Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

WA certified results: http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/default.htm

[Pragmatic Conservative]

Bill Bryant will not vote for Trump in November

http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2016/aug/15/bryant-breaks-silence-says-he-wont-vote-for-trump/

[Seattle]

Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn)
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades)
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.

[Alcon]

Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

I combined party vote for U.S. Senate and Governor and lumped obvious minor-party candidates with who they'd likely flow to (so the socialist candidate goes to the Ds).

U.S. Senate
The overall U.S. Senate result is 59.49% D, 36.13% R (D+23.36%).

Ds win all the Obama counties plus Whitman (53-41), Wahkiakum (52-43), Spokane (51-43), Walla Walla (49-45), Okanogan (48-46), Skamania (48-47), and Asotin (48-47).  

Murray has long had special appeal to working-class voters outside the Metro, but her results here are a little weird.  The Skamania result is weak, and neighboring Klickitat voted R (46-49) despite being an Obama 2008 county.  This is a strange result, especially while Asotin votes D and Pend Oreille is less Republican (45-47).  Both those counties are even more conservative and working-class than Klickitat, and it's been much longer since either voted D.  I'm not going to overthink this, since Inslee's performance in Klickitat and Skamania is more normal.

Beyond that, the biggest news is that the GOP is going for a modern record low in King County, which is 73-24 D in final returns.

As in the Presidential Preference Primary, the most GOP county is again Lincoln (35-59)...but not a single R>60 county.  (And the only other D<40 counties were Adams, Douglas, Grant, Lewis, and Stevens.)

Outside of King, top Democratic cities are Port Townsend (85-11), Langley (85-12), Mabton (84-13), and Bainbridge Island (81-17).  Port Townsend even has a 3.8% Republican precinct.

Governor
The overall Governor result is 55.31% D, 42.75% R (D+12.56%).

Inslee took all of Obama's 2012 counties, minus Cowlitz (47-50) and a really embarrassing showing in Mason (46-52).  The strong margins for Democrats this year didn't come from working-class white counties.

Inslee's margin was driven by a huge victory in King, 69-29.  This isn't far from Obama's margins, and is a crazy high number for a primary.  King County just slaughtered statewide Republicans this year.

Again, our most GOP county is Lincoln (27-71).

Our most Democratic cities outside of King are basically the same: Langley (85-15), Port Townsend (84-15), Mabton (84-16), Bainbridge Island (79-20), and Wapato (78-20).

A pretty telling result for the state of the GOP in educated suburbs: the Democrats lead in the GOP-leaning towns of Camas (51-47), Ridgefield (49-49), and Woodway (51-48).  All three voted for Romney last time.  There is some chance the Democrats will even lead this race in Medina when the abstract comes out tonight.  At minimum, it will be close.  My guess is this is more about the toxicity of the GOP national brand in these areas than it is about Inslee.

[interesting blip: the City of Walla Walla swung hard Dem this year, voting 57-37 D for Senate and 50-48 D for Governor.  This is weird, since I believe it's a Romney and McCain town.  Maybe primary turnout dynamics?  Seems like an area where the general-only voters might be more R.]

Attorney General
Just think it's funny that the Libertarian candidate managed to pull 49.81% in Stevens County.

While it's not obvious in King County (83-17), I get the impression that Ferguson may have irritated some rural hippies?  It's a small number of votes, but he was actually the lowest-performing Democrat in and around Index, the super-liberal area of Stevens Pass.

Unsurprisingly, the only non-tiny place the Libertarian won was Lynden (48-52).

[RI]

Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

Don't worry; I'm already on it.

[KingSweden]

Some notes on competitive races:

LD 30 (South King County, Federal Way + parts of Auburn)
Mike Pellicciotti (D) leads incumbent Rep Linda Kochmar (R) 52.3% - 47.7%. (yikes...)
Kristine Reeves (D) leads incumbent Rep Teri Hickel (R) 50.16% - 49.84%.

LD 5 (Sammamish ($$$) and other $$ - $$$ exurbs bleeding into the Cascades)
Rep Chad Magendanz (R) challenges incumbent Senator Mark Mullett (D), but trails 50.69% - 49.31%.
Incumbent Rep Jay Rodne (R) leads Jason Ritchie (D), who lost in WA-8 in 2014, 54.4% - 45.6%.
Vacated rep seat by Magendanz is being fought by Darcy Burner (D), ran for WA-8 in 06 and 08 and Paul Graves (R). The two way D vote is 53.72% - 46.28% (Hello Rep Burner).
This district is going to see one of the biggest swings away from Romney in WA and if Rs are going to be pulled down anywhere, its here.

