Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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  Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 837288 times)
publicunofficial
angryGreatness
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« Reply #5400 on: August 03, 2017, 09:01:28 PM »

Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5401 on: August 03, 2017, 09:46:17 PM »

Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5402 on: August 03, 2017, 09:56:03 PM »

Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform

The Times endorsement counts for something. But Nelson never got the full establishment endorsement that Durkan got; Pramila Jayapal, most of the council, and most local Democratic groups endorsed Mosqueda.

Jon Grant heavily considered dropping out when Mosqueda entered the race; even he doesn't see a lot of differences between their campaigns (I've found them to be disagreeing on maybe 3-4 issues).
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ajc0918
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« Reply #5403 on: August 04, 2017, 07:49:09 AM »

Regarding the state senate special election, do you all think the GOP money will stop flowing to Englund since Dhingra got 50%+? Despite the money advantage Dhingra still managed to get a decent margin, although it was less than HRC's in the district(which makes sense since Englund is a better fit).

What do you think the general will look like?
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5404 on: August 04, 2017, 09:02:24 AM »

What do you think the general will look like?

About 55-45, IMHO
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5405 on: August 04, 2017, 10:50:54 AM »

Sara Nelson has conceded in the City Council race. It's Grant vs. Mosqueda.

I'm surprised Sara Nelson did as well as she did, though horrible "neighborhood" candidates sometimes overperform

The Times endorsement counts for something. But Nelson never got the full establishment endorsement that Durkan got; Pramila Jayapal, most of the council, and most local Democratic groups endorsed Mosqueda.

Jon Grant heavily considered dropping out when Mosqueda entered the race; even he doesn't see a lot of differences between their campaigns (I've found them to be disagreeing on maybe 3-4 issues).

They disagree on housing, which is the important one to me. But yes, Mosqueda is not super different from Grant on a host of other issues. She'll make a great Councilwoman - I just hope her and Gonzalez come
Around on the SoDo Stadium


I agree with this prediction. I think most of Harris' support goes to Dhingra.

And Englund is a much better fit here than Trump, an area with a lot of Romney-Clinton voters, especially downballot. (Though I believe Obama carried the 45th?)
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Seattle
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« Reply #5406 on: August 04, 2017, 11:26:58 AM »

Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5407 on: August 04, 2017, 09:48:37 PM »

Oh, Obama carried the 45th handily. 57.9-39.44

Just want to get on the record: Sara Nelson is not a "neighborhood" candidate. Pat Murakami (also endorsed by the Seattle Times) is the quintessential such candidate. I get why angrygreatness doesn't like her, but she isn't a NIMBY. In fact her overall political ideology probably suits you, KS, more than Mosqueda's. Nelson started the City Builders FB group, one of the first such groups dedicated to urbanism and growing Seattle up. Just because the Seattle Times chose her and decided to focus on some quote about neighborhoods needing to be heard, doesn't make her one. In fact every candidate has said something along the lines of "we need to still talk to the neighborhoods". It's just not politically feasible to not do so.

The Urbanist's Q&A: https://www.theurbanist.org/2017/06/28/2017-endorsement-questionnaire-sara-nelson/

My support for Mosqueda flows more from not wanting Grant anywhere near office than anything she's done in particular. Maybe I should do more research, though Tongue

(I have to be realistic with who can win in Seattle these days. Warmed-over neoliberal hacks like me are not ascendant politically there haha)
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5408 on: August 05, 2017, 01:53:57 AM »

^ So, "Commies" are the one, who win the elections in Seattle now?Huh)))
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5409 on: August 06, 2017, 12:36:58 PM »

^ So, "Commies" are the one, who win the elections in Seattle now?Huh)))

Not Commies, but Sawant and her merry band are VERY far left
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5410 on: August 10, 2017, 12:45:44 PM »

The Stranger just posted some demographic numbers from the primary:

TOTAL VOTES BY GENDER:

Women: 98,801
Men: 87,985
(Average age of Seattle women who voted in the mayoral primary: 51.36. Average age of Seattle men: 50.65.)

And a map of the vote by gender by precinct: https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col6%3E%3E1+from+13qH1DDJPOFki1-fgdHkid0M722klUqLIoZh-IJub&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=47.63310203548851&lng=-122.32174185937498&t=1&z=12&l=col6%3E%3E1&y=6&tmplt=7&hml=KML


TOTAL VOTES BY AGE:

Millennials: 45,613
Generation X: 54,650
Boomers: 59,311
Greatest Generation: 27,400
(The average age of Seattle's Millennial voters: 29. For Generation X: 44. For the Boomers: 62. And for the Greatest Generation: 79.)

And a map of age by precinct: https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col6%3E%3E1+from+1hRhMYcgn6fKz36_AiRpiJ2-2I9BkhzXvF9R93ufT&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=47.62500391869521&lng=-122.29187277978514&t=1&z=12&l=col6%3E%3E1&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=KML
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Virginiá
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« Reply #5411 on: August 10, 2017, 02:39:33 PM »

Greatest Generation: 27,400
(The average age of Seattle's Millennial voters: 29. For Generation X: 44. For the Boomers: 62. And for the Greatest Generation: 79.)

Was it meant to be Silent generation? Greatest generation is the one before silent - the FDR/New Deal generation. They aren't really around in big numbers anymore.
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Kingpoleon
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« Reply #5412 on: August 10, 2017, 03:16:24 PM »

Is she more moderate than Durkan?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5413 on: August 10, 2017, 03:51:51 PM »


No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #5414 on: August 10, 2017, 05:32:08 PM »


Durkan is the moderate candidate in the race. I would hope you actually look at their positions instead of just immediately supporting whoever you decide is more moderate, though.


