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| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
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Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 329100 times)
bgwah
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« Reply #3300 on: April 15, 2012, 03:14:07 am »
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10,500
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #3301 on: April 15, 2012, 08:54:54 am »
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Holmes
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« Reply #3302 on: April 15, 2012, 09:49:38 am »
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21k.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3303 on: April 15, 2012, 10:29:55 am »
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State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3304 on: April 15, 2012, 01:14:00 pm »
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State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.

I haven't been paying too much attention to the State Senate races. What is the most likely scenario for the Republicans to gain it?
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Meeker
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« Reply #3305 on: April 15, 2012, 01:54:35 pm »
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State Rep. Troy Kelley (D-28) has announced he's running for State Auditor. As a result, State Sen. Mike Carrell's opponent, a University Place City Councilmember, has dropped down to Kelley's old seat, leaving us without a candidate against Carrell and leaving the State Senate in even more danger.

I haven't been paying too much attention to the State Senate races. What is the most likely scenario for the Republicans to gain it?

Balance is 27-22 so if we lose three we're done for. Our danger seats are the 10th, the 25th and maybe the 19th. Thankfully Haugen decided to run for re-election in the 10th, but State Representative Barbara Bailey is challenging her. I'd say that one's too close to call. The 25th is gone - Kastama is running for SoS, demi-God State Rep. Bruce Dammeier is running and we don't have a candidate. Brain Hatfield in the 19th is popular but the old version of this district swung pretty hard R in 2010 and can be kinda funny. Hatfield also voted for marriage equality which probably doesn't play too well out here. His Republican opponent hasn't managed to raise much of any money though.

Our best pick-up opportunity was probably the 28th, though it was never that good of a shot and now that we don't even have a candidate one month before the filing deadline it looks lost. We have what looks to be a serious candidate in the 5th against Pflug but given the partisan lean of the seat plus her politically-savvy vote in favor of marriage equality I'm doubtful we've got a real shot there. Also might've had a shot at the 17th but the candidate we were courting decided to run for county office instead and we've got no one right now. Oh and the 41st might've been in play but Litzow voted for marriage equality and, once again, we don't have a candidate. Basically we're not going to really be playing offense anywhere.

So it's looking like a real possibility we'll end up with a 25D-24R Senate... but two of those "Democrats" are Tim Sheldon and Jim Hargrove. And then we have to defend four seats in 2014 (26th, 30th, 44th, 48th) though I suppose if 2014 turns out to be a good year for Democrats (unlikely unless Romney wins) we could win back the 6th, the 41st, the 45th or the 47th.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3306 on: April 15, 2012, 02:12:15 pm »
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The 41st is a prime pick-up opportunity. It would be a shame not to even try.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3307 on: April 15, 2012, 02:18:35 pm »
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I was hoping Randy Gordon would want to try to reclaim the seat but he's shown no interest so far.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3308 on: April 15, 2012, 02:35:40 pm »
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Not the State Senate, but with Goodman back in and the Republicans running a religious right candidate, I think that seat will be safe for us.*

*I'm now in the 45th so I care more. Wink
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Meeker
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« Reply #3309 on: April 15, 2012, 02:59:46 pm »
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Groan...

Quote
Dear Friend,

I have just received this communication from Washington Citizens for Kucinich which asks that I consider running for Congress in Washington State.

This week, while I was speaking in Seattle, the question came up in two television interviews: KCPQ-TV and KING-TV. I cannot approach consideration of such an unprecedented step without seeking advice from you, my friends in Washington State, whose help and generosity have enabled me to serve in the US Congress from Ohio.

I would appreciate your participation in this survey of my Washington State supporters. Please click on this link, enter your email address and zip code, and then vote. I would be grateful for your comments too and shall be reading them on Wednesday.

Your participation and your guidance is critical to my decision.

Very sincerely,

Dennis Kucinich
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bgwah
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« Reply #3310 on: April 15, 2012, 05:18:18 pm »
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^ I was tempted to introduce a resolution welcoming Dennis to run in the 8th district at the caucus... Wink
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #3311 on: April 15, 2012, 06:14:58 pm »
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How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.
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« Reply #3312 on: April 15, 2012, 06:45:55 pm »
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How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.

I am registered in Olympia but live in Spokane, so sadly no caucusing for this guy.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3313 on: April 15, 2012, 06:50:59 pm »
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How did your caucuses go?  Dull and not that highly-attended here.

Yeah there were maybe around 40 people for (most of) north Sammamish. Somebody gave a speech for the sacrificial lamb running against Reichert. She sounds like a smart person and all but she will of course be crushed.

My precinct had three attendees and we got five delegates, so I'm a delegate to the legislative convention. The 8th CD convention will be about four minutes from my house, so I'll probably go to that too if possible.
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Meeker
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« Reply #3314 on: April 16, 2012, 09:03:11 am »
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Turnout has been estimated as 9,500. Barack Obama won 98% of the vote.
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Grad Students are the Worst
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« Reply #3315 on: April 16, 2012, 12:56:19 pm »
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Gregoire just endorsed DelBene for congress.  It looks like there's a battle to become the anti-Burner.
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« Reply #3316 on: April 17, 2012, 02:32:35 am »
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Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!
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« Reply #3317 on: April 17, 2012, 02:59:49 pm »
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Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!

Yay!

I'm rooting for DelBene (Well, really anyone but Burner).
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So it goes. heya.
Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #3318 on: April 17, 2012, 06:24:24 pm »
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We have a candidate against Steve Litzow - it's Goldy's ex-wife. Though she's done other things as well.

http://www.mi-reporter.com/news/147807465.html
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bgwah
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« Reply #3319 on: April 17, 2012, 09:38:30 pm »
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Hey the Stranger (and Seattle Times I suppose) won a Pulitzer Prize!

Yay!

I'm rooting for DelBene (Well, really anyone but Burner).

Yeah... I would have preferred Ruderman, but I could vote for DelBene if I had to. I'm still stuck in the 8th though so it doesn't really matter.

We have a candidate against Steve Litzow - it's Goldy's ex-wife. Though she's done other things as well.

http://www.mi-reporter.com/news/147807465.html

lol wut
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bgwah
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« Reply #3320 on: April 18, 2012, 02:05:03 pm »
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Democratic caucuses tomorrow.  Past turnout:

2008: 190,000
2006: 5,200 (lol)
2004: 70,000

Whoever guesses tomorrow's caucus turnout closest wins a free order of cheesy bread!! (Seriously, I will order you cheesy bread through the internet if you care that damn much)

I'm awaiting my Pizza Pi coupon in the mail, Alcon.
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Ogre Mage
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« Reply #3321 on: April 25, 2012, 09:43:18 pm »
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I don't live in the WA-01 but would feel comfortable voting for either Delbene or Ruderman.  Hobbs is too conservative for my taste, Rauniyar is a weak, inexperienced candidate.  I supported Burner in the past but have concluded she just does not have what it takes.
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Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #3322 on: April 28, 2012, 11:55:03 am »
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Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.
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« Reply #3323 on: April 28, 2012, 12:24:09 pm »
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Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.
Possible pickup?
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So it goes. heya.
Meeker
meekermariner
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« Reply #3324 on: April 28, 2012, 12:34:32 pm »
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Great news - State Rep. Tim Probst (17th District down in Vancouver) is going to run against incumbent Republication State Sen. Don Benton.
Possible pickup?

Definitely. Toss-up for now.
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