Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 23, 2014, 12:54:56 am
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Atlas Hardware Upgrade complete October 13, 2013.

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
« previous next »
Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 188 Print
Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 329022 times)
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #50 on: June 10, 2008, 12:17:11 am »
Ignore

More statistics about why this system sucks:

- In 92 out of the 124 races (74%) on the ballot, there is only one or two candidates on the ballot. So the primary is meaningless, but we're still going to spend money and time on it.

- There are 207 candidates for the Legislature this year, as opposed to 233 in 2006. So we get fewer choices.

How many races were there in 2006? There are going to be flaws in the first year of this system. People will get used to it and then elections will become interesting.

The same number of races.

There are always going to be flaws in this system. It sucks.

Perhaps eliminate the primary unless more than two candidates are running?
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
HardRCafé
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4402
Italy
View Profile
« Reply #51 on: June 10, 2008, 04:57:47 am »
Ignore

Considering that the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in the state for many years now, it's an impressive turnaround on their part.

As much as I would like to forget the Craswells, it is a stretch to say the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in Washington of all states.

I wish Osgood were worth endorsing.
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #52 on: June 10, 2008, 06:27:54 am »
Ignore

Considering that the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in the state for many years now, it's an impressive turnaround on their part.

As much as I would like to forget the Craswells, it is a stretch to say the Constitution Party has been basically non-existent in Washington of all states.

I wish Osgood were worth endorsing.

Craswells haven't said anything in years - they keep to themselves and won't do any media interviews.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #53 on: June 13, 2008, 04:51:36 pm »
Ignore

So, can this just turn into our general Washington discussion thread? Smiley
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #54 on: June 13, 2008, 04:54:02 pm »
Ignore

So, can this just turn into our general Washington discussion thread? Smiley

Aye. We have enough Washingtonians around to warrant one.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #55 on: June 13, 2008, 06:06:53 pm »
Ignore

Randy Dorn was just endorsed by the Washington Democrats for Superintendent. Color me a little surprised.

Perhaps a little amusingly, I was talking to the closest thing that the Washington Democrats have to a party elder the other day and he said that Booth Gardner was seriously considering running for Superintendent.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #56 on: June 13, 2008, 06:40:45 pm »
Ignore

Randy Dorn was just endorsed by the Washington Democrats for Superintendent. Color me a little surprised.

Perhaps a little amusingly, I was talking to the closest thing that the Washington Democrats have to a party elder the other day and he said that Booth Gardner was seriously considering running for Superintendent.

Running for attorney general would've been more helpful...
Logged

Kevinstat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1328


View Profile
« Reply #57 on: June 13, 2008, 09:04:09 pm »
Ignore

Perhaps eliminate the primary unless more than two candidates are running?

The one problem with that is that the system would be disjoint if that were done but voters could still vote for write-in candidates in races with a primary, and (while they possibly could have; I've heard Hawaii has no write-in candidate option for at least many of its elections, not just runoffs) the Grangers might not have wanted to bar write-in candidates from running, particularly in races where only one candidate was on the primary ballot.  Can a write-in candidate in an otherwise one-candidate primary get on the general election ballot if they get enough votes?  Is there a minimal number of votes for each office that a write-in candidate needs to get on the general election ballot (provided of course they are among the top two candidates in the primary)?  I imagine it isn't simply 1 vote for all offices.  If that were the case in Maine the Maine Green Indepdendent Party might actually field candidates in all "top ticket" races (for Governor where they always field a candidate, and for U.S. Senate and Congress where they never have fielded an official party candidate although they tried to for the Senate 1996 when they were an official party but that guy had to run as an Independent because not enough voter enrollments had been successfully done), plus a majority of Legislative races instead of the 10 or 13 respectively of 186 they ran candidates in 2006 and are doing this time.  A Republican write-in candidate tried to get on the ballot for state Representative but I've heard he got only 33 write-in votes where 50 were needed, so the Democratic incumbent in that race will be unopposed in November as will 6 other incumbent House Democrats and one Democratic Senator (the former 19-year State House Speaker) who is trading seats with the incumbent State Representative.  One incumbent Republican Representative is unopposed, one incumbent Independent Representative (a former Democrat) who seems rather cozy with the Republicans now has only a Democratic opponent, one incumbent Democratic Representative who replaced a resigned Republican in a special election last November has two Independent opponents but no Republican opponent, and one incumbent Democratic Representative has only a Green Independent opponent.
Logged
Ogre Mage
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2068
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.00, S: -4.35