No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)

She's out of the race, you don't have to keep poo-poo'ing her, KS.

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KingSweden
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« Reply #5415 on: August 10, 2017, 09:06:31 PM »


Durkan is the moderate candidate in the race. I would hope you actually look at their positions instead of just immediately supporting whoever you decide is more moderate, though.


No, but she's not an economically illiterate, virtue-signaling NiMBY-empowering spoken word artist with zero political experience in bed with Sawant (unlike Nikita Oliver)

She's out of the race, you don't have to keep poo-poo'ing her, KS.



Aren't there ballot challenges to sort through?
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5416 on: August 10, 2017, 09:17:20 PM »

Kingpoleon:

A good way to understand Seattle politics is to accept that everyone is REALLY progressive/left-wing and then judge them on the issues. Durkan may be to Moon's left on certain things, and to her right on others. It really boils down to the best portfolio of views. That's why even though hes way to my left I've always respected Mike McGinn (aka Mike McSchwinn) because he was a staunch urbanist, supported the SoDo Arena (unlike Ed Murray) and history proved him right on the waterfront tunnel with the Bertha fiasco. It's too bad he was an abrasive weirdo, because he's so superior to Murray on urban issues, IMO, even though Murray is probably the more "moderate"
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5417 on: August 11, 2017, 03:24:55 AM »

^ Is it not too boring when everyone and his/her grandfather is commited to (essentially) the same ideology? It doesn't matter whether it's far left or (as in some areas) - far right. Without diversity of ideologies politics becomes senseless, IMHO... It's like as it was in Russia under Soviet rule, when all, that existed, was "united block of Communists and non-party members" (under strong Communist dominance, of course).....
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5418 on: August 11, 2017, 08:50:28 AM »

^ Is it not too boring when everyone and his/her grandfather is commited to (essentially) the same ideology? It doesn't matter whether it's far left or (as in some areas) - far right. Without diversity of ideologies politics becomes senseless, IMHO... It's like as it was in Russia under Soviet rule, when all, that existed, was "united block of Communists and non-party members" (under strong Communist dominance, of course).....

No, actually, Seattle politics are a fascinating, of sometimes depressing, showdown between the worst tendencies of both ur-progressivism and milquetoast technocratic liberalism. I'm surprised we got two candidates with such good potential as Durkan and Moon
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Seattle
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« Reply #5419 on: August 11, 2017, 12:15:28 PM »

I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5420 on: August 11, 2017, 03:18:55 PM »

I mean it's only boring if you don't find local, Seattle-related issues interesting...
And even then, there are many varying views that don't fit on Seattle's Left - Far Left spectrum at all.

You've got the issues: housing affordability, homelessness, transit/traffic, and inequality/inequity that don't impact non-Seattleites, but then there isn't some delineated line broken down by ideology, which makes it fascinating to watch. There are Socialist urbanists, who are pro-housing and pro-development, rich single-family home owning establishment/business Ds that want to "preserve" their neighborhoods, and renting, low-income minorities that oppose development due to the threat of displacement, among many other, non conforming Lefty groups.

There's a lot more nuance to local politics than there is to national politics.

Well said!
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Crumpets
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« Reply #5421 on: August 11, 2017, 05:33:41 PM »

Some more precinct-level data from the Mayoral election:

http://crosscut.com/2017/08/who-voted-for-who-a-deep-dive-into-seattles-election-results-data/
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #5422 on: August 12, 2017, 01:55:26 AM »

^ Thanks to all! And still - while local issues are very important (in fact - the jmost important in our day-to-day life) i hold an opinion that near unanimity on most "global issues" (taxation, social issues and so on) is not so good. Even when these issues (i am a liberal on social one's too, though i am straight) are dear to my heart. IMHO- it's only slightly better then near-universal Bible-thumping socially conservative unanimity in many areas of the South and some - MidWest. I value and cherish diverity, and not only on local issues..... And when i see a situation when even most sane and reasonable representatives of a party can't get elected even locally (say, San Francisco or Marin county, California,  or Montgomery county, MD, which, until recently, supplied very reasonable Republicans to state legislature, and now doesn't has any even on local level, or East Texas (ancestrally Democratic area, where now even a dogcatcer is a Republican)) strictly because of "party label" - IMHO, it's not good...

Returning to Seattle - IIRC until early 90th (and for some short period in mid-90th) it had a Republican city councilman (Paul Kraabel), who was almost universaly praised by both Democrats and Republicans for his work. It's difficult to imagine it now, but i still hold an opinion that it could be useful...
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5423 on: August 16, 2017, 05:18:22 PM »

Oliver concedes:

http://www.thestranger.com/slog/2017/08/15/25350082/nikkita-oliver-concedes-mayoral-race-will-not-endorse-cary-moon-or-jenny-durkan

Frankly, I thought her concession statement had the feeling of sour grapes, especially since she had previously pledged to support Moon (and vice versa). My distaste for Oliver has been well documented here, though, so that may be my bias coloring it. Still, as someone who could have a crack at Harrell in the future, I'm surprised she worded things so strongly as I imagine neither Durkan nor Moon will be a prototypical ally of Harrell the Hack

Race IMO is Lean Durkan. It'll be interesting to see how many Oliver/Hasegawa/McGinn voters Moon can consolidate, i anticipate her and Durkan splitting Farrell's supporters evenly
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5424 on: August 25, 2017, 11:47:20 AM »

Out of curiosity - does anyone know who draws City Council districts post-2020? IIRC the current lines were imposed by the initiative backers
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