Washington '12: Getting Stoned at our Gay Weddings

[greenforest32]

So if healthcare gets overturned by the Supreme Court how big of a hit will McKenna take?


Nothing like backing a huge lawsuit against ObamaCare to remind liberals about your true stances!

Wouldn't it getting overturned favor McKenna?

Well actually, I could see how the whole thing being struck down could hurt him. I don't think he'd really take a hit if the Supreme Court struck down just the mandate though (depending on what else they decide goes down with it)

[bgwah]

The problem isn't liberals. The problem is suburban moderates.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

I agree.  I don't think the healthcare bill is nearly popular enough for it to be a net-positive for any Democrat if it's struck down.

[Ogre Mage]

If the health care bill went down, it could help insofar as the Democratic base, which seems rather asleep/unaware with regards to Inslee, might be galvanized to turn out against McKenna.  But in terms of swinging moderate/independent voters I am very skeptical.

[bgwah]

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Senator-Joseph-Zarelli-on-disability-seeks-cuts-to-Washington-benefits-146357805.html

lol.

[Seattle]

http://www.komonews.com/news/local/Senator-Joseph-Zarelli-on-disability-seeks-cuts-to-Washington-benefits-146357805.html

lol.

My sentiments exactly!

Of course, it's totally not a biased article .

[I Can't Get That Sound You Make, Out Of My Head]

What's McKenna's politics like?

[Grad Students are the Worst]

What's McKenna's politics like?

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.

[bgwah]

What's McKenna's politics like?

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.

Maybe that's how he tries to appear. He's a right-winger of the Kemper Freeman variety.

[bgwah]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.

[Fuzzy]

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.

There there, there there.  [Pat pat, hug]

[bgwah]

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.

[bgwah]

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.

Nobody else likes this story?

Anyway, anyone gonna go to the caucus this weekend? I'm thinking about going just to score some more points on VoteBuilder.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.

Nobody else likes this story?

Anyway, anyone gonna go to the caucus this weekend? I'm thinking about going just to score some more points on VoteBuilder.

nerd.

I'm marking you as a Republican PCO just to spite you

[ModerateCoward]

Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

[Seattle]

Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.

[ModerateCoward]

Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.

Don't forget Freemont, right across the lake!
Working on  2020 neutral-committee redistricting Democratic gerrymander map right now  using same type of districts Republicans used for 2010 gerrymander.

[bgwah]

We only just barely got the 10th district. We won't get an 11th in 2020. Maybe 2030 if we're lucky.

[ModerateCoward]

1st(Spokane) -47.2
4th(Vantucky) - 53.1
7th(Olympics) -56.2
8th(Bellingham)- 56.5
Obama percentages. Green & Purple are votesinks, Yellow minority-majority. Is this worse or better than Republican gerrymander?

We would probably need about 20-25% growth over a decade to get another seat. I think if light rail gets built to Vancouver on time, it could experience another population boom that would be worth 200,000 in last 2 or 3 years.

[Seattle]

light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.

[ModerateCoward]

light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.

Yea, currently planned to open in 2019. Could be quite an epic boom of high-density population in the last couple years before the census, would probably unseat the incumbent Republican in 2020 for sure. I would predict another severe recession/depression in the next decade when the gas prices rise above $5.00 a gallon. It's unlikely to stop Washington's growth though imo.

[ottermax]

While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).

[ModerateCoward]

Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

[Seattle]

Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).

[ModerateCoward]

Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).

I don't think we will be getting 12 districts for a while(2040) though, unless US enters a depression that would affect the suburban states the most, but than this whole discussion would be moot since that would cause a realignment. There will be a very big demographic change if we go to 11 districts by 2020 that should make 9-2 very easy, and maybe even 9-1-1 if the new demographics allow you to draw a cross-mountain or Spokane district as D while keeping the other a toss-up. Hispanic district in Eastern Washington would also be a possibility by 2020, but it would be a toss-up at best, considering the new coming Hispanics would mostly be non-voters, and it would require a very ugly gerrymander for it to work that would require two cross-mountain districts. It would include Yakima, Grant, Adams and Franklin and would take Hispanic precincts out of other counties in a very ugly manner. The Kennewick and Wenatchee splits would probably embarrass Ohio Republicans.
edit: got 36% Hispanic district that 50,000 short of required population under 11 districts.