P P

View Profile
« Reply #58 on: June 14, 2008, 03:45:13 pm »
Ignore

What do people think of Ladenburg's chances in the Attorney General race, or for Burner in the 8th?  I plan to vote for Ladenburg (and don't live in Burner's district) but frankly I am skeptical about their chances.

I could not bring myself to vote for Deborah Senn in 2004.  She was a bad candidate.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2008, 02:31:12 am by Ogre Mage »Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #59 on: June 14, 2008, 05:49:35 pm »
Ignore

Beating McKenna will be tough, but Lautenberg is a smart campaigner and will do what's necessary to win. That's going to be the closest statewide race this year.

Burner will win this time around. They've learned from last time, and the extra help from Obama should be enough to push her over.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #60 on: June 14, 2008, 06:02:53 pm »
Ignore

In a not so shocking move, Jim McIntire was just endorsed for State Treasurer at the Democratic Convention.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #61 on: June 14, 2008, 06:18:14 pm »
Ignore

Idiots.

The Washington State Democratic Party is lucky that the only other state party more retarded than them happens to be the Washington State Republican Party.

Oh, and Lautenburg will lose.
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #62 on: June 14, 2008, 06:57:27 pm »
Ignore

Idiots.

The Washington State Democratic Party is lucky that the only other state party more retarded than them happens to be the Washington State Republican Party.

Oh, and Lautenburg will lose.

That's the spirit! Cheesy
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #63 on: June 14, 2008, 07:21:07 pm »
Ignore

The Democratic Party just perplexes me with some of their candidates. Sometimes it seems like they want to lose.
Logged

Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29664
United States


View Profile
« Reply #64 on: June 14, 2008, 07:26:59 pm »
Ignore

Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.
Logged

n/c
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #65 on: June 14, 2008, 07:27:10 pm »
Ignore

The Washington Democratic Party can probably best be described IMO as a herd of cats. The vast majority of the party activists are cats. They may have good intentions, but they lack long term vision or understanding. They're also just sort of weird and don't fully how things work in the world.

Then there's a group that herds them. They understand what is necessary to win, how it is to be done, and do the grunt work necessary to pull of victories. They also feel like they are constantly surrounded by idiots that they must humor.

Unfortunately, the cats are so numerous they sometimes win out.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #66 on: June 14, 2008, 07:29:00 pm »
Ignore

Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #67 on: June 14, 2008, 07:31:02 pm »
Ignore

Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.

Yea, Sohn could still make it. The voters of Washington have a long and wonderful record of telling the state parties to f**ck off.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #68 on: June 14, 2008, 07:35:16 pm »
Ignore

Apparently Sohn wasn't even at the convention. He probably knew what was up.

Sohn is leading in fundraising though, so he's still got a shot (Mark Dayton anyone?)
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #69 on: June 14, 2008, 07:36:23 pm »
Ignore

Bah...I liked the Korean dude a lot more.  Looks like I'm voting for Martin.

McIntire isn't on the ballot yet! I'm still voting for Sohn in the primary.

Yea, Sohn could still make it. The voters of Washington have a long and wonderful record of telling the state parties to f**ck off.

I sure hope so.

Once Martin is elected, he has that seat for life. He's like McKenna--the type of Republican who, once established, will be able to win other statewide offices like Senator or Governor.

