Washington 2020: The Calm Before the Drizzle

[Alcon]

When this inevitably goes to a referendum, what is the likelihood of gay marriage being legalized in Washington state? 

I think likelier than not, although I want to see how the messaging and polling shapes up in the nascent stage because stuff is all over the place right now.

[Ogre Mage]

Horray!

[Tender Branson]

Very good to see !



Hopefully both WA and MN voters will uphold the law later this year in their referendums.

[CultureKing]

Whoot!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Whoot!

[greenforest32]

Quite a few races and issues polled aside from Governor and gay marriage:

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=3e569851-5364-447f-84cf-4bc6ac6bf688

2-year, 0.5% increase in state sales tax: 58% support, 37% oppose, 6% not sure

2/3 supermajority legislative vote or simple majority legislative referral vote to increase taxes: 54% support, 30% oppose, 15% not sure

Legalize possession of 1-ounce of marijuana, regulate sale/distribution + 25% purchase tax: 51% support, 41% oppose, 8% not sure

Voter approval for ticketing cameras: 62% support, 30% oppose, 8% not sure

State income tax on individ. making $200k+year/families making 400k+year: 56% support, 37% oppose, 8% not sure

Should plastic grocery/retail bags be illegal? 55% legal, 33% illegal, 12% not sure

R-Primary: 26% Romney, 22% Gingrich, 19% Santorum, 7% Paul, 5% Perry, 2% Huntsman, 18% undecided

Gingrich is probably leading in the more recent polls

[bgwah]

+19 for state income tax? Pretty sure that's close to the margin it failed by very recently...

[CultureKing]

Why hello good numbers for pot legalization.

Although there are some odd things about that poll (for example Inslee is doing better in W. Washington than Metro Seattle?, or the tax increases are leading?!)

[bgwah]

Why hello good numbers for pot legalization.

Although there are some odd things about that poll (for example Inslee is doing better in W. Washington than Metro Seattle?, or the tax increases are leading?!)

Yeah, I don't buy the tax increases passing, much less by a landslide.

[Ogre Mage]

In the AG's race, the Washington State Patrol Troopers Association endorsed Bob Ferguson over Reagan Dunn.  Publicola notes:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://publicola.com/2012/01/25/one-of-the-most-important-endorsements-in-this-race/


A while back I suggested that Ferguson was more likely to win because he would outwork Dunn:

On paper, Dunn looks like a great candidate -- former federal prosecutor, good name ID, politically well-connected/can raise money.  But based on the past history of the two candidates, I think that Bob Ferguson will outwork Dunn in the end.

This suggests that scenario is playing out.

[bgwah]

Marijuana legalization is on the ballot!

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.

[CultureKing]

Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.

2% MOV Rossi vs Murray yes?

BTW Rossi's performance still strikes me as impressive in 2010; even though it was a Republican year getting that percentage against Murray is no small feat (though I will say that I don't see any way for Rossi to win a major state-wide office anytime soon, 2010 was probably his best chance for at least a few election cycles).

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Guys, I just remade the new WA-1 with Dave's redistricting app and dispite the fact that it gave Rossi about a 2% MOV, it gave Obama a 14.5% advantage.  That's good.

2% MOV Rossi vs Murray yes?

BTW Rossi's performance still strikes me as impressive in 2010; even though it was a Republican year getting that percentage against Murray is no small feat (though I will say that I don't see any way for Rossi to win a major state-wide office anytime soon, 2010 was probably his best chance for at least a few election cycles).

Mhm, East King County really did it for him in the new WA-1, as well as the new 8th.



BTW here's the 2008 presidential race by the 2012 congressional districts.





Here are the MOVs I got for each district, if I can recall:

1st:  +14 Obama

2nd:  +23 Obama

3rd:  +4 Obama

4th:  +20 McCain

5th:  Didn't check what the vote was here, but it was likely single digits for McCain

6th:  Didn't check the exact total, but it didn't change that much from the 2008 version

7th:  I thing Bgwah mentioned that Obama had a 62% MOV here or something

8th:  +4 or 5 for Obama, not exactly sure

9th:  +38 Obama

10th:  Meeker got 57-40 in Obama's favor (+17)

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017363709_truthneedle29m.html

I hate to sound like Goldy, but wow, talk about being shamelessly pro-McKenna.

[Alcon]

Gay marriage vote on Wednesday

I have two sources that tell me Sen. Haugen (D-Camanahnahnahno Island) is privately being a little squirrely on her vote, although that's weird considering the clarity of her public statements.

No news on undecided Sens. Hill (R-Latte), Fain (R-Used Car Lot), Shin (D-Seagull) or Hatfield (D-Nirvana), or "undecided" Sens. Parlette (R-Aplets and Cotlets) and Ericksen (R-Dairycow).

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?

[Alcon]

Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?

I don't really think so -- her public statement was concrete, and she put out a very negative statement when NOM's national branch started phone-bombing here.  I also really think it's unlikely that they'll come out with none of the four undecideds.  My intuition is that the vote will be more like 28-21 than 25-24.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Re: Senator Haugen: Uh...do we need to worry about this?

I don't really think so -- her public statement was concrete, and she put out a very negative statement when NOM's national branch started phone-bombing here.  I also really think it's unlikely that they'll come out with none of the four undecideds.  My intuition is that the vote will be more like 28-21 than 25-24.

So she's just being the little old lady that she is?

(Quasi-related: My aunt has said some somewhat unfortunate things about LGBTQ people in the past, but when it comes to people she actually knows being insulted or discriminated against, or people's civil rights being on the chopping-board, she comes through for the right side. Every time.)

[Meeker]

I know one of Haugen's grandchildren and they say there's nothing to worry about, FWIW

[Napoleon]

I know one of Haugen's grandchildren and they say there's nothing to worry about, FWIW

Great to hear, assuming said grandchild is reliable.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

I love Joe McDermott. 

[Alcon]

OK, marriage equality vote scheduled for about 6 PM today.

[Joe Republic]

Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?

[smoltchanov]

Theoretically it looks between 25-24 and 29-20. Practically - somewhere "in between")))