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| | |-+  Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle
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Author Topic: Washington '15: The Calm Before the Drizzle  (Read 492435 times)
Seattle
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« Reply #3175 on: February 15, 2012, 07:17:57 pm »
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income tax? Didn't some poll show it now passing?
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So it goes. heya.
Jackson
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« Reply #3176 on: February 15, 2012, 11:04:56 pm »
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Income taxes passing in Washington? Ha Ha Ha Ha!
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3177 on: February 17, 2012, 11:33:23 am »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 11:36:20 am by realisticidealist »Logged
Alcon
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« Reply #3178 on: February 17, 2012, 02:48:20 pm »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3179 on: February 17, 2012, 05:28:22 pm »
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PPP says Santorum is up 9 here on their first night of polling (in the caucus, not the general). I'm still debating on whether I should caucus or not.

Did you find out if you can remote-caucus?

I'm considering going if the local GOP will let me (I'm a Democratic PCO), at least to observe.

No, I'd have to drive back to the westside.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3180 on: February 17, 2012, 07:12:53 pm »
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New SUSA poll:

McKenna 49%
Inslee 39%

Obama 50%
Romney 39%

Obama 50%
Paul 37%

Obama 51%
Santorum 38%

Obama 56%
Gingrich 34%

Referendum 74 - Gay marriage (estimated)
Approved 50%
Rejected 46%

Also, lol:



« Last Edit: February 17, 2012, 07:17:54 pm by Alcon »Logged

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« Reply #3181 on: February 17, 2012, 11:56:30 pm »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!
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« Reply #3182 on: February 17, 2012, 11:58:55 pm »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.
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Alcon
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« Reply #3183 on: February 18, 2012, 06:07:19 pm »
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Gay marriage numbers in the SUSA poll were 50%-45% Approved with Obama underwater in approval 42%-47%.  The partisan ID looks too Republican to me, but adjusting it to 2010 exit poll results results in insanity (Obama +20 over Romney)
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« Reply #3184 on: February 19, 2012, 12:18:16 am »
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Yeah, weird. You would think that the cell lines would be more liberal in general (students/youth don't use land lines).

Also did you notice that both Romney and Paul are losing Eastern Washington in that poll? Meanwhile Western Washington (outside Seattle Metro) is tied. What?!

SUSA's samples are often odd like that, even if overall they end up being fairly accurate.

They also claim WA has more Republicans than Democrats, which I find strange.

That's absolutely BS, of course. Tongue  lol
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Alcon
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« Reply #3185 on: February 19, 2012, 08:06:55 pm »
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PPP won't leak anything to me besides saying to expect some "interesting" results.  I asked about the social issues votes (pots, gays) specifically.
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« Reply #3186 on: February 20, 2012, 01:19:04 pm »
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Why is Alcon in New York?
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Alcon
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« Reply #3187 on: February 20, 2012, 03:05:25 pm »
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Why is Alcon in New York?

Conference
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Alcon
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« Reply #3188 on: February 21, 2012, 12:58:53 pm »
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PPP will have non-GOP primary stuff tomorrow
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bgwah
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« Reply #3189 on: February 22, 2012, 02:00:39 pm »
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PPP says:

Governor: 42-42 McKenna-Inslee
Attorney General: 34-32 Dunn-Ferguson

I-502 (Marijuana): 47-39 Approve
Gay marriage: 50-46 approve

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_222.pdf

Doesn't look liked they asked about the Senate race?
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Miles
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« Reply #3190 on: February 22, 2012, 02:41:02 pm »
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They'll probably release Senate numbers separately. They usually split up President/Senate/Governor results out among a few reports.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #3191 on: February 22, 2012, 06:55:41 pm »
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Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%
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« Reply #3192 on: February 22, 2012, 07:22:24 pm »
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Relatively good numbers. Also does this stand out?

Quote
If you are a woman, press 1.  If a man, press 2.
 
Woman...........................................................54%
Man .................................................................46%

Yeah
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« Reply #3193 on: February 23, 2012, 02:04:42 pm »
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That's a slight oversampling of women, but only slight. I think the numbers in most elections are like 52-48 or 53-47 or thereabouts.
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A shameless agrarian collectivist with no respect for private property or individual rights.

Yeah that's right, I said Siam. Why don't you go tell Pedro Martinez about it.
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« Reply #3194 on: February 23, 2012, 02:37:14 pm »
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Obama 52%
Santorum 40%

Obama 51%
Paul 38%

Obama 53%
Romney 38%

Obama 55%
Gingrich 35%
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« Reply #3195 on: February 23, 2012, 02:41:48 pm »
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Quote
PPP's newest Washington numbers find Barack Obama with an approval rating over 50% in the state and double digit leads over all of his potential Republican opponents. 51% of voters think he's doing a good job to 45% who give him poor marks. He's on positive ground largely because there are twice as many Republicans (12%) who approve of him as there are Democrats (6%) who disapprove.

What might be most interesting about the Washington numbers is how Mitt Romney stacks up against Obama compared to the other Republican candidates. Long perceived as the most electable GOP hopeful, Romney fares only the third best in Washington with both Rick Santorum and Ron Paul coming a few points closer to Obama.

Santorum's the strongest of the Republican candidates, trailing Obama 52-40. Paul does next best with a 51-38 deficit. As we frequently find to be the case he does the best of the GOP hopefuls with independents, trailing Obama by only 2 at 43-41. Romney trails by 15 at 53-38, and the weakest of the Republicans is Newt Gingrich who's down 20 at 55-35.

Washington provides a pretty good example of the toll this campaign has taken on Romney's image. Last May when we polled the state his favorability was a -13 spread at 34/47. Since then he's dropped another 23 points and it's now -36 at 27/63.
He's gone from nearly break even with independents at 38/42 to incredibly unpopular at 28/59. He's gone from 66% of Democrats disliking him to 88%. And even with Republicans his negatives have shot from 29% to 40%. Maybe if he wins the nomination some of these numbers will start to recover but for now the campaign seems to have hurt him with pretty much all groups of the electorate.

The other thing Washington does is provide more evidence that the 2012 electoral landscape will be more similar to 2008 than 2000 or 2004. In the last 2 months PPP has polled 4 states that Al Gore won by 5 points or less in 2000 that Barack Obama went on to win by double digits in 2008. In all 4 of those states Obama is again headed for a double digit victory...they are not reverting to their 2000/2004 competitiveness.
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greenforest32
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« Reply #3196 on: February 23, 2012, 02:45:25 pm »
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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/02/obama-up-big-in-washington.html

Quote
Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Newt Gingrich?

Favorable........................................................ 19%
Unfavorable.................................................... 69%
Not sure ......................................................... 11%

Poor Newt
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« Reply #3197 on: February 24, 2012, 02:00:23 am »
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lol  Saintly Rick doing better than Romney?  Eastern Washington must be really energetic about him.....
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realisticidealist
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« Reply #3198 on: February 25, 2012, 01:27:11 pm »
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One week until the caucuses. Anyone else thinking of going?
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bgwah
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« Reply #3199 on: February 25, 2012, 01:38:43 pm »
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No, I'm not a Republican.
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