The Democrats have (or had...) an opportunity to stop him in the infancy of his political career. Now they may have to face his wrath in the future.

Martin is dangerous and must be destroyed now or never.
Logged

jimrtex
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5810
Macedonia, The Former Yugoslav Republic of


View Profile
« Reply #70 on: June 15, 2008, 01:57:44 pm »
Ignore

Washington has a fairly formal system for handling write-in votes.  Since most voters vote by mail, it is relatively easy to cast a write-in vote (it's also not like you are standing in a voting booth after standing in line for 15 minutes, and trying to figure how to do a write-in on a voting machine).  On the other hand, because many people vote early, they may not be aware that anyone is running as a write-in candidate.

In 1994, Linda Smith won the GOP nomination for Congress, and then went on to be elected.  The original GOP candidate had informally dropped out.  She also had been a state senator and been involved in several initiative petition drives.  She sent out mail to everyone in the district explaining how to do a write-in vote.   The election was done under the blanket primary system, where both Democratic and Republican nominations were on the same ballot.  In each race, voters could vote for any candidate, but the winners were determined on a party basis.  So a Democratic voter might decide to vote for a Republican candidate.  This could be either because they wanted that person to be elected, or because they wanted that candidate to be the Republican nominee, or because they wanted a candidate that they perceived as being weaker to be nominated, or perhaps simply because there was a choice on the Republican side, and only one candidate on the Democratic side who was sure to be nominated.  Since there wasn't a Democratic race for the nomination, some people may have voted for her because of the novelty of write-in voting.

In Washington, write-in candidates may declare they are running for office.  The total number of write-in votes is counted, but they are not counted for individuals unless there is a possibility of it changing the result, either by causing a write-in candidate to be nominated or elected; or by causing a result change among those who are on the ballot.  This would include overvotes, undervotes, and write-ins of the following form:

[X] John Smith
[X] Write-in John Smith

[ ] John Smith
[X] Write-in John Smith

[ ] John Smith
[ ] Write-in John Smith

all of which are valid votes for John Smith, but not machine-countable.

In Washington, originally the blanket primary was only used for the Republican and Democratic (or any other major parties) primaries.  Candidates of 3rd parties and independents would be direcly by party conventions or petition, and then have their name placed on the general election ballot.  Around 1970, a satirical party nominated a slate of candidates and received about 3% of the vote.  After that, the legislature required that nominees of 3rd parties and independents appear on the primary ballot, and that they receive 1% of the vote in order to appear on the general election ballot.  So on each office, a voter could participate in the Republican primary, the Democratic primary, or support the nomination of a 3rd party or independent candidate.  Since voters may tend to choose a race where they think there is meaningful choice, they may skip over the 3rd party nominees.  It might be hard to get supporters of a 3rd party to vote, simply to rubberstamp the nominations.

After the blanket primary was ruled unconstitutional, Washington switched to a Pick a Party Primary, where a voter receives a ballot similar to the the blanket party ballot with all (major) party candidates on the ballot.  But a voter had to mark on the ballot which party he was voting for.  Only votes for that party's candidates would then be counted.  In effect, a voter had to choose which party he was a member of, but that would then be a secret choice.  The Pick a Party Primary included a 1% provision, and this would be a challenge for the Libertarian Party, which briefly became a major party.  Since they had few contested nominations, voters might not pick their primary to vote in.  In 2004, they did have a contest gubernatorial nomination and this may have attracted enough voters to the Libertarian primary to secure a place on the general election for the statewide candidates.

When the Grange filed their initiative for the Top 2 primary, it was based on the law for the blanket primary, which was still being appealed before the 9th Circuit.  It retained a 1% provision for advancing to the general election.  It also specified that two candidates advance to the general election.  This was done for at least two reasons.  The Grange was trying to preserve the form of the blanket primary, as much as possible, and had generally produced two nominees, one Republican and one Democrat, for the previous 60+ years.  In addition, the US Supreme Court, in overturning the blanket primary in California, had suggested that a non-partisan primary in which the field was winnowed to 2 (or some other number) of candidates would be constitutional - since that would removed the unconstitutional feature of the blanket primary, where Democrats could participate in the nomination of the Republican candidates and vice versa.

