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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 336592 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #3275 on: April 08, 2012, 01:51:03 am »
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What's McKenna's politics like?

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.
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« Reply #3276 on: April 08, 2012, 02:14:58 am »
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What's McKenna's politics like?

Socially ambivalent (pro-choice leans, pro-civil unions, doesn't really wanna talk about any of it); economically conservative-reformist type.

Fiscal conservative technocrat reformer type, basically.

Maybe that's how he tries to appear. He's a right-winger of the Kemper Freeman variety.
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« Reply #3277 on: April 08, 2012, 01:41:33 pm »
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.
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« Reply #3278 on: April 08, 2012, 07:07:14 pm »
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2017936337_apwamajorityminoritydistricts1stldwritethru.html

So you get to keep Adam Smith, and can't even find candidates for the 15th LD, aside from a single college kid. Anyone with a brain knew exactly what was going to happen. Shame on the pathetic Democrats who allowed this Republican gerrymander to go through instead of being brave enough to the folks at "OneAmerica" that they were being stupid idiots. We have to suffer with this inexcusably terrible map for a whole decade now.

There there, there there.  [Pat pat, hug]
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« Reply #3279 on: April 09, 2012, 11:13:14 pm »
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http://www.king5.com/news/local/Mark-Owen-son-of-Lt-Gov-Brad-Owen-charged-with-theft-forgery-146743465.html

lol again.
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« Reply #3280 on: April 11, 2012, 03:19:28 am »
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Nobody else likes this story? Sad

Anyway, anyone gonna go to the caucus this weekend? I'm thinking about going just to score some more points on VoteBuilder. Wink
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« Reply #3281 on: April 11, 2012, 05:05:14 pm »
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Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.
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« Reply #3282 on: April 11, 2012, 07:09:08 pm »
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Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell Wink

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.
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« Reply #3283 on: April 11, 2012, 07:17:09 pm »
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Looks like Washington is still growing fast, maybe another seat for the next re-districting process? Could finally draw that Eastern WA Democratic seat(Spokane-Whitman) if that's true.

Way too soon to tell Wink

What Im interested in is how much Seattle will grow. Belltown/South Lake Union/Capital Hill/First Hill's population continues to explode, and from what I've seen, it looks the current apartment boomlet will only help that (and probably continue through much of the decade). Not to mention Amazon's amazing growth plans (which means more people!).

I think Seattle's growth will exceede expectations.
Don't forget Freemont, right across the lake!
Working on  2020 neutral-committee redistricting Democratic gerrymander map right now  using same type of districts Republicans used for 2010 gerrymander.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 08:18:04 pm by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #3284 on: April 11, 2012, 09:51:46 pm »
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We only just barely got the 10th district. We won't get an 11th in 2020. Maybe 2030 if we're lucky.
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« Reply #3285 on: April 11, 2012, 10:08:25 pm »
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1st(Spokane) -47.2
4th(Vantucky) - 53.1
7th(Olympics) -56.2
8th(Bellingham)- 56.5
Obama percentages. Green & Purple are votesinks, Yellow minority-majority. Is this worse or better than Republican gerrymander?

We would probably need about 20-25% growth over a decade to get another seat. I think if light rail gets built to Vancouver on time, it could experience another population boom that would be worth 200,000 in last 2 or 3 years.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 10:16:54 pm by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #3286 on: April 11, 2012, 11:01:10 pm »
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light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.
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« Reply #3287 on: April 11, 2012, 11:06:41 pm »
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light rail to Portland, I assume?

With Boeing keeping the vast majority of production instate and with one third of its workforce retiring (and needing replacement), combined with continued growth of Seattle's biotech/tech industries + Amazon AND the quick growth down in Vancouver and the Tri-cities, I'd venture to say this next decade will have a very strong growth rate.

Maybe I'm reading to much into the now, but barring another severe US economic recession, I don't see too much of a slow down.
Yea, currently planned to open in 2019. Could be quite an epic boom of high-density population in the last couple years before the census, would probably unseat the incumbent Republican in 2020 for sure. I would predict another severe recession/depression in the next decade when the gas prices rise above $5.00 a gallon. It's unlikely to stop Washington's growth though imo.
« Last Edit: April 11, 2012, 11:08:36 pm by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #3288 on: April 11, 2012, 11:26:17 pm »
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While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).

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« Reply #3289 on: April 12, 2012, 12:04:54 am »
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Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?
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« Reply #3290 on: April 12, 2012, 07:24:58 pm »
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Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).
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« Reply #3291 on: April 12, 2012, 07:48:34 pm »
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Anyone else got a better democratic gerrymander for '20?

Not one, unless you count a hidious map.

It looks like 12 districts would be a sweet spot for Dems. I've got a solid 9-1-2 plan, that could become 11-1 in the best of D years. Spokane/Pullman district would be generally tossup and the far western eastern washington seat with republican Pierce and King counties only voted 53 for McCain (I know, a stretch seat).
I don't think we will be getting 12 districts for a while(2040) though, unless US enters a depression that would affect the suburban states the most, but than this whole discussion would be moot since that would cause a realignment. There will be a very big demographic change if we go to 11 districts by 2020 that should make 9-2 very easy, and maybe even 9-1-1 if the new demographics allow you to draw a cross-mountain or Spokane district as D while keeping the other a toss-up. Hispanic district in Eastern Washington would also be a possibility by 2020, but it would be a toss-up at best, considering the new coming Hispanics would mostly be non-voters, and it would require a very ugly gerrymander for it to work that would require two cross-mountain districts. It would include Yakima, Grant, Adams and Franklin and would take Hispanic precincts out of other counties in a very ugly manner. The Kennewick and Wenatchee splits would probably embarrass Ohio Republicans.
edit: got 36% Hispanic district that 50,000 short of required population under 11 districts.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2012, 08:03:02 pm by seatown »Logged
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« Reply #3292 on: April 12, 2012, 09:15:39 pm »
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While we are growing faster than most states, our growth rate is slower than the previous decade I believe, and redistribution depends on high percentages of growth, enough to transfer large populations from one state to another. 2020 may be a very boring redistribution if current trends continue (I think there have been years in the past where barely any seats changed hands).



But if the country's growth slows down even more, that still puts us closer to a new seat.
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« Reply #3293 on: April 13, 2012, 01:48:29 am »
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http://www.king5.com/news/politics/Kucinich-on-a-WA-congressional-run-Im-looking-at-all-my-options-147218145.html
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« Reply #3294 on: April 13, 2012, 06:01:05 pm »
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He's all yours! Tongue
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"I have seen three ages in the West of the world, and many defeats, and many fruitless victories."

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« Reply #3295 on: April 13, 2012, 06:46:48 pm »
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Yeah, I don't think WA will be getting up to 12 districts for quite some time, but it's still fun to play around Tongue
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« Reply #3296 on: April 14, 2012, 01:05:21 am »
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http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nba/2017976982_sacramento14.html
More good news!
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« Reply #3297 on: April 14, 2012, 01:07:32 am »
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Is every sports team in Northern California thinking of moving? Note that most of them would stay within Northern California.
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« Reply #3298 on: April 15, 2012, 02:55:44 am »
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Democratic caucuses tomorrow.  Past turnout:

2008: 190,000
2006: 5,200 (lol)
2004: 70,000

Whoever guesses tomorrow's caucus turnout closest wins a free order of cheesy bread!! (Seriously, I will order you cheesy bread through the internet if you care that damn much)
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« Reply #3299 on: April 15, 2012, 02:58:11 am »
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15,000 no cheesy bread for me
edit:oops
« Last Edit: April 15, 2012, 03:45:28 am by seatown »Logged
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