Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[ottermax]

in some cases when a party is split between a number of candidates it opens up the possibility for third parties.

But excludes them 99% of the time...

It won't be that way once people get accustomed to the top-two primary. This year will look bad, but once people start to understand that they really have a choice in the first round, I believe we will see much more third party growth (esp. if the two main parties become corrupt).
Eventually this will really help to decrease partisanship and polarization.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I'm doing the blog thing for the results tomorrow.

http://blog.goldengiven.net/

Here's what's up so far:

• Legislative races to watch
  
• Analysis of primary accuracy
  
• Pre-primary news round-up
  
• Sam Reed can't predict turnout worth crap
  
  Hooray.

[CultureKing]

So, how do you guys think Sam Reed will do in the general? I'm feeling fairly certain he'll hit 60%. 70% wouldn't really be out of the question, either.

I am guessing 70%+, perhaps even breaking 80%. I don't even know any democrats who voted against him, he really did do a good job in 2004 of remaining impartial.

[CultureKing]

By the way LD 35 should be interesting tomarrow for state Rep. Fred Finn should advance, but I am not so sure about who else, I think there are two dems and one weak republican in the primary so it could be interesting (Daugs is interesting, he could either do quite well or fall flat on his face).

[Meeker]

The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...

[Ogre Mage]

The SOS race will be interesting to see the absolute floor vote of a Democrat running statewide. I predicted Reed gets ~60-65%.

My highly scientific and wonderfully accurate predictions in a moment...

That is my prediction as well. 

[Meeker]

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

[Meeker]

There's also a new SurveyUSA poll out that has Dorn up 43-32-9. Kind of shocking, especially since that's an 11 point jump for Dorn in less than a month.

I guess we'll see if it's right in 20 hours...

[Grad Students are the Worst]

The Seattle Times's ridiculously un-random straw poll:

SPI
Dorn 57%
Bergeson 32%

Supreme Court
Fairhurst 66%
Bond 34%

Johnson 77%
Beecher 16%
Vulliet 7%

Secretary of State
Reed (R) 67%
Osgood (D) 25%
Montgomery (C) 5%

State Treasurer
Martin (R) 53%
McIntire (D) 28%
Sohn (D) 20%

State Auditor
Sonntag (D) 73%
McEntee (R) 21%
Freeman (C) 6%

Lt. Governor
Owen (D) 59%
McCraw (R) 21%
Wiest (R) 8%
Bell (D) 6%
Peck (C) 6%

For some reason, Governor and WA-8 only have like 10 votes apiece.  The rest have several hundred.  Anyway, take that as you will.

Edit: Which, since it has Larsen leading Bart 50-46, should be with a grain of salt.

[Meeker]

I wish I had time and data to do an analysis of every race, but alas I don't. So here is my prediction for my own LD. Note that this isn't what the final tally will be, but this is what the results tomorrow night this time should read. And I spent the past three hours or so trying to perfect this, so they better end up being pretty friggin' close.

Srail (D): 51.2% (10,100)
Carrell (R): 48.8% (9,700)

Kelley (D): 59.8% (12,000)
Dooley (R): 40.2% (8,000)

I can already feel the egg on my face...

[Meeker]

FWIW, looking at the data I've seen, Gregoire should win Pierce County. Narrowly.

[CultureKing]

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

Shouldn't Goldmark have an opponent?

[Dan the Roman]

Alrighty, here we go. A bolded name means they will be the top vote getter. Two names means those are the ones advancing to November.

US Congress, Dist. 1: Inslee
US Congress, Dist. 2: Larsen, Bart
US Congress, Dist. 3: Baird, Webb
US Congress, Dist. 4: Hastings, Fearing
US Congress, Dist. 5: McMorris, Mays
US Congress, Dist. 6: Dicks, Cloud
US Congress, Dist. 7: McDermott, Beren
US Congress, Dist. 8: Reichert, Burner
US Congress, Dist. 9: Smith

Governor: Gregoire, Rossi
Lt. Governor: Owen, McCraw
SOS: Reed, Osgood
State Treasurer: Martin, Sohn
State Auditor: Sonntag, McEntee
Attorney General: McKenna
CPL: Goldmark
SPI: Bergeson, Dorn
Insurance Commissioner: Kreidler, Adams
Supreme Court: Fairhurst, Johnson, Stephens

Legislative races later on tonight if I have time...

You think Burner will come second this round given the way primary turnout has been going this year? Especially with all the competitive contests on the Democratic side?

[CultureKing]

There are now results on the Secretary of State's homepage. Gregoire is doing very well, somehow she is ahead in Adams, Skamania and Spokane counties...

ChangMook Sohn looks to be headed towards defeat.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

hahaha.

Smeall is second in my LD and it isn't even close.  Wow.  I would have never, ever expected that.  It was a joke vote.

[Sam Spade]

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

[CultureKing]

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

Counting is basically done for the night.

[Meeker]

Y'all think you could go any slower in counting votes.  thanks!

The joys of absentee voting!

There will be another deluge around 10:30-11 PST. Pierce and King should be wrapped up by midnight to 3 AM.

If I have time I'll try to explain why it takes so long...

[bgwah]

Early results map:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

[Meeker]

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

Or maybe Anderson being behind. Makes no sense.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Biggest surprised of the night: WTF @ 27th, Position 1?

My mind is still being blown.  Seriously, who did the Republicans vote for in that race?  Either Democratic turnout was astronomically above the 63-35 (or so) split that's standard for us, or Flannigan drained a huge number of votes from Woodard.

[CultureKing]

Early results map:

http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&off=5&elect=6&fips=53&f=0

That map is beautiful for Gregoire.

[bgwah]

^ Yeah, winning the second, third, fourth, and fifth largest counties in the state (that she lost in 2004) isn't a bad sign---but who knows what will happen come November. We've never had a primary like this so we can't really draw any parallels. But if she wins Pierce and Snohomish in the general, she's almost definitely won the election.

In other news, incumbent Republican Glenn Anderson is narrowly behind his Democratic opponent for State Representative in the 5th legislative district (mine!). Anderson didn't even get a Democratic opponent in 2006. It would make me very happy if we finally had a Democratic legislator. We're pretty much the only triple Republican district left in suburban Seattle, I think--at least in King County. It's pretty awful knowing you're from the district that spawned Dino the Despicable.

[Meeker]

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

WTF is going on in Whitman County with Aiken?

I think Eunice Coker's staff messed up.

The 28th LD Senate race is currently tied, 5790-5790.