Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[RI]

https://twitter.com/nwprogressive/status/1720854531091878204

[Left Wing]

Currently conservatives lead on all seven Seattle City Council races, but the progressive shift with late ballots should flip at least four of them to the progressive column.

[RI]

Derek Kilmer announces he won't run for re-election in WA-06. Rumor is that Hilary Franz may drop out of the Governor's race to run for his seat.

[Crumpets]

My city council race (Seattle District 7) narrowed from Lewis being down by 11 to being down by 7 after the most recent ballot dump. I don't know how much more he'll be able to choose the gap, but that's a decent shift.

[PSOL]

This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.

[RI]

RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.

Yes, he and I have talked about it IRL. We'll be making a post on it in the coming days.

[Xing]

It turns out that I didn’t update my address in time to be able to vote in RI’s election. I likely would have voted for him had I been able to change my address sooner (which I thought I had), and if it turns out that his race comes down to the wire, I’ll be kicking myself.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1723048788577726897?s=46&t=-r8JGlJno...

[warandwar]

This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.

tbf Seattle DSA hasn't won a single race for City Council.

[PSOL]

This was an immense blowout for progressives and especially Seattle DSA, just two victories is just atrocious.

tbf Seattle DSA hasn't won a single race for City Council.

And there’s much to discuss over it, but not one after all this time and energy to the most left wing city on the east coast, where a party much more radical and cash-strapped won handily electorally and otherwise for a decade outside common expectations? Yeah, there’s little excuse here.

[GeneralMacArthur]

I haven't actually been following this that closely as I have been pretty satisfied with the results of the Harrell administration even with the progressive city council getting in his way, so it doesn't feel as critical as 2019 (plus Sawant resigned).  That said does anyone have any estimate of what % of the vote is in and when we would expect the rest to be counted?

My baseline read of this is that:

D1 = flip to Harrell ally (moderate?)
D2 = HP hold
D3 = not really a flip but a much more sane person than Sawant, plus seemingly another Harrell ally
D4 = only potential progressive gain?
D5 = moderate hold
D6 = Strauss survives, but he had to flip-flop on his entire ideology and pretend to be a staunch Harrell ally to do it
D7 = potential flip to moderate?

Then there's another story here which is that with Mosqueda resigning to join the King County Council, her replacement in the AL seat will be voted on by the rest of the council.  Which based on these results probably means we get another moderate or at least a Harrell ally.

All in all this almost certainly means Bruce Harrell now has the city council majority he needs to fully enact his agenda.  Or at least get it started before he has to face re-election in 2025 -- but Harrell's polling numbers were banana republic dictator high last time I checked -- high 60s or low 70s -- so I don't see him being in any real danger of losing re-election.

Good times are here in Seattle folks

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

RI, turns out your opponent in the election was another atlas user (who has like a dozen posts, but I found out just now)

won't say who in case they want to remain anonymous, but I think that's a first.

Yes, he and I have talked about it IRL. We'll be making a post on it in the coming days.

Is this coming?

[Seattle]

U.S. judge picks new WA legislative map, moving Latino district (LD-14/15)
Under the new map, the Latino-majority district unites Latino communities from East Yakima in Yakima County to Pasco in Franklin County.

https://crosscut.com/politics/2024/03/us-judge-picks-new-wa-legislative-map-moving-latino-district

LD-14 becomes a Biden district and would likely elect a D slate - especially in a presidential year.

[Seattle]

Dave's Redistricting actually has the new districts mapped.

Districts with noticeable changes (Biden #s):

LD-5:    59.6-36.4 D >>> 57.6-39.0 D | Likely D
LD-8:    55.9-40.2 R >>> 59.3-37.1 R | Safe R
LD-12:  49.3-47.4 R >>> 49.6-47.0 D | Lean R to Tilt R
LD-14:  51.7-45.6 R >>> 56.6-41.0 D | Likely R to Likely D
LD-15:  48.87-48.68 D >>> 59.0-38.4 R | Tilt R to Safe R
LD-16:   58.3-38.0 R >>> 55.6-41.3 D | Safe R
LD-17:   50.3-46.7 D >>> 51.7-45.2 D| Tilt R to Tossup

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

man that LD14 looks ugly though, lol

[Seattle]

The 17th's appendage probably has 5k people, so it would be a relatively easy fix to give to 14. Shift 20, 2, 31, 5, and 12. Then add like three precincts of East Wenatchee from 7 to 12. Repeat adjustments from 7, 13, 16, to 8 that takes some urban, but not overwhelmingly Hispanic Kennewick neighborhoods from 14.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Dave's Redistricting actually has the new districts mapped.