The provision for two candidates advancing to the general election. along with write-in voting (and formal write-in candidates) means that there is the possibility in races where only one candidate filed for the primary ballot, the two candidates might be on the general election ballot.  The write-in challenger would need to get 1% of the votes in the race.  Since many voters will skip a race with a single candidate, especially if that candidate had expressed a preference for a party they did not care for, the 1% threshold will be an even smaller share of those who voted in the primary.  In a legislative race this might means 100 or 200 write-in votes could secure a place on the general election ballot for a write-in candidate who was somewhat organized.  It will also probably require hand counting of all ballots in those races where only a single candidate filed, since it is possible that 20 to 40% of the ballots skipped the races, and would have to be examined to make sure nobody wrote in a name.

The rules that the Secretary of State promulgated for the Top 2 primary do recognize the possibility of write-in candidates.  A declared write-in candidate may indicate a party preference, and if he advances to the general election, his preference will appear on the general election ballot.  In addition, a write-in vote for such a candidate is not required to include the party preference of a candidate to be valid.

Write-ins and write-in candidates are also possible in the general election.  However, a candidate that was eliminated in the primary, whether they were on the ballot or a declared write-in candidate, may not be a declared write-in candidate in the general election, and any casual write-in votes for such persons are void.

Washington also has true non-partisan elections.  These are used for judges and also the Superintendent of Public Instruction.  In these races, there is no party designation on the ballot, and any voter may vote.  Further, if a candidate receives a majority of the vote in the primary (held in the same election as the partisan primary), they are elected in the primary.  Otherwise the top two advance to the general election for a runoff.  Parties do endorse candidates in the non-partisan elections.

Hawaii does not have write-in voting.  This was challenged before the US Supreme Court, which essentially ruled that write-in voting is an essential part of voting in the US, but that Hawaii's electoral system provided a functional equivalent.  Elections in the United States were originally entirely write-in.  Voters would write the name of their favored candidate on a piece of paper and drop it in the election box (or in some cases vote in public or by voice).  Parties could still endorse candidates, but these were more like suggestions.  As a convenience to their partisans, parties would provide pre-printed ballots, though voters could cross out certain candidates or write an alternative name in.

In the early 1900s, the Australian ballot came into use, and quickly became universal.  An Australian ballot is printed by the election officials and includes all the candidates running for office.  It provides better ballot secrecy, makes it easier for a voter too choose among parties, and makes ballot stuffing harder.  But since write-ins were always a part of the election process they were permitted on the Australian ballots.  Later, the introduction of voting machines made it harder to cast a write-in vote, but it never became impossible.

In Hawaii, there is no write-in voting, but it has a late primary (September), has very minimal ballot access requirements for the primary, and all candidates including independents appear on the primary ballot, which is a pick a party format.  If an independent candidate receives 10% of the total vote, or if the leading independent candidate outpolls the nominee of any party, his name will be on the general election ballot.  Since very few voters participate in the 3rd party primaries, this latter standard is easy to surpass.

The Supreme Court ruled that in Hawaii since someone can get on the ballot with little effort, fairly close to the general election, that there was no reason to require write-in voting, especially given that they would require more effort by the voters.
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14170


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #71 on: June 18, 2008, 01:02:15 pm »
Ignore

Fun in the 46th District!



PolitickerWA:

Quote
The 46th Legislative District's race to succeed Rep. Jim McIntire for state representative in Position 1 has been no stranger to controversy this spring. There is a debate over who actually won the district line from the precinct committee, and now the two leading Democratic candidates are arguing over whether one of them is even in the race anymore.

