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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 321284 times)
greenforest32
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« Reply #3175 on: February 14, 2012, 05:48:30 pm »
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/

Washington is currently running second behind Wisconsin for the next PPP poll.  Vote!

Do they poll the top two when there are only four choices?
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« Reply #3176 on: February 14, 2012, 06:25:56 pm »
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/politicsnorthwest/2017504326_another_poll_shows_mckenna_lea.html

Elway, 405 RV, shows McKenna 45%, Inslee 36%:

Quote
Continuing an early trend in Washington's 2012 governor's race, a new Elway poll finds Republican Attorney General Rob McKenna with a 9-point lead over Democratic Congressman Jay Inslee.

The poll, conducted last week, found 45 percent of respondents would "definitely" or "probably" vote for McKenna, compared with 36 percent for Inslee.

Pollster Stuart Elway notes one "ominous" sign for Inslee in the poll data: the proportion of voters with a negative impression of him (22 percent) is nearly equal to those with a positive impression (28 percent).

By contrast, McKenna has a 3 to 1 ratio of positive to negative impression among voters surveyed.

Elway also found McKenna enjoying a lead among key independent voters: 49 percent said they're at least leaning toward McKenna compared with 24 percent for Inslee.

In addition, McKenna is picking up 13 percent of Democrats in the poll, while only 3 percent of Republicans said they'd cross party lines to back Inslee.

Overall, Elway says the results show "a significant early advantage" for McKenna, while Inslee has yet to broaden his appeal beyond the Democratic base.

"McKenna does an even better job among voters who are familiar with both candidates, suggesting that he will get stronger as the campaign unfolds," Elway notes. "But there are many miles to go before we vote."

The poll of 405 registered voters has a margin of error of plus/minus 5 percent.

Inslee's continuing lag in the early polls has been worrying Democrats, who united behind the Bainbridge Island Congressman early, stifling any notion of a primary challenge.

Some Democratic operatives have been quietly agitating for Inslee to quit Congress and concentrate on campaigning full-time. Inslee has said he has no plans to do so.
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« Reply #3177 on: February 15, 2012, 05:07:37 pm »
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PPP is going to be polling us this weekend.  Any suggestions on questions?  (Beyond the obvious -- marriage equality, pot, Cantwell/Bryant, Cantwell/Baumgartner, Gov) -- I'll pass them onto PPP.
« Last Edit: February 15, 2012, 05:16:53 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3178 on: February 15, 2012, 05:12:14 pm »
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Has Governor McKenna started fitting the curtains for his new office yet?
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« Reply #3179 on: February 15, 2012, 07:17:57 pm »
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income tax? Didn't some poll show it now passing?
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So it goes. heya.
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« Reply #3180 on: February 15, 2012, 11:04:56 pm »
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Income taxes passing in Washington? Ha Ha Ha Ha!
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« Reply #3181 on: February 17, 2012, 11:33:23 am »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 11:36:20 am by realisticidealist »Logged

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« Reply #3182 on: February 17, 2012, 02:48:20 pm »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3183 on: February 17, 2012, 05:28:22 pm »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.

No, I'd have to drive back to the westside.
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« Reply #3184 on: February 17, 2012, 07:12:53 pm »
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New SUSA poll:

McKenna 49%
Inslee 39%

Obama 50%
Romney 39%

Obama 50%
Paul 37%

Obama 51%
Santorum 38%

Obama 56%
Gingrich 34%

Referendum 74 - Gay marriage (estimated)
Approved 50%
Rejected 46%

Also, lol:



« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 07:17:54 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3185 on: February 17, 2012, 11:56:30 pm »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!
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« Reply #3186 on: February 17, 2012, 11:58:55 pm »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.
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« Reply #3187 on: February 18, 2012, 06:07:19 pm »
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Gay marriage numbers in the SUSA poll were 50%-45% Approved with Obama underwater in approval 42%-47%.  The partisan ID looks too Republican to me, but adjusting it to 2010 exit poll results results in insanity (Obama +20 over Romney)
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« Reply #3188 on: February 19, 2012, 12:18:16 am »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.

That's absolutely BS, of course. Tongue  lol
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« Reply #3189 on: February 19, 2012, 08:06:55 pm »
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PPP won't leak anything to me besides saying to expect some "interesting" results.  I asked about the social issues votes (pots, gays) specifically.
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« Reply #3190 on: February 20, 2012, 01:19:04 pm »
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Why is Alcon in New York?
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« Reply #3191 on: February 20, 2012, 03:05:25 pm »
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Why is Alcon in New York?

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« Reply #3192 on: February 21, 2012, 12:58:53 pm »
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PPP will have non-GOP primary stuff tomorrow
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bgwah
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« Reply #3193 on: February 22, 2012, 02:00:39 pm »
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PPP says:

Governor: 42-42 McKenna-Inslee
Attorney General: 34-32 Dunn-Ferguson

I-502 (Marijuana): 47-39 Approve
Gay marriage: 50-46 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

Doesn't look liked they asked about the Senate race?
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Miles
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« Reply #3194 on: February 22, 2012, 02:41:02 pm »
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They'll probably release Senate numbers separately. They usually split up President/Senate/Governor results out among a few reports.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #3195 on: February 22, 2012, 06:55:41 pm »
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Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%
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« Reply #3196 on: February 22, 2012, 07:22:24 pm »
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Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%

Yeah
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« Reply #3197 on: February 23, 2012, 02:04:42 pm »
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That's a slight oversampling of women, but only slight. I think the numbers in most elections are like 52-48 or 53-47 or thereabouts.
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« Reply #3198 on: February 23, 2012, 02:37:14 pm »
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Obama 52%
Santorum 40%

Obama 51%
Paul 38%

Obama 53%
Romney 38%

Obama 55%
Gingrich 35%
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« Reply #3199 on: February 23, 2012, 02:41:48 pm »
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PPP's newest Washington numbers find Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in the state and double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. 51% of voters think he's doing a good job to 45% who give him poor marks. He's on positive ground largely because there are twice as many Republicans (12%) who approve of him as there are Democrats (6%) who disapprove.

What might be most interesting about the Washington numbers is how Mitt Romney stacks up against Obama compared to the other Republican candidates. Long perceived as the most electable GOP hopeful, Romney fares only the third best in Washington with both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul coming a few points closer to Obama.

Santorum's the strongest of the Republican candidates, trailing Obama 52-40. Paul does next best with a 51-38 deficit. As we frequently find to be the case he does the best of the GOP hopefuls with independents, trailing Obama by only 2 at 43-41. Romney trails by 15 at 53-38, and the weakest of the Republicans is Newt Gingrich who's down 20 at 55-35.

Washington provides a pretty good example of the toll this campaign has taken on Romney's image. Last May when we polled the state his favorability was a -13 spread at 34/47. Since then he's dropped another 23 points and it's now -36 at 27/63.
He's gone from nearly break even with independents at 38/42 to incredibly unpopular at 28/59. He's gone from 66% of Democrats disliking him to 88%. And even with Republicans his negatives have shot from 29% to 40%. Maybe if he wins the nomination some of these numbers will start to recover but for now the campaign seems to have hurt him with pretty much all groups of the electorate.

The other thing Washington does is provide more evidence that the 2012 electoral landscape will be more similar to 2008 than 2000 or 2004. In the last 2 months PPP has polled 4 states that Al Gore won by 5 points or less in 2000 that Barack Obama went on to win by double digits in 2008. In all 4 of those states Obama is again headed for a double digit victory...they are not reverting to their 2000/2004 competitiveness.
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