Districts with noticeable changes (Biden #s):

LD-5:    59.6-36.4 D >>> 57.6-39.0 D | Likely D
LD-8:    55.9-40.2 R >>> 59.3-37.1 R | Safe R
LD-12:  49.3-47.4 R >>> 49.6-47.0 D | Lean R to Tilt R
LD-14:  51.7-45.6 R >>> 56.6-41.0 D | Likely R to Likely D
LD-15:  48.87-48.68 D >>> 59.0-38.4 R | Tilt R to Safe R
LD-16:   58.3-38.0 R >>> 55.6-41.3 D | Safe R
LD-17:   50.3-46.7 D >>> 51.7-45.2 D| Tilt R to Tossup

Richland and Kennewick of the Tri-Cities are mostly (almost entirely?) within LD-16, while Pasco is split 3-ways across LD-8, LD-16, and LD-14. LD-17 seems demographically centered on easternmost Vancouver, Camas, and Washougal in Metro Portland.

[Sol]

The 17th's appendage probably has 5k people, so it would be a relatively easy fix to give to 14. Shift 20, 2, 31, 5, and 12. Then add like three precincts of East Wenatchee from 7 to 12. Repeat adjustments from 7, 13, 16, to 8 that takes some urban, but not overwhelmingly Hispanic Kennewick neighborhoods from 14.

The district is designed to maximize Latino CVAP per the district court judge's ruling; doing those things would undercut that so it's fairly unlike they'd do it. They basically put as much of Klickitat County as they could to keep Yakama historic lands in the district and still couldn't make all of it fit.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1780338483409588301

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/seattletimes/status/1780338483409588301

I love how transparent this trick is at this point to a seasoned politics-watcher, and I love even more the fact that it still (usually) works.

[Rat]

So disingenuous from Ferguson's camp. Sadly, it will probably work.

[RI]

Lots of drama at the GOP state convention. The candidate vetting committee disqualified Semi Bird from being endorsed due to "not being forthcoming" about his criminal history. Reichert then withdrew from consideration as well.

Now, the delegates have overruled the vetting committee by floor vote and have declared Bird eligible again.

EDIT: The WAGOP endorsed Bird over Reichert for Governor and Pederson over JHB for Lands Comm.

[RI]

A myriad of moronic endorsements out of the Republican convention. Choosing the not-so-secretly racist Kuehl Pederson over JHB was just the tip of the iceberg. Republicans torpedoed the one OSPI candidate who could've won, Chad Magendanz, who has now dropped out entirely, in favor of anti-mask anti-CRT crusader David Olson, punting an important (nonpartisan!) position that could've been won.

For SoS, there weren't any great candidates, but the convention took down the only candidate with elected experience for... this guy, a man with zero relevant experience at all, but likes to talk about "election integrity" a whole lot. Again, his endorsement meant the other candidates dropped out of the race entirely.

Once again, the GOP went to war with Dan Newhouse, choosing Trump-endorsed NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler instead by acclamation.

And in the 5th CD, the convention passed over both Rep. Jacquelyn Maycumber (who would be great) and Michael Baumgartner, who would be decent, for Trump admin official Brian Dansel from tiny Ferry County (home of Loren Culp). While he's not the worst, there are clearly candidates superior to him in the race better able to live up to Cathy McMorris Rodger's mantle.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

A myriad of moronic endorsements out of the Republican convention. Choosing the not-so-secretly racist Kuehl Pederson over JHB was just the tip of the iceberg. Republicans torpedoed the one OSPI candidate who could've won, Chad Magendanz, who has now dropped out entirely, in favor of anti-mask anti-CRT crusader David Olson, punting an important (nonpartisan!) position that could've been won.

For SoS, there weren't any great candidates, but the convention took down the only candidate with elected experience for... this guy, a man with zero relevant experience at all, but likes to talk about "election integrity" a whole lot. Again, his endorsement meant the other candidates dropped out of the race entirely.

Once again, the GOP went to war with Dan Newhouse, choosing Trump-endorsed NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler instead by acclamation.

And in the 5th CD, the convention passed over both Rep. Jacquelyn Maycumber (who would be great) and Michael Baumgartner, who would be decent, for Trump admin official Brian Dansel from tiny Ferry County (home of Loren Culp). While he's not the worst, there are clearly candidates superior to him in the race better able to live up to Cathy McMorris Rodger's mantle.

state republicans dont shoot yourself in the foot challenge