the first blowout in 16 years?

I suspect he'll win easily. If Reichert or McKenna run for his seat (both of which I doubt) it might be within single digits. But he's had a fairly innocuous tenure so far, and hasn't really done much to upset anybody, so I say he probably wins with around 15% of the vote.

Well, with Cruz and Trump both unpopular in state - may be, but 8-10% seems more realistic range to me...

[cwt]

Here are the margins for the last 3 elections:

2004: Gregoire +0.005, Kerry +7.18

2008: Gregoire +6.48, Obama +17.17

2012: Inslee +3.08, Obama +14.87

[publicunofficial]

Former Seattle sportscaster Tony Ventrella has been recruited to run against Dave Reichert in WA-08.

Ventrella has been talked about as a possible candidate for several cycles, but his stated intention of refraining from PAC money or large donations is worrying. But he has name rec, and has good charisma. He works fairly good as wave insurance in a 50-48 Obama '12 seat.

[KingSweden]

Former Seattle sportscaster Tony Ventrella has been recruited to run against Dave Reichert in WA-08.

Ventrella has been talked about as a possible candidate for several cycles, but his stated intention of refraining from PAC money or large donations is worrying. But he has name rec, and has good charisma. He works fairly good as wave insurance in a 50-48 Obama '12 seat.

I was worried we'd only have a warm body here, so this is good. I'd feel a lot better if he was running under the old map, though.

[KingSweden]

Fun times in Spokane Valley, which is now run by a city council majority that has ties to the militia movement and two of the remaining "moderate" Republicans have now retired, paving the way for a supermajority. Nobody has really been able to pin down what this majority's agenda is, but expect the usual Agenda 21 and other militia-flavored stuff. Noted nutcase State Rep. Matt Shea is tight with a lot of these guys.

I have a hard time thinking of anywhere else in this state where the GOP divide is between standard movement conservatives and legit militiamen/Bundyists. The Spokane County GOP is defined by these divisions, with Sheriff Ozzie and Mayor Condon in Spokane being the big fish on the "governing" side of this divide.

[RI]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

[Türkisblau]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

You are the 1%.

[publicunofficial]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

That was the first ballot I ever threw in the trash.

[Asian Nazi]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

That was the first ballot I ever threw in the trash.

Yeah was gonna troll vote for Carson but couldn't be arsed.

[KingSweden]

My wife and I voted for Kasich today.

I don't know if we're going to send ours in

[publicunofficial]

Chris Vance has no chance of unseating Murray this election, but to his credit, he is on the #NeverTrump train.

[publicunofficial]

Dems have a candidate for WA-03! State Rep. Jim Moeller has declared.

Moeller is a solid liberal who is definitely an underdog in an R+1 district, but it's nice to have a warm body here.