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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 338292 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
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« Reply #3075 on: February 01, 2012, 04:24:20 am »
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OK, marriage equality vote scheduled for about 6 PM today.
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« Reply #3076 on: February 01, 2012, 04:37:50 am »

Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?
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I just slept for 11 hours, so I should need a nap today, but we'll see.
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« Reply #3077 on: February 01, 2012, 04:43:05 am »
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Theoretically it looks between 25-24 and 29-20. Practically - somewhere "in between")))
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« Reply #3078 on: February 01, 2012, 04:56:46 am »
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Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?

If you had said "latte" instead of "Starbucks" I would have done all of those things today Sad

Anyway, smoltchanov is right on.  25 votes are needed.   They have 25 committed "Yes" votes (23 of whom have been solid from day one), 4 undecideds, and 2 longshots.  The non-surprise range is 25-24 to 29-20.  I think 27 or 28 votes is probably likeliest; even 29 wouldn't shock me.

Details:

There are 25 announced "Yes" votes.  23 of those sponsored the legislation, while two Democrats announced late-term support (one who backed down on demanding the bill send it directly to referendum; the other formerly undecided.)

There are 18 announced "No" votes, plus two Republicans who haven't committed, but are straight-ticket social conservatives.  I'd give Linda Evans Parlette about 8% odds and Doug "I Have No Opinion" Ericksen about 13% odds.

That leaves 4 true undecideds:

* Brian Hatfield (D-Pacific Coast), who has voted anti-gay in the past because he was born-again a few years back.  His decision will be totally personal.  I'd say 50% odds of a Yes vote.

* Paull Shin (D-Northern Seattle Metro), who is like Brian Hatfield but a life-long Mormon, and from a much more socially liberal district.  I'd say 55% odds of a Yes vote.

* Andy Hill (R-Microsoft), a freshman who says he wants to make sure churches aren't forced to marry gays, which is in the bill, and represents a very liberal district.  I'd say 65% odds of a Yes vote.

* Joe Fain (R-Seattle Exurbs), a freshman, who's 31, has never mentioned a religious affiliation that I can find, and seems to tilt a little left on social issues -- even if his district doesn't.  Interesting guy.  I'd say 65% odds of a Yes vote.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 05:00:10 am by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3079 on: February 01, 2012, 04:59:44 am »
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Would somebody be able to kindly predict the vote outcome, approximately, for someone who's not as familiar with these individual state legislators as you apple-eating, Nirvana-listening, Starbucks-drinkers?

You forgot about Pearl Jam!  Wink
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« Reply #3080 on: February 01, 2012, 05:31:07 am »

Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?
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« Reply #3081 on: February 01, 2012, 05:38:50 am »
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Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?

Senate.. House - well, i don't remember exact numbers there, but suppose - something about 53-45 or 55-43.... I don't remember too many moderate Republicans (equivalents of Litzow, Hill or Fain) there... Though there are couple AFAIK. On the other hand i don't remember Tim Sheldon's there  either)))
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 05:48:27 am by smoltchanov »Logged

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« Reply #3082 on: February 01, 2012, 02:53:20 pm »
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Ok, cool, thanks.  And this is the Senate, I presume?  (Sorry, I really haven't been paying attention.)  What does it look like in the House?

Senate.. House - well, i don't remember exact numbers there, but suppose - something about 53-45 or 55-43.... I don't remember too many moderate Republicans (equivalents of Litzow, Hill or Fain) there... Though there are couple AFAIK. On the other hand i don't remember Tim Sheldon's there  either)))

Sounds about right.  They have at least as many sponsors for the bill in the House as needed "Yes" votes.  It will pass.

Beyond that, I expect a more partisan-line vote in the House, as is typical there.  We're gonna see some blue dog Dems (like Chris Hurst), relieved of the pressure that's on their Senate counterparts, vote "No."  We'll probably see some individual conscience votes -- I only know of Glenn Anderson and Maureen Walsh (who's taking a political risk here) but there may well be others.  All in all, I expect blue dog/religious Dems to outnumber "yes"-voting Republicans and tilt things closer a bit.  53 to 55 seems like a reasonable range, but it's a guesstimate from my end.  There's not much information available.
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« Reply #3083 on: February 01, 2012, 05:35:02 pm »
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The Senate Rules Committee just passed through the legislation, according to the Seattle Weekly, by a vote of 14-7.  The vote was party-line, save for Pflug's expected Yes.  Three things worth noting here.  First, Haugen was one of the 14, meaning my rumors were probably moot.  Second, for a vote of 14-7 to be possible, that must mean the Chair votes and voted Yes.  The Chair happens to be Lt. Governor Brad Owen (D-Reefer Madness), a long-time opponent of anything ever featured in an after-school special.  Maybe he's had a change of heart now that both his Republican opponents support marriage equality.  Finally, Linda Evans Parlette (R-Aplets and Cotlets) voted against it in committee, bringing the number of fake undecideds to Doug Ericksen (R-Dairycow).

Yes 25
Undecideds 4 (Hatfield, Shin, Fain, Hill)
Doug Ericksens 1
No 19 (plus one Doug Ericksen)
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 05:46:41 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3084 on: February 01, 2012, 06:17:24 pm »
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omg, Alcon I love your D-this place R-that place comments!