On the afternoon of Friday, June 13, Erica C. Barnett at The Stranger reported that Scott White, a leading candidate, had withdrawn from the race upon receiving the news that he had come down with a case of pneumonia.

That Friday, White attempted to withdraw his withdrawal, and when he spoke with PolitickerWA.com White reiterated that he was still in the race, and even touted the sole endorsements of both the Washington Education Association and the Washington Conservation Voters, two highly influential interest groups in the Seattle area. White acknowledged that he had come down with a terrible illness, which he recently found out was walking pneumonia, and in the heat of his suffering felt that he would not be able to campaign for too long a time.

But the question remained, since the report came a day after Thursday's withdrawal deadleine, and was still not fully substantiated (despite this image of the King County elections website obtained by The Stranger), what did White do and when did he do it?

Back on May 15 the 46th LD Democrats held a meeting of Precinct Committee Officers to select an official nominee for the district in line with rules the state party instituted upon passage of the "top two" primary. Gerry Pollet won the nomination in a close vote of weighted PCOs, yet later that night Scott White claimed, both on his website and in an e-mail to PolitickerWA.com, that a misplaced ballot was found, thus handing the nomination to him. Regardless, Pollet, who had an uncounted ballot of his own that was disqualified for being written on the wrong colored piece of paper, remained the nominee.

Despite the nomination loss, White maintained a substantial lead in all of the normal electoral metrics. As of the end of May he had outraised Pollet $49,000 to $23,000 and, despite having greatly outspent Pollet, still held a $4,000 cash on hand advantage. White also had the endorsements of nearly every elected official in the greater Seattle area including the full 46th District delegation. This all made it so much of a surprise that White had apparently withdrawn.

Upon hearing the news, Pollet came to the conclusion that if White had truly withdrawn, state law would not allow him to "un-withdraw" pursuant to state election statute RCW 29A.24.131. It states, "No filing fee may be refunded to any candidate who withdraws under this section," and the law is otherwise very clear that upon submission of a filing withdrawal, a candidate submits his or her filing fee.

So it would seem that if White had formally submitted a withdrawal form, he would be forfeiting his filing fee and, since the filing deadline had passed nearly a week ago, would be unable to regain entry to the ballot.

On Monday, upon returning home from the state Democratic Party convention, Pollet submitted a public records request to King County Elections asking for any documents submitted by White pertaining to a withdrawal of his candidacy.

King County provided a fax from White on Tuesday afternoon, which was obtained by PolitickerWA.com. Although the fax has a hand written note on it saying "late withdrawal", the time stamp at the top of the fax clearly shows that it was sent on Thursday at 13:29, prior to the Thursday afternoon deadline imposed by the Secretary of State's office and King County.

Adding further intrigue to the story is the fact that the fax number the document was sent from is the fax number for the office of King County Executive, where White works as a Special Projects Manager. Sending faxes for political means from a King County office is a clear violation of ethics.

Pollet has requested that White be removed from the ballot in accordance with what he says are election laws that preclude White from withdrawing his withdrawal. Given the overwhelming Democratic slant of the 46th District, such a move would all but hand him a seat in the legislature.
Logged
Хahar
Xahar
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 38877
Bangladesh


View Profile
« Reply #72 on: June 18, 2008, 01:49:35 pm »
Ignore

Washington is weird.
Logged

Update reading list

The idea of parodying the preceding Atlasian's postings is laughable, of course, but not for reasons one might expect.
ottermax
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1419
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.97, S: -6.52

P
View Profile
« Reply #73 on: June 19, 2008, 10:26:07 pm »
Ignore

Washington is weird.

That's why we love it!
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13745
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #74 on: June 21, 2008, 02:34:38 pm »
Ignore

So Reichert is leading Burner 51-45 in a SUSA poll.

What a shocker! Ugh, I hate the Washington State Democratic Party. What is with their fetish for the worst possible candidates?
Logged

Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 6 7 8 ... 188 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.20 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines