Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 18, 2014, 11:36:57 pm
HomePredMockPollEVCalcAFEWIKIHelpLogin Register
News: Don't forget to get your 2013 Gubernatorial Endorsements and Predictions in!

+  Atlas Forum
|-+  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
| |-+  Gubernatorial/Statewide Elections (Moderator: Joe Republic)
| | |-+  Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See
« previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 132 133 134 135 136 [137] 138 139 140 141 142 ... 186 Print
Author Topic: Washington '14: The Dullest Midterm That You Ever Did See  (Read 305505 times)
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29640
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3400 on: June 18, 2012, 03:03:30 pm »
Ignore

PPP:

"Tomorrow we'll have Colorado President and Washington Governor/Gay Marriage/Marijuana legalization numbers"

"Going to have good news for pro-gay marriage side in WA tomorrow. Pretty decent chance equality advocates go 4 for 4 this fall"


"In Washington state 22% of Republicans support legalizing marijuana, only 10% support legalizing gay marriage"
Logged

n/c
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29640
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3401 on: June 18, 2012, 06:43:56 pm »
Ignore

So, this isn't getting much press, but Sam Reed has apparently eliminated the state Voters' Guide and the only counties picking up the slack are King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish.   This is unfortunate.
Logged

n/c
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14148


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #3402 on: June 18, 2012, 06:47:08 pm »
Ignore

I think he just cut it for the primary. And I'm pretty sure there wasn't one in 2010 either.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3403 on: June 19, 2012, 01:10:57 am »
Ignore

Between this, and his awful postmarking proposal, I'm sure glad I avoided being a moderate hero by not voting for him in 2008... Tongue
Logged

Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14148


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #3404 on: June 19, 2012, 01:25:01 am »
Ignore

I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3405 on: June 19, 2012, 01:27:04 am »
Ignore

I'm sure he didn't want to do it. His budget got slashed just like every other state agency. Mailing and printing the voters' guide costs millions of dollars.

That's MH talk. Wink
Logged

Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29640
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3406 on: June 22, 2012, 03:32:55 am »
Ignore

This is kind of fun.  Here's party ballots in the 2008 Presidential Primary if only men/women voted:

Logged

n/c
FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3944
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3407 on: June 22, 2012, 08:01:17 am »
Ignore

Wow, Yakima women ftw!  Cheesy
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3408 on: June 23, 2012, 11:46:02 am »
Ignore

That is pretty cool. Now you just need a map showing the gender difference. Smiley
Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3409 on: June 24, 2012, 01:46:56 pm »
Ignore

I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.

Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3410 on: June 25, 2012, 10:04:05 pm »
Ignore

I got polled for the first time today. I got the impression it was a pro-Roger Goodman push poll.
Logged

Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29640
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3411 on: June 27, 2012, 03:23:59 am »
Ignore

I was wondering how long it might be before Grays Harbor turns into a Lean R county. I decided to see how much more Democratic it has been than the state using gubernatorial and senatorial elections dating back to statehood and added a polynomial trend line (that's what Excel calls it, at least). As the graph shows us, the direction it's trending can change, but on its current course it could definitely be a Republican county by the 2020s.



I wish I knew more about politics in the coast counties.  Another interesting thing I noticed is that both coastal counties had big partisan swings between the 2008 primary and General.

Grays went from to 64% Democratic to 56%, and if you subtract primary ballots from the GE result, you get only about 50.7% of "new" ballots being Democratic.

Pacific went from 63% Democratic to 55%, making 53% of the new ballot estimate Republican.

I wonder where the Dems are losing support: if the Democrats have just been running candidates that are bad for the area, or if swing voters are genuinely trending GOP there long-term.

It's interesting, because they're not exactly rabidly socially conservative areas, and Obama didn't exactly get destroyed there in the primaries.
Logged

n/c
Grad Students are the Worst
Alcon
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29640
United States
View Profile
« Reply #3412 on: June 27, 2012, 03:40:00 am »
Ignore

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_WA_062612.pdf

According to PPP, the most popular city in Washington is Spokane (56-14) over Seattle (58-26).  I'm not a Spokane hater -- Brown's Addition seems nice and all.  But this is gross and strange.  Also faring well are Vancouver (49-10), which some people might have thought meant Canada's, and Olympia (48-20).  Tacoma (33-40) did not do so well.