The vote should be starting soon.... I'm excited!
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« Reply #3085 on: February 01, 2012, 09:20:37 pm »
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Hatfield will be a "Yes," which means it would pretty much take a lightning strike for this to fail

Yes 26
Undecided 3
Doug Ericksen 1
No 19

Edit: Hatfield's commitment contains this anecdote:

Quote
As I prayed for guidance, I went as far as to ask God for a sign that would help light the path for me toward reaching my decision. That sign, as I interpret it, has come in multiple forms, including an email from former Representative Betty Sue Morris, who shared with me that in a 20-plus year legislative career, her greatest regret was voting in support of the Defense of Marriage Act (DOMA) in 1996. Two years after voting in favor of the act, she learned her daughter was a lesbian. While her daughter has forgiven her, she has never forgiven herself for what she feels was a betrayal of her own family, something she has never been able to get over. Also, a similar message was conveyed to me from former legislator Dave Quall, who also singled out the DOMA vote as the greatest regret of his legislative career. As Christians, he said, we should be open to all people who are seeking God’s grace. Rejecting a measure recognizing their right to wed is like putting out a “Need Not Apply” sign. These are former colleagues whom I love and respect and I take their struggles and their revelations on this issue very seriously. Additionally, I spoke to my former pastor who said that while his beliefs were based on the Bible and therefore against a redefinition of marriage, he would not love anyone less or treat anyone differently based on their sexual orientation or choice of spouse. As private citizens, we are able to have that opinion, but as legislators, our “no” vote on this issue will be seen as loving my fellow man or woman less, based on their sexual orientation and an act of discrimination. That is something I cannot do.

http://blog.senatedemocrats.wa.gov/hatfield/sen-hatfield-announces-stance-on-marriage-equality-act/
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« Reply #3086 on: February 01, 2012, 09:49:13 pm »
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Various religious protections amendments adopted by voice vote

Hill and Fain both have proposed amendments...seems like a bad sign, but probably is the opposite

Edit: Fain's -- "A regularly licensed or ordained minister or priest, imam, rabbi, or similar official of any religious organization shall be immune from any civil claim or cause of action based on a refusal to solemnize or recognize any marriage under this section" -- has been adopted.  I think this is great cover for an Aye vote.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 09:51:49 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3087 on: February 01, 2012, 10:05:27 pm »
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Amendment 14, which protected something or other against religious exemptions (basically limits the anti-discrimination bill) fails 22-27, which may be the final vote
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« Reply #3088 on: February 01, 2012, 10:12:10 pm »
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Referendum amendment is up, with Brian Hatfield (D-Ijjasdifahojka) advocating it
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« Reply #3089 on: February 01, 2012, 10:24:56 pm »
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When are they going to actually vote on this?

I'm glad that Hatfield has come out in support of this. Also, its good to see that both Fain and Hill basically support it.

So this will be 28-21? or more like 27-22?
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« Reply #3090 on: February 01, 2012, 10:28:28 pm »
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Sen. Don Benton (R-Clark County): "If something predates the Constitution, like marriage, do we even have the authority to change it?"

Yes, Sen. Benton, that is why we don't have slavery anymore.

***

Referendum clause vote:

Yea 23
No 26

Shin voted No, I think.  Hill sounded like he just cleared his throat several times, but finally voted Yea.  Fain and Ericksen were Yeas.

***

At this point:

- Shin seems a clear Yea.
- Hill either has a head cold or is a Yea.
- Fain seems less for this than expected, but I'd still say he's a likely Yea.
- Ericksen has given no indications he is anything but a Nay.

***

My guess on the final vote: 28-21 or 29-20.
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« Reply #3091 on: February 01, 2012, 10:32:08 pm »
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Are you watching this Alcon?
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« Reply #3092 on: February 01, 2012, 10:34:40 pm »
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Are you watching this Alcon?

Yep, for a few more minutes.  I didn't expect my State Senator to be as impassioned as she is.
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« Reply #3093 on: February 01, 2012, 10:58:43 pm »
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The Washington State Senate has approved marriage equality by a vote of 28-21

Didn't catch which one of the undecideds was a Nay

Edit: Fain, I think?  Disappointing
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 11:02:39 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3094 on: February 01, 2012, 11:01:42 pm »
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It was Shin. Fain voted in favor.
« Last Edit: February 01, 2012, 11:04:12 pm by Pacific Governor Jackson »Logged

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« Reply #3095 on: February 01, 2012, 11:04:20 pm »
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It was Shin.

Weird...I swore I heard him vote No on the referendum clause.  Makes most sense, though.  Kind of a hard thing for a Mormon to do.

Good for Fain, in any case.  Not something he had to do at all.
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« Reply #3096 on: February 01, 2012, 11:15:06 pm »
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The Washington State Senate has approved marriage equality by a vote of 28-21

WHOOO! Cheesy

Now we just have to wait until November, where hopefully this will be upheld!
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« Reply #3097 on: February 02, 2012, 01:03:44 am »
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Nicely done. When is the house voting on it?
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« Reply #3098 on: February 02, 2012, 01:28:28 am »
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I didn't understand the timing for this, but I'd guess they are aiming for the Governor to sign this by Valentine's Day...
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« Reply #3099 on: February 02, 2012, 10:00:03 pm »
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017398333_1stdistrict02m.html

bleh. Why can't Burner just go away?
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