LD 10: Whidbey Island + some farms
Incumbent Senator Barbara Bailey (R) leads 51.48% - 48.52% the two-way D vote. I have no idea if Angela Homola (D) is a good candidate, but this will be close.

LD 26: Gig Harbor and parts of the Kitsap Peninsula
Larry Seaquist (D) might just make a comeback here, he was defeated in 2014 in the other House position. The two-way R vote narrowly beats out the D vote: 50.29% (R) - 49.71% (D).

LD 28: Tacoma suburb Lakewood + JBLM + some seriously downscale exurbia
A competitive district that I believe Obama has won twice...
Incumbent senator Steve O'Ban (R) leads Marisa Peloquin (D) 53.62% - 46.38%.
Incumbent Rep Dick Muri (R) leads Mari Leavitt (D) 52.88% - 47.22%.
Incumbent Rep Christine Kilduff (D) leads 50.85% - 45.88% (R) - 3.28% (L)

LD 17: Outer parts of Vancouver and suburban Clark County
Senator Don Benton is retiring and Lynda Wilson (R) and Tim Probst (D), both former or current Reps from the 17th are vying for the spot. It'll be very close. 50.11% (R) - 49.89% (D). (A must win for Ds if they want to take back the senate).
In the race to replace Wilson, Sam Kim (D) and Vicki Kraft (R) lead a very split field. 51.86% (D) - 48.14% (R).

LD 41: Mercer Island + Bellevue
The ultimate must win for Ds and a district that will be very inhospitable to Trump. The combined D vote in the house was ~65%. It's going to be hard for Incumbent senator Steve Litzow (R) to win.
Lisa Wellman (D) leads Litzow 48.79% - 47.29% - 3.92% (L).

Finally, guaranteed R pickup in the House from LD 31 (the last rural farming parts of king/pierce), where Christopher Hurst is retiring.
JD Rossetti (D), appointed to LD 19 (Southwest WA + Coast) did not make it through a very crowded primary. Ds are still safe here, getting ~56% of the vote.
Guy Palumbo (D) upset Rep Luis Moscoso (D) in the race for the senate seat in LD 1. Safe D though, 60% D - 40% R in the primary.

I think the Ds take Benton and Litzow's seats, Bailey narrowly hangs on and Mullet winds up winning narrowly.

[Alcon]

Unfortunately I'm on a dumb Linux computer so I can't properly make maps, but I'm processing the final precinct results and have every county but King (will have today) and Wahkiakum (idk they're terrible).

Don't worry; I'm already on it.

!

[RI]

First few maps--

WA-01:


WA-03:


WA-04 (Blue is Newhouse, Green is Didier):


WA-05:


WA-07 (Red is Jayapal, Blue is Keller, Green is Walkinshaw, Yellow is McDermott):


WA-08 (Red is Ventrella, Green is Ramos, Yellow is Skold):


WA-08, Dems only (Red is Ventrella, Green is Ramos, Yellow is Skold):


WA-10:

[RI]

US Senator (Green is Makus, Orange is Nazarino, Purple is Luke):


Governor:


Lt. Governor (Blue is McClendon, Red is Habib, Green is Fraser, Yellow is Hobbs, Orange is Yin, Purple is Wallace; Figueroa, Penor, and Addis also show up as alt-colors in a couple precincts):


Secretary of State:


State Treasurer (Blue is Davidson, Red is Liias, Green is Waite, Yellow is Comerford, Orange is Fisken):


State Auditor (Blue is Miloscia, Red is McCarthy, Green is Sprung):


Average Total D vs. Average Total R:

[Alcon]

Beautiful as always, RI.

lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.

[RI]

lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.

Ferguson's also an Evergreen alum. Her voter statement is very activist-y and progressive; I'm not seeing any mention of "family values" specifically. Plus she's a black woman running against three white men.

Funnily enough, Wyman only got 1.86% at Evergreen which is the worst of any of the major GOP candidates despite her being by far the strongest of any GOP candidate in Thurston County.

[Alcon]

lol @ Gigi Ferguson handily winning the Evergreen campus.  I wonder what that's about?  It's too many votes to just be random chance, and Ferguson even mentioned "family values" in her voters' statement.   Plus I thought Heck was an alum.

Ferguson's also an Evergreen alum. Her voter statement is very activist-y and progressive; I'm not seeing any mention of "family values" specifically. Plus she's a black woman running against three white men.

Funnily enough, Wyman only got 1.86% at Evergreen which is the worst of any of the major GOP candidates despite her being by far the strongest of any GOP candidate in Thurston County.

Ahh, duh, I was looking at her 2014 pamphlet.  Yeah, her 2016 statement is quite the lefty check-list.