Our local companies are pretty popular: Starbucks (46-25) and especially Microsoft (72-14).

Washingtonians prefer PCs over Macs, 44%-22%.

Only 7% of Washingtonians self-identify as hipsters, while 76% do not, and 17% are too old to know what that means.

Republicans hate Seattle, Tacoma, and Macs, and are ambivalent on Olympia.

Democrats like everything, especially Starbucks.

Republicans are more likely to call themselves hipsters -- 11% versus 7% for Democrats, proving that no hipsters call themselves hipsters, and Republicans have problems with irony.
Logged

n/c
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3413 on: June 27, 2012, 08:37:02 pm »
Ignore

So more "like" Seattle than Spokane. Seattle just has a bigger group of haters.
Logged

FBF
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3944
United States


View Profile
« Reply #3414 on: June 27, 2012, 10:35:48 pm »
Ignore

Does anyone know what percentage Kerry got in the new 1st? 
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3415 on: June 27, 2012, 11:26:10 pm »
Ignore

I went to the 1st district debate tonight. Still looking like Darcy will be the nominee. Sigh.
Logged

Frodo
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13287
United States


View Profile WWW
« Reply #3416 on: June 28, 2012, 06:23:19 pm »
Ignore

Rob McKenna now opposes repealing Obamacare
Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3417 on: June 28, 2012, 09:06:12 pm »
Ignore


Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.
Logged

LastVoter
seatown
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4469
Thailand


View Profile
« Reply #3418 on: June 29, 2012, 12:59:07 am »
Ignore


Hilarious. He looks pretty stupid right now. Maybe he isn't as strong of a candidate as we thought.
Something that's supposed to be kept quiet...
Logged
Napoleon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14708


View Profile
« Reply #3419 on: June 29, 2012, 01:45:28 am »
Ignore

Is McKenna a troll?
Logged

Please Senators, don't let the Russians, a folk of alcoholic homophobic, take Crimee
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14148


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #3420 on: June 29, 2012, 02:12:42 am »
Ignore

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded
Logged
bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3421 on: June 29, 2012, 07:27:35 pm »
Ignore

Not sure if this has been mentioned, but DelBene is on the air with a huge ad buy as of a few days ago and will be on air through the primary.

We'll see what Q2 fundraising totals look like, but I think there's a good chance she'll have the airwaves to herself.

Pretty good bio ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2StoaXE07TE&feature=player_embedded

She's pretty boring. I wish Ruderman (or even Hobbs) would emerge as the anti-Burner. I'm just not optimistic at all about this race, though.



McKenna is a crappy lawyer, continued:
http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/rob-mckenna-illegally-bars-stranger-reporter-from-press-conference

Also, I love the Stranger's take on the Seattle Times' endorsement of McKenna: http://slog.thestranger.com/slog/archives/2012/06/29/seattle-times-endorses-rob-mckenna-for-governor



I am starting to feel optimistic about the gubernatorial election, though. Smiley
Logged

bgwah
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13659
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.03, S: -6.96

View Profile
« Reply #3422 on: June 30, 2012, 01:10:28 am »
Ignore

Here are some WA-01 fundraising numbers I pulled from the FEC:

Total receipts
372k - DelBene
362k - Ruderman
338k - Koster
307k - Burner
169k - Rauniyar
119k - Hobbs

Cash on hand
318k - DelBene
220k - Ruderman
124k - Rauinyar
115k - Burner
104k - Koster
99k - Hobbs
Logged

MaxQue
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8202
Canada


View Profile
« Reply #3423 on: June 30, 2012, 01:52:00 am »
Ignore

Why DelBene try so hard? She changed districts and runs against someone else than Reichert?
Logged
Meeker
meekermariner
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14148


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -2.61

View Profile
« Reply #3424 on: June 30, 2012, 02:00:20 am »
Ignore

She didn't change districts (nor did Burner). They were redistricted into the 1st and out of the 8th.

Her going on the air in June indicates that either a) she had an incredible fundraising quarter or more likely b) she pumped in a big chunk of her own cash in since the last reporting period.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 132 133 134 135 136 [137] 138 139 140 141 142 ... 186 Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Logout

Powered by SMF 1.1.19 | SMF © 2013, Simple Machines