It looks like the Republican candidate for CPL actually fell under 10% In Seattle: D 88.20%, R 9.34%, L 2.46%.  That may be a first for a reasonably credible Republican candidate?  Considering he got 37.95% statewide, it's also a pretty good indicator that Trump may fall below that threshold too.

[RI]

A few quickies (colors are same as above unless mentioned otherwise):

CPL (Red is Franz, Green is Upthegrove, Yellow is Verner)


CPL, D only (Orange is Porterfield, Purple is Stillings)


Auditor, D only (Red is McCarthy, Green is Sprung)


Insurance Comm


Lt. Gov, D only


Treasurer, D only


WA-08, D only

[Alcon]

That McCarthy/Sprung division in King County is kind of awesome.  I haven't seen something quite like that before.

[Anna Komnene]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

[Heisenberg]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

[Anna Komnene]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

I understand that they are different, but my question was why are they in Washington's context?

As for 2012, do you mean polling?  Because Cantwell won her 2012 race by 20 points.

[publicunofficial]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

[/b]

lol no

[Heisenberg]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

lol no

In a D wave year, McKenna gets destroyed.
In a neutral year, he still loses, but only by single digits.
If 2018 is a 2010/2014-type wave, I think he has at least a 45% chance of winning, and at the very least, he will force Democrats to work hard to defend the seat. Baumgartner got less than 40% of the vote in 2012, and Romney barely got a little over 41%. Rob McKenna, on the other hand, got about 48.5% of the vote, and the national environment was against him. That is quite a lot of crossover appeal.

[Alaska2392]

Gubernatorial "debate" was about what I expected.  I wonder how many people actually watched this.

I find both candidates to be completely uninspiring but will end up voting for Inslee.

Candidates not really answering the questions.

For goodness sakes though Bryant, Inslee is not in support of an income tax.  Enough is enough.

Also, lol at Bryant trying to have a big moment by getting Inslee to commit to not raising taxes and getting cut-off by the moderator (since you aren't allowed to directly address your opponent).

[KingSweden]

Bryant is the worst GOP nom since that loon who ran against Locke in the 1990s. Not that he isn't competent or moderate, but who gets excited about some rando Port Commissioner? Keep in mind the port isn't exactly held in high esteem with some shady dealings. McKenna and even Rossi were vastly superior candidates. Hell, I'd vote McKenna again over Inslee

[Seattle]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

Huh? Cantwell got over 60% of the vote. In addition, McKenna, as a sitting state-wide office holder couldn't win against a weaker candidate at the state-level. What makes you think he can do it after being out of office for 6 years, at the federal level? Even if 2018 has a similar environment to 2010, why would the race be anything but a relatively narrow Cantwell win (Murray won by 4.7%)? WA has only gotten more D since then (something to do with Seattle adding 14-15k people a year and the Kingco suburbs completing their political transformation).

[KingSweden]

Not complaining but curious.  How come Murray and Cantwell are so safe (apart from 2010), when it seems as though holding the governor's office has been such a struggle for Gregoire and Inslee?

First, federal races are different from governor races. Also, Republicans did target Murray in 2010, but came short. Remember how Cantwell only barely won in 2000, then had a strong 2006 wave to help boost her margin. In 2012 she significantly underperformed McKenna, who barely lost even as Obama won big. If Clinton wins the election, and is unpopular, a Cantwell vs McKenna race (if they can get him to run) is a toss up, I think.

Huh? Cantwell got over 60% of the vote. In addition, McKenna, as a sitting state-wide office holder couldn't win against a weaker candidate at the state-level. What makes you think he can do it after being out of office for 6 years, at the federal level? Even if 2018 has a similar environment to 2010, why would the race be anything but a relatively narrow Cantwell win (Murray won by 4.7%)? WA has only gotten more D since then (something to do with Seattle adding 14-15k people a year and the Kingco suburbs completing their political transformation).

On that note, it'll be really interesting to see legislative maps next decade

[Alaska2392]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

[publicunofficial]

Since Eastern Washington population growth (except for maybe Tri-Cities) doesn't appear to be especially strong I would expect more influence in the area around Seattle. If the Census Bureau is to be believed Seattle will have gained enough people to have another legislative district inside of it.

I am more interested in how the Congressional Lines will be drawn.  My guess is that Washington won't gain another seat in 2020 - though you never know - so only minor adjustments will have to be made to current boundaries.

Next decade's map will likely be 99% the same as this decades. The bipartisan commission is basically rigged to favor incumbent protection maps. The 1st might get shored up a little, and the 8th might have to get even more twisted to keep Reichert safe.